Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Detroit, MI

233 
WWUS53 KDTX 222152
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
552 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIC087-099-125-147-222300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
LAPEER MI-OAKLAND MI-MACOMB MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
552 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR...
MACOMB...EASTERN OAKLAND AND LAPEER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM MARLETTE TO BIRMINGHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL 
STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM RUBY TO RICHMOND. PENNY SIZE HAIL 
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROSEVILLE AND STERLING HEIGHTS AROUND 555 PM EDT.
  ST. CLAIR SHORES AND FRASER AROUND 600 PM EDT.
  CLINTION TOWNSHIP AND MOUNT CLEMENS AROUND 605 PM EDT.
  MACOMB TOWNSHIP AND ROMEO AROUND 610 PM EDT.
  CHESTERFIELD TOWNSHIP AND ALLENTON AROUND 615 PM EDT.
  NEW HAVEN AND NEW BALTIMORE AROUND 620 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  WEST BLOOMFIELD...    LUM...                YALE...
  WARREN...             TROY...               STERLING HEIGHTS...
  ST. CLAIR SHORES...   ST. CLAIR...          SOUTHFIELD...
  ROYAL OAK...          ROMEO...              ROCHESTER...
  RICHMOND...           PORT HURON...         PONTIAC...
  OXFORD...             ORTONVILLE...         NOVI...
  NORTH BRANCH...       NEW BALTIMORE...      MOUNT CLEMENS...
  METAMORA...           MEMPHIS...            MARYSVILLE...
  MARINE CITY...        MACOMB TOWNSHIP...    LAPEER...
  LAKEPORT...           IMLAY CITY...         HARSENS ISLAND...
  HADLEY...             EMMETT...             DRYDEN...
  CLARKSTON...          CAPAC...              BIRMINGHAM...
  ARMADA...             ALMONT...             ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4261 8251 4256 8258 4252 8268 4256 8266
      4255 8272 4265 8263 4268 8268 4268 8269
      4264 8281 4256 8277 4254 8285 4245 8287
      4244 8349 4309 8346 4331 8313 4328 8300
      4315 8300 4317 8250 4297 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 225DEG 34KT 4330 8306 4262 8319
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT

165 
WWUS53 KDTX 222204
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
604 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIC087-099-125-147-222300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
LAPEER MI-OAKLAND MI-MACOMB MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
604 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR...
MACOMB...EASTERN OAKLAND AND EASTERN LAPEER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM BROWN CITY TO ROCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. 
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM LAKEPORT TO RATTLE RUN. 
PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MACOMB TOWNSHIP AND ROMEO AROUND 610 PM EDT.
  CHESTERFIELD TOWNSHIP AND ALLENTON AROUND 615 PM EDT.
  NEW HAVEN AND NEW BALTIMORE AROUND 620 PM EDT.
  PEARL BEACH AND ANCHORVILLE AROUND 625 PM EDT.
  ALGONAC AND RILEY CENTER AROUND 630 PM EDT.
  MARINE CITY AND ADAIR AROUND 635 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  LUM...                YALE...               WARREN...
  TROY...               STERLING HEIGHTS...   ST. CLAIR SHORES...
  ST. CLAIR...          SOUTHFIELD...         ROYAL OAK...
  ROMEO...              ROCHESTER...          RICHMOND...
  PORT HURON...         NEW BALTIMORE...      MOUNT CLEMENS...
  MEMPHIS...            MARYSVILLE...         MARINE CITY...
  MACOMB TOWNSHIP...    LAKEPORT...           IMLAY CITY...
  HARSENS ISLAND...     EMMETT...             DRYDEN...
  CAPAC...              BIRMINGHAM...         ARMADA...
  ALMONT...             ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4275 8247 4261 8251 4252 8267
      4256 8266 4255 8272 4267 8263 4268 8269
      4265 8280 4256 8277 4256 8283 4254 8285
      4245 8287 4245 8329 4331 8313 4328 8312
      4328 8300 4315 8300 4317 8250 4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 225DEG 34KT 4319 8300 4270 8308
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT

524 
WWUS53 KDTX 222216
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
616 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIC087-125-222226-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
LAPEER MI-OAKLAND MI-
616 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN OAKLAND AND EASTERN
LAPEER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4261 8251 4255 8264 4256 8266
      4255 8272 4265 8263 4267 8263 4268 8268
      4268 8269 4264 8281 4256 8277 4255 8284
      4251 8287 4245 8288 4245 8308 4270 8310
      4290 8298 4315 8300 4317 8250 4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 225DEG 34KT 4290 8293 4272 8287
          4257 8295

$$

MIC099-147-222300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
MACOMB MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
616 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR AND
MACOMB COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ARMADA TO MACOMB TOWNSHIP TO STERLING HEIGHTS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAPAC AND RILEY CENTER AROUND 625 PM EDT.
  CHESTERFIELD TOWNSHIP AND RICHMOND AROUND 630 PM EDT.
  NEW BALTIMORE AND EMMETT AROUND 635 PM EDT.
  BROCKWAY AND YALE AROUND 640 PM EDT.
  FARGO AND ALGONAC AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  RATTLE RUN AND RUBY AROUND 650 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  YALE...               WARREN...             STERLING HEIGHTS...
  ST. CLAIR SHORES...   ST. CLAIR...          ROMEO...
  RICHMOND...           PORT HURON...         NEW BALTIMORE...
  MOUNT CLEMENS...      MEMPHIS...            MARYSVILLE...
  MARINE CITY...        MACOMB TOWNSHIP...    LAKEPORT...
  HARSENS ISLAND...     EMMETT...             CAPAC...
  ARMADA...             ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4261 8251 4255 8264 4256 8266
      4255 8272 4265 8263 4267 8263 4268 8268
      4268 8269 4264 8281 4256 8277 4255 8284
      4251 8287 4245 8288 4245 8308 4270 8310
      4290 8298 4315 8300 4317 8250 4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 225DEG 34KT 4290 8293 4272 8287
          4257 8295
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT

441 
WWUS53 KDTX 222227
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
627 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIC099-147-222300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
MACOMB MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
627 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR AND
MACOMB COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 626 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EMMETT TO RICHMOND TO MOUNT CLEMENS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  COLUMBUS AND NEW BALTIMORE AROUND 635 PM EDT.
  BROCKWAY AND YALE AROUND 640 PM EDT.
  FARGO AND ALGONAC AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  MARINE CITY AND BLAINE AROUND 650 PM EDT.
  NORTH STREET AND JEDDO AROUND 655 PM EDT.
  PORT HURON AND MARYSVILLE AROUND 700 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  YALE...               WARREN...             ST. CLAIR SHORES...
  ST. CLAIR...          RICHMOND...           PORT HURON...
  NEW BALTIMORE...      MOUNT CLEMENS...      MEMPHIS...
  MARYSVILLE...         MARINE CITY...        MACOMB TOWNSHIP...
  LAKEPORT...           HARSENS ISLAND...     EMMETT...
  ARMADA...             ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4261 8251 4255 8264 4255 8272
      4265 8263 4267 8263 4268 8268 4268 8269
      4264 8281 4256 8277 4255 8284 4251 8287
      4245 8288 4245 8308 4316 8283 4317 8250
      4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 225DEG 34KT 4298 8282 4281 8271
          4265 8282
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT

556 
WWUS53 KDTX 222239
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
639 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIC099-147-222300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
MACOMB MI-ST. CLAIR MI-
639 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR AND
EASTERN MACOMB COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 635 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EMMETT TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. CLAIR TO NEW
BALTIMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLAINE AND JEDDO AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  ST. CLAIR AND PORT HURON AROUND 650 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  ST. CLAIR...          RICHMOND...           PORT HURON...
  NEW BALTIMORE...      MOUNT CLEMENS...      MEMPHIS...
  MARYSVILLE...         MARINE CITY...        MACOMB TOWNSHIP...
  LAKEPORT...           HARSENS ISLAND...     EMMETT...
  ALGONAC...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4261 8251 4255 8264 4255 8266
      4256 8267 4255 8272 4265 8263 4267 8263
      4268 8269 4264 8281 4256 8277 4256 8296
      4316 8274 4317 8250 4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 232DEG 47KT 4307 8266 4290 8255
          4274 8266
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT

480 
WWUS53 KDTX 222250
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
650 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIC099-222300-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
MACOMB MI-
650 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MACOMB COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4261 8251 4255 8264 4256 8267
      4255 8272 4259 8267 4259 8268 4265 8263
      4267 8263 4268 8268 4268 8271 4271 8273
      4316 8274 4317 8250 4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 232DEG 47KT 4316 8250 4299 8239
          4283 8251

$$

MIC147-222300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
ST. CLAIR MI-
650 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. CLAIR
COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 648 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LAKEPORT TO PORT HURON TO ST. CLAIR...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF ST. CLAIR
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4261 8251 4255 8264 4256 8267
      4255 8272 4259 8267 4259 8268 4265 8263
      4267 8263 4268 8268 4268 8271 4271 8273
      4316 8274 4317 8250 4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 232DEG 47KT 4316 8250 4299 8239
          4283 8251
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT

155 
WWUS53 KDTX 222301
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIC147-222310-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-110622T2300Z/
ST. CLAIR MI-
701 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ST. CLAIR COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE THROUGH 730 PM.

LAT...LON 4290 8246 4261 8251 4255 8264 4256 8267
      4255 8272 4259 8267 4259 8268 4265 8263
      4267 8263 4268 8268 4268 8271 4271 8273
      4316 8274 4317 8250 4298 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 232DEG 47KT 4316 8250 4299 8239
          4283 8251

$$

BT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
435 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AS
THE COLD FRONT WRAPS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SECONDARY
LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT TO ADRIAN HAS BEEN
SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STORMS TO
INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT HAS NOT SEEN AS MUCH CONVECTION. ML CAPES REMAIN AROUND
1000 J/KG FROM METRO DETROIT SOUTHWARDS. AS THE LEADING BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXITS TO THE EAST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE
NEED TO CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR THE SECOND LINE. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM AS THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THAT MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS DROP OFF QUICKLY TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OR
LESS USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARDS TOWARDS
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT BRINGING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AS
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH
REGIONAL RADARS DEPICT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS WE LOSE DIURNAL
HEATING OVERNIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIFTS
NORTH OVER LAKE HURON.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STACKED LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN MI ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. CYCLINIC FLOW
ALOFT AND A SATURATED COLUMN WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY LINGERS. THE LATEST NAM OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN MI LATE THURS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE COVERAGE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT AS IT EXITS OUR CWA. CONTINUED CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES PROMOTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AIR AND PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST DAY AS MANY AREAS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OVER 70 DEGREES. DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS ONTARIO NEXT TUES OR WED POTENTIALLY BRINGING WITH IT A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
RANGE...THE TENDENCY FOR NEW MODEL SOLUTIONS TO TRACK THE WAVE
FURTHER NORTH...AND THE CHC/CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE THREAT LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TO OUR EAST.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND
EVENTUALLY WEST BY FRIDAY.

IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 217 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

//DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES TROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KNOTS IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ANY OF
THE TERMINALS. TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 3/4 MILE. IN
ADVANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LARGELY COME TO
AN END BY 00Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS
WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR
CLOUDS TO THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY
INCREASES.

FOR DTW...

LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE
AIRPORT AFTER 19Z WITH A STRONGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
BETWEEN 20-22Z. THESE THUNDERSTORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AT
LEAST PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS IF THE STRONGEST CELLS MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH CEILINGS...CEILINGS WILL FALL TO 1500-2000
FEET AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILING WILL DROP BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 06Z AND
REMAIN BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
  19-23Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063...UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......KEC
AVIATION.....KEC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-230900-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FROM 2 TO
6 PM.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-230900-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FROM 2 TO
6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-230900-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FROM 2 TO 9 PM

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...DISPATCHERS PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LHZ361>363-230900-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HLO/KEC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
503 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             6 N RICHMOND            42.90N 82.75W
06/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       MACOMB             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY MEMPHIS FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
509 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     RUBY                    43.04N 82.61W
06/22/2011                   ST. CLAIR          MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO REPORTED IN MEMPHIS AT 430 PM

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
518 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             WASHINGTON              42.72N 83.04W
06/22/2011  E1.50 INCH       MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD ALSO REPORTED

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
519 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLINTION TOWNSHIP       42.59N 82.92W
06/22/2011  E65 MPH          MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
523 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURT                    43.24N 83.91W
06/22/2011  M62 MPH          SAGINAW            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MOSTEIKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
540 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SE AU GRES           43.93N 83.57W
06/22/2011  M54 MPH          LHZ422             MI   ASOS

&&

MOSTEIKO