Alert archive / Michigan / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 49, NWS Detroit, MI

November 29, 2011Macomb County, Michigan

NWS Detroit, MI issued this river flood warning at Nov 29, 2011, 9:42 AM EST for Macomb County, Michigan. It took effect at Nov 30, 2011, 5:57 PM EST. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Nov 29, 2011, 9:42 AM EST (14:42 UTC)
In effect from: Nov 30, 2011, 5:57 PM EST
Expired: Dec 1, 2011, 10:14 AM EST
In force: 16 hr
Issued by: NWS Detroit, MI
Flood severity: Minor

County Macomb County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point N. Br. Clinton River near Mount Clemens (MCLM4).

Action stage: 13 ft
Minor stage: 15 ft
Moderate stage: 16 ft
Major stage: 18 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04164500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

188 
WGUS43 KDTX 291442
FLWDTX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 
942 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

  CLINTON RIVER...NORTH BRANCH CLINTON

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

  CLINTON RIVER NEAR CLINTON TOWNSHIP AFFECTING MACOMB COUNTY

.RAINFALL OVER NIGHT OF AROUND AN INCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN
TODAY IS CAUSING THE SIGNIFICANT RISE IN THE RIVER.

MIC099-292242-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0048.111129T1555Z-111201T0824Z/
/FSRM4.2.ER.111129T1555Z.111130T0600Z.111201T0224Z.NO/
942 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE CLINTON RIVER IN STERLING HEIGHTS AND CLINTON TOWNSHIP..
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 15.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING...
  AND CREST AROUND 17.1 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST
  OF 18.5 FEET ON MAY 26 2011.  

$$

MIC099-292242-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FL.W.0049.111201T1108Z-111202T1200Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T1108Z.111201T1800Z.111202T0600Z.NO/
942 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS..
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 10.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...
  AND CREST AROUND 15.5 FEET THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST
  OF 15.3 FEET ON AUG 11 2009.  

$$

8 follow-up statements

869 
WGUS83 KDTX 292116
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING...

    CLINTON RIVER...LOWER ROUGE RIVER...MIDDLE ROUGE RIVER...MILL 
CREEK...NORTH BRANCH CLINTON...RIVER RAISIN...ROUGE RIVER

.BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY CAUSING THE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE RIVERS.  RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT CUTTING BACK ON RUNOFF INTO THE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND DO NOT DROWN.

&&

MIC163-300516-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-111201T1200Z/
/INKM4.2.ER.111129T1302Z.111130T0600Z.111201T0600Z.NO/
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  LOWER ROUGE RIVER IN INKSTER AND DEARBORN. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 10.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AROUND 12.0 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.


$$

MIC099-300516-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-111201T0300Z/
/FSRM4.2.ER.111129T1425Z.111130T0000Z.111130T2100Z.NO/
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  CLINTON RIVER IN STERLING HEIGHTS AND CLINTON TOWNSHIP.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 17.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT CREST AND SHOULD BEGIN 
  FALLING AND GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


$$

MIC115-300516-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0043.111130T0900Z-111205T1800Z/
/MONM4.1.ER.111130T0900Z.111202T1200Z.111205T1200Z.NO/
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM TUESDAY THE ESTIMATED STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW...
  AND CREST AROUND 9.7 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.


$$

MIC161-300516-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0044.111130T1500Z-111202T0300Z/
/DEXM4.1.ER.111130T1500Z.111201T0600Z.111201T2100Z.NR/
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  MILL CREEK AT DEXTER. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 10.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING...
  AND CREST AROUND 12.5 FEET THURSDAY MORNING.


$$

MIC163-300516-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0046.111130T0600Z-111201T0000Z/
/GACM4.1.ER.111130T0600Z.111130T0600Z.111130T1800Z.NR/
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  MIDDLE ROUGE RIVER IN WESTLAND AND DEARBORN HEIGHTS.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 3 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 9.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT.


$$

MIC163-300516-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0047.111130T0130Z-111201T1048Z/
/DETM4.1.ER.111130T0130Z.111130T1200Z.111201T0448Z.NO/
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  ROUGE RIVER IN DETROIT. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 3 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 13.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...
  AND CREST AROUND 15.9 FEET TOMORROW MORNING.


$$

MIC099-300516-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0049.111201T1147Z-111202T0957Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T1147Z.111201T1800Z.111202T0357Z.NO/
416 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 11.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...
  AND CREST AROUND 15.3 FEET THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.


$$

420
WGUS83 KDTX 300413
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1113 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING...

CLINTON RIVER...LOWER ROUGE RIVER...MILL CREEK...NORTH BRANCH
CLINTON...RIVER RAISIN...ROUGE RIVER

.RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND RESPOND FROM THE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.
RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE THE RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

MIC099-301213-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-111201T0600Z/
/FSRM4.2.ER.111129T1425Z.111130T0600Z.111201T0000Z.NO/
1113 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
CLINTON RIVER IN STERLING HEIGHTS AND CLINTON TOWNSHIP..
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 17.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT CREST AND SHOULD BEGIN
FALLING AND GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EVENING.

MIC115-301212-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-111205T1500Z/
/MONM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.111202T1200Z.111205T0900Z.NO/
1113 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE.
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11 PM TUESDAY THE OBSERVED STAGE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THE RIVER CRESTING AROUND 9.8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.

MIC161-301212-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0044.111201T0600Z-111201T1800Z/
/DEXM4.1.ER.111201T0600Z.111201T0600Z.111201T1200Z.NR/
1113 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
MILL CREEK AT DEXTER.
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 10.6 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MIC163-301212-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-111201T0600Z/
/INKM4.1.ER.111129T1302Z.111130T0600Z.111201T0000Z.NO/
1113 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
LOWER ROUGE RIVER IN INKSTER AND DEARBORN.
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 11.0 FEET AND NEARLY STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT CREST AND SHOULD BEGIN
FALLING AND GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EVENING.

MIC163-301212-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-111201T0824Z/
/DETM4.1.ER.111130T0052Z.111130T1200Z.111201T0224Z.NO/
1113 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ROUGE RIVER IN DETROIT.
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 15.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AROUND 16.3 FEET TOMORROW MORNING.

MIC099-301212-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0049.111201T0600Z-111201T1800Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T0600Z.111201T0600Z.111201T1200Z.NO/
1113 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS..
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE IS 12.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

360 
WGUS83 KDTX 301049
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
549 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING...

    CLINTON RIVER...LOWER ROUGE RIVER...MILL CREEK...NORTH BRANCH 
CLINTON...RIVER RAISIN...ROUGE RIVER

.RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS RUNOFF FROM UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
PERSISTS TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

&&

MIC099-301849-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-111201T0600Z/
/FSRM4.2.ER.111129T1425Z.111129T2100Z.111201T0000Z.NO/
549 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  CLINTON RIVER IN STERLING HEIGHTS AND CLINTON TOWNSHIP.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 16.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 17.6 FEET AT 10 PM TUESDAY
  AND SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.


$$

MIC115-301848-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-111205T1500Z/
/MONM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.111202T1200Z.111205T0900Z.NO/
549 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 6 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 9.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST AT 9.8 FEET
  ON FRIDAY.


$$

MIC161-301848-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0044.111201T0600Z-111201T1800Z/
/DEXM4.1.ER.111201T0600Z.111201T0600Z.111201T1200Z.NR/
549 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  MILL CREEK AT DEXTER. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 11.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.


$$

MIC163-301848-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-111201T0600Z/
/INKM4.1.ER.111129T1302Z.111130T0915Z.111201T0000Z.NO/
549 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  LOWER ROUGE RIVER IN INKSTER AND DEARBORN. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 11.4 FEET AND NEARLY STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY CRESTING AND SHOULD FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.


$$

MIC163-301848-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-111201T0824Z/
/DETM4.1.ER.111130T0052Z.111130T0930Z.111201T0224Z.NO/
549 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  ROUGE RIVER IN DETROIT. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 16.4 FEET AND NEARLY STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CURRENTLY CRESTING AND SHOULD FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.


$$

MIC099-301848-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0049.111201T0600Z-111201T1800Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T0600Z.111201T0600Z.111201T1200Z.NO/
549 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 13.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.


$$

000 
WGUS83 KDTX 301617
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1117 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING...

    LOWER ROUGE RIVER...NORTH BRANCH CLINTON...RIVER RAISIN...ROUGE 
RIVER

.RECENT RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THESE BASINS HAS LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND DO NOT DROWN.

&&

MIC115-010017-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-111205T0800Z/
/MONM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.111202T1200Z.111205T0200Z.NO/
1117 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 11 AM WEDNESDAY THE ESTIMATED STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST AROUND 9.9 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

MIC163-010017-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-111201T1255Z/
/INKM4.1.ER.111129T1302Z.111130T1800Z.111201T0655Z.NO/
1117 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  LOWER ROUGE RIVER IN INKSTER AND DEARBORN. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 11.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT CREST AND SHOULD BEGIN 
  FALLING AND GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$

MIC163-010017-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-111201T0727Z/
/DETM4.1.ER.111130T0052Z.111130T1115Z.111201T0127Z.NO/
1117 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  ROUGE RIVER IN DETROIT. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 16.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 16.4 FEET AT 6 AM WEDNESDAY
  AND SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.


$$

MIC099-010017-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0049.111201T1200Z-111201T1800Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T1200Z.111201T1200Z.111201T1200Z.NO/
1117 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 14.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AT FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.


$$

022 
WGUS83 KDTX 302124
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
424 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING...

    LOWER ROUGE RIVER...NORTH BRANCH CLINTON...RIVER RAISIN...ROUGE 
RIVER

.RECENT RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THESE RIVER BASINS HAS LED
TO THE SIGNIFICANT RISE IN THE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND DO NOT DROWN.

&&

MIC091-115-010524-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111204T0300Z/
/BLIM4.2.ER.111130T0946Z.111201T1800Z.111203T2100Z.NR/
424 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT BLISSFIELD. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 685.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 683.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AROUND 686.6 FEET TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


$$

MIC115-010524-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-111205T0900Z/
/MONM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.111202T1200Z.111205T0300Z.NO/
424 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 9.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER SHOULD CREST AROUND 9.9 FEET 
  FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

MIC163-010524-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-111201T1505Z/
/INKM4.1.ER.111129T1302Z.111130T1845Z.111201T0905Z.NO/
424 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  LOWER ROUGE RIVER IN INKSTER AND DEARBORN. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 11.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED AT 11.7 FEET AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY
  AND SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.


$$

MIC163-010524-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-111201T0827Z/
/DETM4.1.ER.111130T0052Z.111130T1115Z.111201T0227Z.NO/
424 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  ROUGE RIVER IN DETROIT. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 15.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.

$$

MIC099-010524-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0049.111130T2257Z-111202T0000Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111130T2257Z.111201T0600Z.111201T1800Z.NO/
424 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 14.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING
  AND CREST AROUND 15.2 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.


$$

609 
WGUS83 KDTX 010347
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1047 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING...

    LOWER ROUGE RIVER...NORTH BRANCH CLINTON...RIVER RAISIN

.RECENT RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THESE RIVER BASINS HAS LED
TO FLOODING IN THE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...AVOID THE BANKS OF THESE RIVERS BOTH IN VEHICLES
AND ON FOOT. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

&&

MIC091-115-011147-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111204T0335Z/
/BLIM4.2.ER.111130T0946Z.111201T1800Z.111203T2135Z.NR/
1047 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT BLISSFIELD. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 685.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 683.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AROUND 686.5 FEET THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.


$$

MIC115-011147-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0051.111201T1240Z-111205T0130Z/
/DNDM4.2.ER.111201T1240Z.111202T1800Z.111204T1930Z.NR/
1047 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT DUNDEE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 647.9 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 650.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING...
  AND CREST AROUND 652.5 FEET FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.


$$

MIC115-011147-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-111205T0900Z/
/MONM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.111202T0600Z.111205T0300Z.NO/
1047 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT CREST AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.


$$

MIC163-011147-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-111201T2024Z/
/INKM4.1.ER.111129T1302Z.111130T1845Z.111201T1424Z.NO/
1047 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  LOWER ROUGE RIVER IN INKSTER AND DEARBORN. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 8 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY LATE 
  MORNING.



$$

MIC099-011147-
/O.EXT.KDTX.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-111201T2000Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T0055Z.111201T0600Z.111201T1400Z.NO/
1047 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 15.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AROUND 15.2 FEET SHORTLY
  AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY LATE MORNING.

$$

BT

619 
WGUS83 KDTX 011059
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
559 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

...A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING...

    LOWER ROUGE RIVER...NORTH BRANCH CLINTON...RIVER RAISIN

.RECENT RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THESE RIVER BASINS HAS LED
TO FLOODING IN THE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...AVOID THE BANKS OF THESE RIVERS BOTH IN VEHICLES
AND ON FOOT. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

&&

MIC091-115-011859-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-111204T0335Z/
/BLIM4.2.ER.111130T0946Z.111201T1800Z.111203T2135Z.NR/
559 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT BLISSFIELD. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 6 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 685.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 683.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AROUND 686.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.


$$

MIC115-011859-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0051.111201T1240Z-111205T0130Z/
/DNDM4.2.ER.111201T1240Z.111202T1800Z.111204T1930Z.NR/
559 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT DUNDEE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 647.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 650.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING...
  AND CREST AROUND 652.5 FEET TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.


$$

MIC115-011859-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-111205T0900Z/
/MONM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.111202T0600Z.111205T0300Z.NO/
559 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  RIVER RAISIN AT MONROE. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE IS 9.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST IS TO CREST AT ABOUT 9.9 FEET EARLY FRIDAY.

$$

MIC163-011858-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-111201T2024Z/
/INKM4.1.ER.111129T1302Z.111130T1845Z.111201T1424Z.NO/
559 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  LOWER ROUGE RIVER IN INKSTER AND DEARBORN. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE IS 10.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS 
MORNING.


$$

MIC099-011858-
/O.CON.KDTX.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-111201T2000Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T0055Z.111201T1200Z.111201T1400Z.NO/
559 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS.. 
* FROM NOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. 
* AT 4 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE IS 14.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* FORECAST IS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING...
  AND CREST AROUND 15.1 FEET LATER TODAY.


$$

550 
WGUS83 KDTX 011514
FLSDTX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1014 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011



...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING...
   
   NORTH BRANCH CLINTON
    

.NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

&&

MIC099-011544-
/X.CAN.KDTX.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-111201T2000Z/
/MCLM4.1.ER.111201T0055Z.111201T0345Z.111201T0530Z.NO/
1014 AM EST THU DEC 1 2011

FLOOD WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR 
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON NEAR MT CLEMENS.. 
* AT 9 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE IS 14.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT AND WILL
  CONTINUE TO FALL...THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 29, 6:09 AM EST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 29, 6:09 AM EST, 3 hours 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
609 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE REGION OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH TO LAKE ERIE
BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC
LIFR CIGS IN HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. GUSTS WILL REACH 25
KNOTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS AT MBS GIVEN THE FLOW
OFF OF SAGINAW BAY. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW BETWEEN 23Z
AND 02Z WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
FROM PTK TO FNT/MBS WHERE THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR FASTEST.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 300 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

SHORT TERM...TODAY

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH TO
AROUND LAKE ERIE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH...EXPECT SOME OF THIS RAIN TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE AND WILL
MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL TRUNCATE THE
END TIME DUE TO THE EVENTUAL EXPECTED CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HEAVIER
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MATURE TROWAL OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG ASCENT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF STRONG (150+ KT) JET POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD
CORE OF AIR...SHIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION COINCIDES WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF
ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WRAPPING IN THE SYSTEM. BY AND LARGE...THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-23 DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
SAGINAW VALLEY TO THE LOW/MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA INCLUDING
MUCH OF METRO DETROIT.

LONG TERM...

THE MODEL TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE CLEAR...FASTER TIMING...AND
MAIN LOW TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST...IN BETWEEN LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO.
THIS IS IMPORTANT...AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A FASTER WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 00-03Z WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THE TOUGH PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LIKELY BE CONSTRICTING TONIGHT...AS THE
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS...MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN
(SURFACE DEW PTS IN TEENS AND 20S) INFILTRATES THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. A VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT LOOKS TO EXIST WITH THE
STRONG BUT STRETCHED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION...AND MIDLAND COUNTY
LOOKS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS GRADIENT (SEE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL).

ON THE FLIP SIDE...THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HELP WITH WET BULBING
EFFECTS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE SNOW...BUT DBZ IS
VERY HIGH UP AND STILL DIFFICULT TO GAUGE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE WASTED DUE TO THE WET GROUND. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY FALL TO FREEZING AND BELOW...ASSURING THE SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO STICK. SKEWING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE COLDER AND CONSISTENT 00Z
EUROPEAN...EXPECTATIONS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG AND WEST
OF U.S 23...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST. LOOKING AT MOSTLY AROUND 1 INCH
TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MONROE COUNTY...AS THE MARGINALLY
MILDER MARINE LAYER HOLDS ON AND MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE CITY OF
DETROIT AND MONROE COUNTY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA...LIMITING THE QPF. JUST ABOUT ALL THE SNOW
SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ALONG/WEST OF U.S 23...UNTREATED
ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND/OR ICY BY THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN
THIRD/HALF OF THE CWA...JUST IN CASE THE CHANGEOVER IS EVEN FASTER
(BEFORE 00Z). THERE HAVE BEEN PAST EVENTS WHERE HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INITIALLY WARM/WET GROUND
RATHER QUICKLY. OAKLAND COUNTY WAS INCLUDED IN THE WATCH...BUT
THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE COUNTY DUE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY...ROYAL OAK...FOR EXAMPLE...WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SEE AN INCH OR TWO.

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. ONE
TROUGH/FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE SECOND ONE COMING
THROUGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH TO LAKE ERIE. HENCE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE AS NORTHEAST GALES DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON BY
MIDDAY. WILL BRING THE START OF THE GALE WARNINGS FORWARD TO 18Z AS
GUSTS SHOULD BE REACHING THE 35 KNOT RANGE BY THEN...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MINIMAL GALES FURTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT WILL LARGELY COVER THE
SITUATION AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES WITH THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON WHERE
THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS THE GREATEST. THIS PREFERRED REGION OF
STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO SAGINAW BAY WHERE FUNNELING WILL
FURTHER INCREASE WINDS. GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WILL BE
COMMON FOR THE WARNED AREA. HIGHER END GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL LAKE HURON INTO SAGINAW BAY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
COUPLE OF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ON AN INFREQUENT AND ISOLATED BASIS.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVES INTO THE 13 TO 16 FOOT RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE HURON...INCLUDING THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
ALONG THE THUMB FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH. THE NORTHEASTERLY
FETCH WILL ALSO RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET FOR THE
REMAINING NEARSHORE ZONES. EVEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
ON WEDNESDAY....COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS
TO REACH GALE CRITERIA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

     WINTER STORM WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ053-MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ068-
     MIZ069-MIZ075-MIZ082...FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-
     LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

     FLOOD WATCH...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
     BEACH...UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 29, 3:52 AM EST, 5 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-068-069-075-082-300915-
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-WASHTENAW-
LENAWEE-
352 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
U.S. 23.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. REFER TO THE
LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGES AND ZONE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ049-054-055-062-063-070-076-083-300915-
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-MACOMB-WAYNE-MONROE-
352 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. 23.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE
LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE AND ZONE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-300915-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
352 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF LAKE
HURON...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.
REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 28, 9:19 PM EST	Small Craft Advisory	DTX		25 hr
Nov 28, 9:57 PM EST	River Flood Warning	DTX	Monroe	6 days
Nov 28, 9:57 PM EST	River Flood Warning	DTX	Washtenaw	37 hr
Nov 28, 9:57 PM EST	River Flood Warning	DTX	Wayne	64 hr
Nov 28, 9:57 PM EST	River Flood Warning	DTX	Wayne	25 hr
Nov 28, 9:57 PM EST	River Flood Warning	DTX	Wayne	48 hr
Nov 29, 3:22 AM EST	Winter Storm Watch	DTX	Bay, Genesee, Lenawee, Livingston, Midland, Oakland and 3 more	12 hr
Nov 29, 3:19 PM EST	Wind Advisory	DTX	Bay, Huron, Saginaw	9 hr
Nov 29, 3:36 PM EST	Winter Weather Advisory	DTX	Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 7 more	12 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2011 Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.