Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Watches in 2011

Gale Watch 21, NWS Detroit, MI

November 11, 2011

NWS Detroit, MI issued this gale watch at Nov 11, 2011, 10:05 PM EST. It took effect at Nov 13, 2011, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 11, 2011, 10:05 PM EST (03:05 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 13, 2011, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Nov 13, 2011, 4:02 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

322 
WHUS73 KDTX 120305
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1005 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SOUTHWEST TO WEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY AS THE WINDS CHANNEL
THROUGH THAT AREA. 

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVING OVER THE LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS
BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
FURTHER BY SUNDAY AND WINDS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.

LHZ421-422-120900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-111112T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
1005 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM. 
 
REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-121515-
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T1200Z-111114T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
1005 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST SUNDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SUNDAY BEFORE
  WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

BT
3 follow-up statements
232 
WHUS73 KDTX 120846
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...SOUTHWEST TO WEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.DRY...WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER 
AREA WATERWAYS AND THUS...NO MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.  
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...AS A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING THE 
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE STRONG END OF THE SPECTRUM. A GALE 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON TO ACCOUNT FOR 
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY PRECEDING THE LOW CENTER...AND ALSO IN THE 
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ATTM...THERE 
REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS ACCOUNTING FOR 
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE GALE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
ALL OF THE WATERS OF LAKE HURON.

LHZ421-422-122130-
/O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-111112T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
346 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY. 

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-122130-
/O.EXB.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0300Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
346 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ462>464-122130-
/O.EXB.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T1500Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
346 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-122130-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
346 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE 
  LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-122130-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T1500Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
346 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
591 
WHUS73 KDTX 122104
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
404 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...SOUTHWEST TO WEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.FIFTEEN KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR GUSTS TO REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS
LAKE HURON DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY..ALTHOUGH ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE TO PRECLUDE AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS POINT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MIXING DEEPENS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE BETWEEN 21Z
AND 03Z LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY
AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

LCZ460-LEZ444-130930-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.111113T1300Z-111114T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  32 KNOTS.  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-130930-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T1800Z-111114T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-130930-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111114T0300Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE 
  LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ462>464-130930-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-130930-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-130930-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0300Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
404 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$
622 
WHUS73 KDTX 130902
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY GALES EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE...

.A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE 
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE AN ALREADY TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL 
LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY OVER AREA WATERWAYS BOTH IN 
ADVANCE AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE WARM AIR 
INFILTRATING THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE WATER 
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOW A LITTLE COOLER WILL LEAD TO STABLE 
CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE MARINE 
FORECAST. HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WERE LARGELY MADE 
ON THOSE ZONES THAT WILL SEE A LONGER FETCH...SUCH AS THE OPEN LAKE 
ZONES OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A 
GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE 
ERIE. THAT DECISION WAS BASED ON OFFSHORE FLOW FROM OHIO SHOULD BE 
STRONGER DUE TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS...SOLIDLY REACHING 35 KNOTS. 
FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES NOT MENTIONED...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 
25-30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDSPEEDS SHOULD GET CLOSE ACROSS 
SAGINAW BAY..BUT BEHAVIOR OF OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS A 
STABLE REGIME IS ALREADY IN PLACE.

LHZ362-363-131015-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WATCH. 

$$

LHZ361-131015-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111114T0300Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WATCH. 

$$

LEZ444-132115-
/O.UPG.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.111113T1300Z-111114T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0056.111113T1500Z-111114T0300Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ462>464-132115-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0056.111113T1500Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-132115-
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.111113T0902Z-111114T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T2100Z-111114T0300Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-132115-
/O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.111113T0902Z-111114T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.111113T1800Z-111114T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-132115-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.111113T0902Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
402 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale watch went out at Nov 11, 7:03 PM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 11, 7:03 PM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR STRATOCU WILL BE EXCHANGED FOR ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH AND
THINNING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT IN THE PLAINS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE AIR IS ON THE DRY
SIDE, EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHICH IS ONE REASON LOWER CLOUDS
ARE NOT INDICATED IN OBSERVATIONS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT PRESS TIME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NIGHT
AS MID 30S SURFACE DEWPOINT MAKES A RUN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH COOLING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AROUND SUNRISE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MVFR
STRATUS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE GRADIENT WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. OUR
AREA WILL THEN BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PUNCTUATED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET
BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 341 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

A SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
LAKES. THE STRATOCU FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW
MORE BREAKS WHILE ALSO STARTING TO LOSE THE MOISTURE FEED FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN BENEATH SUBSIDENCE AND A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A
LITTLE BIT OF HIGH CLOUD LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING BELOW 900MB
OVERNIGHT. BOTH MODELS DEPICT LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWEST
500 FT AFTER 08Z. HARD TO DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS MIGHT
BE...OR IF IT WAITS TO APPEAR UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE HEATING AND CU
UP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE STRATUS WILL BE THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHICH WILL BE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS SHOULD HOLD
UP NEAR 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...LIMITING COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. MIN TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST
LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW 30S.

LONG TERM...

MILDER THIS WEEKEND.

COMPACT BUT VERY STRONG PV ANOMALY NEAR VANCOUVER WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS LOW LEVEL JET EXCEEDS 50
KNOTS BY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE WINDY SUNDAY...BUT USUALLY TOUGH TO GET
WIND ADVISORY TYPE WIND IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN (NOT UNHEARD OF
HOWEVER). IT APPEARS LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE
STRONG INVERSION...AS GFS/NAM BOTH SHOWING SATURATION AT 925
MB...WITH THAT MOISTURE DEPTH EVEN EXTENDING TO 850 MB...THUS AN
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE FOR AT LEAST DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES WITH THE 285-290
K ISENTROPIC ASSENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT...THE 12Z UKMET
WOULD ARGUE FOR SHOWERS...AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHANCE
POPS. MAXES ARE DIFFICULT...AS THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS TO REACH AND EXCEED 60 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
ASSUMING LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN
BREAKS OUT...WILL HOLD MAXES IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH EXPECTATIONS OF
FULL SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO HIT 60 DEGREES...BASED ON THE 12Z NAMS FORECASTED 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10 C...BUT THAT SEEMS A TOUCH HIGH AND DRAMATIC JUMP
OFF THE MORNING LOWS. WILL FAVOR MID TO UPPER 50S.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING...SETTING
US UP FOR SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS POLAR
JET WILL BE OVERHEAD OR CLOSE BY...WITH TIGHT THICKNESS PACKING
STRUNG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...SOME ROOM FOR ERROR AS
WE GO OUT IN TIME. WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WORK WEEK...DUE TO
OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MAKING TIMING DIFFICULT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
INDICATING THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL BE MORE INVOLVED IN
OUR WEATHER AS WELL...POTENTIALLY INDICATING A WETTER TUESDAY PERIOD
AND SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS STRONGER WITH THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY...WHICH ALLOWS TUESDAY'S SYSTEM TO
JUST MISS US. BLENDED POPS INDICATE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON FOR HIGH WAVES HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CHANNELS THROUGH
THE SAGINAW BAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE INNER PORTION OF THE BAY.

FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WARMER AIR ADVECTING
OVER THE LAKES IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 15-20
KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY. A TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY AND WINDS ON THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON MAY APPROACH GALE
FORCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......KEC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 11, 4:08 PM EST, 5 hours 57 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
408 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120900-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
408 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LHZ421-422-120900-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
408 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SAGINAW BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAGINAW BAY. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464-120900-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
408 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KEC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 12, 4:04 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryDTX36 hr

Nearby

Gale Watches in Michigan, 2011Every gale watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.