Gale Warning 56, NWS Detroit, MI

798 
WHUS73 KDTX 132044
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING 
HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  THIS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BRING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THIS 
TIME.  GUST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY 
SLIGHTLY STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTED MIXING HEIGHTS.  
RECENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LAKE HURON INDICATE GUSTS PREDOMINATELY 
WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  MARGINAL GALES WILL EXIST OVER 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE 
ERIE...WITH 35 KNOT GUSTS TENDING TO BE MORE ISOLATED FROM SAGINAW 
BAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE 
GRADIENT SLACKENS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY 
WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LEZ444-140300-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-111114T0300Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
344 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ462>464-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
344 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
344 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-441>443-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
344 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

659 
WHUS73 KDTX 140257
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
957 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...

.STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  THIS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BRING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THIS 
TIME.  GUST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY 
SLIGHTLY STABLE OVERLAKE CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTED MIXING HEIGHTS.  
RECENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LAKE HURON INDICATE GUSTS PREDOMINATELY 
WITHIN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  MARGINAL GALES WILL EXIST OVER 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE 
ERIE...WITH 35 KNOT GUSTS TENDING TO BE MORE ISOLATED FROM SAGINAW 
BAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE 
GRADIENT SLACKENS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY 
WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LEZ444-140400-
/O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-111114T0300Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
957 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 24 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY. 

$$

LHZ462>464-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
957 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
957 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP 
  TO 26 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-441>443-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
957 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RK

078 
WHUS73 KDTX 140455
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE WIND SPEED BEHIND THE FRONT. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LAKE HURON INDICATE GUSTS PREDOMINATELY WITHIN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. 

LHZ462>464-140600-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1155 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 35 KNOTS AND
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

$$

LEZ444-140900-
/O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
1155 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM
  EST MONDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
1155 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM
  MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-441>443-140900-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-111114T0900Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1155 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 27 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET NEAR THE TIP
  OF THE THUMB.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM
  MONDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
SD/NE/CO WILL MAKE FAST TRACKS TODAY...PASSING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. THE VERY FAST MOVEMENT
WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE BY TWO THINGS...BEING FLUSHED EASTWARD ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A +130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND A LACK
OF DYNAMICAL INTERACTION WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. WV IMAGERY AND
500MB HEIGHTS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE IS CERTAINLY A
RESPECTABLE FEATURE...BUT OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
COUPLE OF THINGS TO NOTE ABOUT THIS FEATURE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL GO FROM NEUTRAL TO A NEGATIVE TILT BETWEEN
6-12Z...SIGNALING FURTHER OCCLUSION BEYOND 12Z. THERE IS A LACK OF A
DEFINITIVE MIDLEVEL LOW CIRCULATION BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES IN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WILL TAKE ON CHARACTERISTICS SIMILAR TO A FRONTAL WAVE.
WHAT THERE WILL BE IS AN OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/LOCALIZED
PRESSURE GRADIENT SWINGING THROUGH 00-6Z THIS EVENING. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THIS TIMING WILL COINCIDE WITH A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
COLD FRONT.

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL RESIDE IN A QUASI WARM SECTOR TODAY AHEAD
OF THE INBOUND SHORTWAVE. WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES THIS MORNING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ABUNDANT CLOUD IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS
DESPITE FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION (900-800MB). LOCAL RADAR
IMAGERY IS DEPICTING VIRGA THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. AS DAYTIME INSOLATION OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TO MIX TO ROUGHLY 900MB. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY
REACHING UP TO 40 MPH SOUTH OF M 59...35 MPH TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS
TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH A NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE SHOULD PUT A CAP ON
MIXING HEIGHT POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR 60
DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS.

LATEST THINKING ON TIMING OF THE MODEST COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FOR
00-6Z TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL NOT VEER ALL THAT MUCH GOING
FROM 210 PRE FRONT TO 240 POST FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT NOISY...NAM
AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
WILL ARRIVE COINCIDENT/JUST TRAILING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC COLD
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE 800MB CAPPING INVERSION WILL
ERODE...PROVIDING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY...UPWARDS OF 100
J/KG WITH CHARACTER OF ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY TAKING ON SHOWER FORM
ALONG THE FRONT. EXACTLY WHAT THIS CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DO IN
MIXING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS IS UP FOR DEBATE AND REMAINS A
PERIOD 1/SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT THOUGH
STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL WILL DOWNTICK AFTER SUNDOWN WITH NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION PROCESSES...AGAIN IGNORING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER DUE TO CONVECTION. ALL SIGNS POINT TO LOW END DYNAMICS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHAT MAY BE THE MOST TELLING ASPECT IS THE
AMOUNT OF PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE...WHICH DOES NOT
LEND MUCH ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SUPPORT (NO REAL AVA SIGNATURE AS
WELL). SURFACE WINDSPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 MPH FOR A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING BUT FALL OFF PRECIPITOUSLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

THE DEEPENING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE SERN US
WILL TIGHTEN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL IN TURN
SUPPORT THE STRENGTHENING OF AN UPPER JET MAX ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ALL
GENERALLY INDICATE THE 250MB JET INCREASING TO 160 TO 170 KTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW NOW ROTATING
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONAL ON MONDAY...LEADING TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SRN MI.

MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN EARNEST MONDAY
MORNING...TIED LARGELY TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THE
00Z MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTING ACROSS THE
MI/OH BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL A FAIRLY
STEEP SLOPE TO THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
CANADA...WHICH IN TURN HAS LED TO A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FRONT. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SFC-925MB
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THIS REGION WILL BE THE MORE
ACTIVE...WHICH WOULD TARGET METRO DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTH FOR HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ON MONDAY. ANY MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY STILL INVOKE A RESPONSE ALONG THE MID
TROPOSPHERIC PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REVISIT THIS IDEA IF MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DEEP
LAYER OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SFC-925MB FRONT.

MODEL TRENDS SUPPORTING MORE AMPLIFICATION TO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
TROUGH INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS
SLIDING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG
AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE...HAVE REMOVED ALL
CHANCES OF RAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL ADVECT
THE COLDEST AIR THUS FAR THIS SEASON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -8 TO -10C BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WED-THURS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES EXPECTED DUE TO THE MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE
CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS COLD SPELL WILL BE BRIEF AS LONG
WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADS TO MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THESE SOLUTIONS PAN
OUT...THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE AN ALREADY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY OVER AREA WATERWAYS BOTH IN
ADVANCE AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE WARM AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE WATER
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOW A LITTLE COOLER WILL LEAD TO STABLE
CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE MARINE
FORECAST. HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WERE LARGELY MADE
ON THOSE ZONES THAT WILL SEE A LONGER FETCH...SUCH AS THE OPEN LAKE
ZONES OF SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A
GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE. THAT DECISION WAS BASED ON OFFSHORE FLOW FROM OHIO SHOULD BE
STRONGER DUE TO HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS...SOLIDLY REACHING 35 KNOTS.
FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES NOT MENTIONED...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25-30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDSPEEDS SHOULD GET CLOSE ACROSS
SAGINAW BAY..BUT BEHAVIOR OF OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS A
STABLE REGIME IS ALREADY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1210 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2011

//DISCUSSION...

THE WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MN
ARROWHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEFORE
SUNRISE AND THEN STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE, IN THE NEAR TERM,
SIMILAR TIMING ON THE LOWERING OF CEILING AT ALL AVIATION SITES
AROUND SE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING. RETURNS IN RADAR
IMAGERY WILL REPRESENT VIRGA AND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THAT WILL LEAD TO THE LOWER CLOUD COVER. THE GOOD NEWS
IS OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT MODEL SUGGESTIONS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA. THAT WILL OCCUR AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A PATTERN OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY MID SUNDAY EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET DEVELOPING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
     MONDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     GALE WARNING...FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM SUNDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
433 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-130800-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
433 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH ON SUNDAY. GUSTS
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS AFTER ABOUT 4 PM WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY HELP TO
BRING A FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
STRONGEST WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF I-69 LATE
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-130800-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
433 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE HURON FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
MARINE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KEC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).