Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
425 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
JUST SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...WITH THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IN/OH WHILE THE COLD FRONT TRANSLATES
ACROSS EASTERN IL.  WHILE POCKETS OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT UPSTREAM...MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
THUS FAR REMAINS TIED TO THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE RESIDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...WHERE THE PERSISTENT ASCENT
WORKING OVER THIS SLAB CAN TAP THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESIDING
ABOVE 850 MB.  ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS CORRIDOR /ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-69/ THROUGH MID MORNING ENHANCED
VIA INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.  SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
CELLS.

TO THE SOUTH...EXPANDING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE
BRIEF INROADS THIS MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY GETTING PINCHED OFF WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ARRIVAL DURING 14-16Z WINDOW.  UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THE WANING NOCTURNAL
SURFACE INSTABILITY...STRUGGLING TO EVEN SUPPORT THUNDER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION.  00Z HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONFIRM THESE TRENDS...SUPPORTING JUST A NARROWING BAND OF SHOWERS
THIS MORNING PERIOD ACCOUNTING FOR THE SUSTAINED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHWARD WOBBLING SURFACE
WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.  THE MORNING
FRONTAL TIMING WILL MINIMIZE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEING RENEWED
SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE EXPANSION LOCALLY.

TRAILING ELEVATED FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
TIME...WITH A GOOD 850-700 MB FGEN RESPONSE NOTED IN THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.  THIS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD.   GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...WILL TAPER POPS
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT.   AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
UPSTREAM TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST LOW-MID 60S ARE ATTAINABLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WITH READINGS MAKING A RUN WELL INTO
THE 50S TOWARD THE NORTH /EXCEPT NORTHERN SAGINAW VALLEY AND
THUMB/.  TEMPERATURES THEN SEE A DOWNWARD SPIRAL THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW
30S. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...EVEN WITH MIXING LIMITED
TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL RACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WITH HEIGHTS
REBOUNDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING OUT OF THE PLAINS. DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND A 150 KNOT JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHWARD OR SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL
THEREFORE LEAVE POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR ANOTHER CYCLE. PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UP ONCE THE AREA CAN BE REFINED.

LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AGAIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVE STORM
TRACK WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION PLACING A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF IMPULSES RIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST FEATURES A LARGE GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH MAKING A RUN AT 70 DEGREES WHILE THE THUMB
REGION WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY LAKE HURON. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.  THIS WILL BRING GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON.  DIMINISHING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE REGION.  A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 213 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A 925MB
FRONT OVER THE KMBS TAF SITE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THEREFORE HAVE HELD THE THUNDER TO A TEMPO GROUP
INSTEAD OF PREVAILING WITH THIS SET OF TAFS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER ACROSS THE METRO
AIRPORTS...AND ADJUSTED THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS...THEN DOWN TO IFR WITH
THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...BEFORE ENDING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363...FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM
     TUESDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LHZ441-LHZ462-LHZ463...FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ442-LHZ443...FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO
     11 AM TUESDAY.

     BRISK WIND ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 11
     AM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....KEC
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURMISKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1246 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

MIZ047-048-053-054-040600-
BAY-MIDLAND-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-
1246 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1243 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SANFORD TO 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CHARLES...MOVING EAST AT 60
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR WILL OCCUR...RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS EARLY THIS MORNING.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SANFORD AND MERRILL BY 1255 AM EDT...
  ST. CHARLES AND MIDLAND BY 100 AM EDT...
  FREELAND BY 105 AM EDT...
  SAGINAW AND AUBURN BY 110 AM EDT...
  ZILWAUKEE AND KAWKAWLIN BY 115 AM EDT...
  MUNGER AND FRANKENMUTH BY 120 AM EDT...
  REESE AND QUANICASSEE BY 125 AM EDT...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

MR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
210 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

MIZ063-040630-
ST. CLAIR-
210 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 206 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM YALE TO 13
MILES SOUTH OF YALE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKEPORT BY 215 AM EDT...
  PORT HURON BY 220 AM EDT...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

MR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
402 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

MIZ047-048-053-040900-
BAY-MIDLAND-SAGINAW-
402 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 400 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLEMAN
TO 25 MILES WEST OF ST. CHARLES...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL.  RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED A HALF AN
INCH PER HOUR.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE EARLIER RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EDENVILLE AND SANFORD BY 405 AM EDT...
  MARION SPRINGS AND MIDLAND BY 410 AM EDT...
  ST. CHARLES AND FREELAND BY 415 AM EDT...
  AUBURN BY 420 AM EDT...
  LINWOOD AND ZILWAUKEE BY 425 AM EDT...
  ESSEXVILLE AND BRIDGEPORT BY 430 AM EDT...
  MUNGER BY 435 AM EDT...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

MR