Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Warnings in 2011

Gale Warning 62, NWS Detroit, MI

December 18, 2011

NWS Detroit, MI issued this gale warning at Dec 18, 2011, 9:20 AM EST. It took effect at Dec 18, 2011, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 18, 2011, 9:20 AM EST (14:20 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 18, 2011, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 19, 2011, 7:00 AM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

318 
WHUS73 KDTX 181420
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
920 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SOUTHWEST GALES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON TONIGHT...

.MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND BACK TOWARD THE 
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN 
ONTARIO. WHILE THE RELATIVELY STABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT 
WIND GUST POTENTIAL...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 35 
KNOT GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS 
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW 
BAY. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL 
OVERSPREAD AREA WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT WINDS 
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN 
BRING RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL A WEAK LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE 
SOUTHERN LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LHZ362-363-462-190300-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0026.111219T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0062.111219T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
920 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-441-190300-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0026.111219T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.111219T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
920 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-190300-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.111219T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
920 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SF
4 follow-up statements
412 
WHUS73 KDTX 182034
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
334 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SOUTHWEST GALES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON TONIGHT...

.SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AS 
A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH ONTARIO...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO AN 
INCREASINGLY STABLE PROFILE TONIGHT...WINDS ARE ARE STILL EXPECTED 
TO TOP OUT AROUND 35 KNOT GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE 
HURON...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE 
WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL 
OVERSPREAD AREA WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT WINDS 
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TOP OUT ONLY AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN 
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING RELATIVELY QUIET 
CONDITIONS UNTIL A WEAK LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES BY THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LHZ362-363-462-190845-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0062.111219T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
334 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441-190845-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.111219T0000Z-111219T1700Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
334 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-442-443-190845-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.111219T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
334 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
466 
WHUS73 KDTX 190305
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SOUTHWEST GALES OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON TONIGHT...

.SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR LEADING TO AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE PROFILE TONIGHT...WINDS ARE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
AROUND 35 KNOT GALES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE
HURON...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD AREA WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY...BUT WINDS
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TOP OUT ONLY AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING RELATIVELY
QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL A WEAK LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LHZ362-363-462-191200-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-191515-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111219T2100Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LARGEST
  EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL
  MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-441-191515-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111220T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LARGEST
  EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL
  MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-191515-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111220T2100Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1005 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY AFTER
  THE WIND SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
328 
WHUS73 KDTX 190844
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALES WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING...

.AVAILABLE MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST A GOOD 
PROBABILITY OF SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE 
HURON WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY GALES 
ARE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON 
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT 
WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS 
WILL ACTUALLY DIE DOWN ALONG THE FRONT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A 
BIT. COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOWEVER LEAD TO UNSTABLE 
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER 
THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREAD THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON 
WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF 
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LHZ362-363-462-191200-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
344 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-192045-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111219T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
344 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-192045-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111220T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
344 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-192045-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111219T2100Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
344 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441-192045-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111220T2100Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
344 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
565 
WHUS73 KDTX 191211
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
711 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALES HAVE SUBSIDED...

.AVAILABLE MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST A GOOD 
PROBABILITY OF SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE 
HURON WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY GALES 
ARE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON 
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT 
WILL BE MARKED BY A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS 
WILL ACTUALLY DIE DOWN ALONG THE FRONT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A 
BIT. COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOWEVER LEAD TO UNSTABLE 
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER 
THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREAD THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK LOW 
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON 
WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF 
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LHZ362-363-462-191315-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-111219T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
711 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

LHZ422-192100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111219T2100Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
711 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441-200015-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111220T2100Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
711 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-192100-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111219T2100Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
711 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-200015-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-111220T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
711 AM EST MON DEC 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 23 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 18, 6:01 AM EST, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 18, 6:01 AM EST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
601 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF AT THE AIRFIELDS WITH THE LAST OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
STRATUS DECK INCREASES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...DEACTIVATING LAKE MICHIGAN
AND FILTERING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. ONCE THE STRATUS DECK
SCATTERS...VFR WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS ONLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO MVFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS MORNING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CEILIGNS BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 331 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

SHORT TERM...TODAY

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FORCING...AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDES EAST
OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER
WAVE RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW GIVING HIGH
TEMPS A NICE BOOST INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. STRATUS SHOULD
HANG TOUGH UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL BACKS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL NOT BE MODIFIED BY LAKE MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY
ADVECTING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS MIX OUT...THOUGH SOME SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A HIGH CIRRUS DECK BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS
STRENGTHENING SWRLY WINDS ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...SENDING 925MB TEMPS UP TO +6C BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT...
APPROACHING THE 40 DEGREE MARK BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS SE MI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC ON
MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOW FAIRLY AGRESSIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST
925-700MB THETA E ADVECTION EXPECTED AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
BRIEF...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE ALONG/IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ONLY EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 800MB. ALTHOUGH
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST QUITE GOOD FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSED AROUND THE
925MB LEVEL AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC
FRONT...THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONFINE ANY PRECIP TO LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ON MONDAY.

STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OVERSPREAD LOWER MI MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL LOWER MI BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO SRN MI UNDER THE NORTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SURFACE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST FOR SE MI. THE 00Z MODEL
SUITE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS UPPER LOW
GETTING EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUES INTO WED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE DROPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFIES OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...WITH THE GFS
REMAINING THE FASTEST SOLUTION. IN LIGHT OF THE ARRAY OF
GUIDANCE...CHANCE TYPE POPS CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW GIVEN THE
RESIDUAL COLD AND DRY AIR OVER SRN MI. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HOWEVER BE ADEQUATE TO TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
COURSE OF THE EVENT. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT NOW AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE SUITE IN NO PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SRN CANADA. WHICH INDICATES THE COLD AIR
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE. SO MOST OF THE PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE LIQUID FORM.

MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COOLING TREND THURS INTO FRIDAY.

MARINE...

MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO. WHILE THE RELATIVELY STABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
WIND GUST POTENTIAL...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LOW END GALE FROM SAGINAW BAY INTO CENTRAL LAKE HURON LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
FREQUENTLY EXCEED 6 FEET IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND
APPROACH 10 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS. BECAUSE WINDS WILL BORDER ON
GALE CRITERIA...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME THAT GALES
WILL ACTUALLY BE ACHIEVED. THEREFORE...THE GALE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD AREA
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RELATIVELY
QUIET CONDITIONS UNTIL A WEAK LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN LAKES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ462...FROM 7 PM
     SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 18, 3:43 AM EST, 5 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
343 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-190845-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
343 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-190845-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
343 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-190845-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
343 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 18, 9:20 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryDTX42 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Michigan, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.