Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Warnings in 2011
Gale Warning 53, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this gale warning at Oct 16, 2011, 4:08 AM EDT. It was in force for 40 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 16, 2011, 4:08 AM EDT (08:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 17, 2011, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 40 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
229 WHUS73 KDTX 160808 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 408 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS... .A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY IS NOW DOWN TO ABOUT 965MB THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS...KEEPING A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WOBBLE IS FORECASTED TO TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A COMPACT GRADIENT REFLECTION WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE BULLISH IN TERMS OF WINDSPEEDS THAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT ADDITIONAL GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS LAKE HURON. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH. LHZ361>363-162015- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-111016T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0053.111016T0808Z-111017T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 408 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ442-443-160915- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111016T0800Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 408 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. $$ LHZ421-422-441-162015- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111017T2000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 408 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
4 follow-up statements
635 WHUS73 KDTX 161957 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 357 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY... .THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENTION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO WESTERN LAKE ERIE. WILL RUN THE CURRENT HEADLINES OUT THROUGH MONDAY AND ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS FOR MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES CONSIDERABLY. LHZ361>363-170800- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0100Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 357 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY... THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-170800- /O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.111017T1400Z-111018T0100Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 357 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-170800- /O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.111017T1400Z-111018T0100Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 357 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ444-170800- /O.EXB.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.111017T1400Z-111018T0100Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 357 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ421-422-441-170800- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0100Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 357 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT MONDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 6 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 8 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ KURIMSKI
344 WHUS73 KDTX 170813 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS HOLDING ON OVER THE REGION TODAY... .A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON DOWN TO SAGINAW BAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT OVER ALL REMAINING MARINE AREAS. THIS LOW WILL FINALLY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO GET NUDGED EASTWARD BY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN A NEW ROUND OF ROUGH MARINE WEATHER IN THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE IT EXITS THE REGION BY FRIDAY. LHZ421-422-441-172015- /O.UPG.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0100Z/ /O.EXB.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ462-172015- /O.EXB.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ361-362-172015- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0400Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ363-172015- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-172015- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.111017T0813Z-111018T0000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 6 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-172015- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.111017T1200Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ444-172015- /O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.111017T1200Z-111018T0000Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 413 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 6 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ BT
929 WHUS73 KDTX 172013 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 413 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...ROUGH CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY... .STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO HAS CREATED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT 8 PM WHEN THEY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM AS MOST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW GUSTS DOWN CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY LAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE LULL IN THE WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR LAKE HURON BUT WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINE EXPIRE BEFORE ISSUING ANY NEW WATCHES. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE MAY EVEN BE CLOSE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. LHZ361-362-180000- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 413 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ363-421-422-441-462-180000- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 413 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-180000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 413 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-180000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 413 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ444-180000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 413 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT MONDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT MONDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
765 WHUS73 KDTX 172356 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 756 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...BRIEF BREAK FROM WINDS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... .WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS VERY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE AREA. LHZ361-362-180100- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 756 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. $$ LHZ363-421-422-441-462-180100- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 756 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. $$ LHZ442-443-180100- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 756 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. $$ LCZ460-180100- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- 756 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. $$ LEZ444-180100- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-111018T0000Z/ MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 756 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. $$ DG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 16, 3:48 AM EDT, 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 16, 3:48 AM EDT, 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011
.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING AND TODAY
VIRGA ECHOES...SUPPORTED BY LEAD CVA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...HAVE BEEN CASTING A VEIL ON LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. RESIDUAL DRY
AIR SUB 8 KFT WILL LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE DTX CWA
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE FORECAST WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF M 59
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A WAVE OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME. DESPITE A VERY
WELL PUT TOGETHER UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM THAT IS POISED TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...THE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE SHOULD BE MUDDIED BY LESS THAN A PRIME PLACEMENT UNDER
RIGHT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS ALOFT. MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INSTEAD COME FROM A SHORT BURST OF 295K AND 305K ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS IT WILL BE FRACTURED VERSUS A
DEEP COLUMN RESPONSE. SATURATION WILL BECOME ADEQUATE ABOVE
800MB...BUT THE DRY WEDGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO
HOLD GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TANGIBLE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THUS...THE AREA IS LOOKING AT A HIGHER POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO SOUTH OF
I 69 BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12-18Z. QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FALL IN THE .01 TO 0.05 INCH RANGE. BRIEF SHOT OF WAA...MIXED
CONDITIONS AND A RETURN OF AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM... TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE ENSURED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BY CONFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE
SOUTH FLANK OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD WHILE FILLING WITH
TIME, BUT IT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN GRADIENT WIND IN
THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER SE MICHIGAN, GOOD ENOUGH TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S DESPITE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. MOSTLY NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL ALSO
HELP HOLD THE LINE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
MONDAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AGAIN AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
GETS UNDERWAY.
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF
A NEW ROUND OF LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME NOTICEABLE
ADJUSTMENTS, HOWEVER, ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES. THE MAIN TREND IS TOWARD A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS THEN SHOWN
TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY BEFORE PHASING WITH
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT ONTARIO UPPER LOW. THIS EVOLUTION RESULTS IN
A DELAY OF RAIN PROSPECTS IN SE MICHIGAN UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. SOLID CHANCE POPS ARE THEN WARRANTED FOR
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST FLANK DEFORMATION OF THE LEAD WAVE.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SUBSTANTIAL EAST COAST SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS, WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WORST DAY OF THE WEEK IN OUR
AREA AS THE EAST COAST SYSTEM OPENS THE DOOR ON STRONG NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. COMBINE THE LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WITH A BROAD AREA OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM INTO SE MICHIGAN AND WE WILL BE FORTUNATE TO SEE MAX
TEMPS REACH THE 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS SURPRISINGLY PROGRESSIVE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE FULL LATITUDE LONG WAVE
TROUGH/LOW IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONE
WOULD EXPECT A SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THURSDAY. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE PERHAPS DUE TO
THE UPPER JET INCREASING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND FORCING A TREND
TOWARD ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT THIS SOLUTION WILL VERIFY IS BASED ON LITTLE
OR NO SLOWER TREND IN THE PATTERN SHIFT BY FRIDAY COMPARED TO
RECENT MODEL CYCLES. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA
WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY IS NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
965MB THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS...KEEPING A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NORTHERN
LAKE HURON TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WOBBLE IS FORECASTED TO
TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A
COMPACT GRADIENT REFLECTION WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE BULLISH IN TERMS OF WINDSPEEDS THAT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT
ADDITIONAL GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS LAKE
HURON. OTHERWISE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SAGINAW
BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR
BEACH.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH CIGS
WILL LOWER FROM AOA 20KFT TO 5-6KFT BY 12Z-15Z AS BAND OF CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. YIP/DTW/DET
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND A POSSIBLE
SPRINKLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GUST TO 20+ KNOTS...PARTICULARLY PTK/FNT/MBS ON
SUNDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363...UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....BT
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 16, 4:03 AM EDT, 5 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 403 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170815- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 403 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LCZ423-460-LEZ444-170815- DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 403 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LCZ422-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-170815- ST. CLAIR RIVER- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 403 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON AND SAGINAW BAY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE GUSTY WEST WIND OVER THE REGION. COLD NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. THE LONG FETCH OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE WATER WILL LEAD TO ROUGH WATER CONDITIONS ON SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LHZ361>363-170815- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 403 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE GUSTY WEST WIND OVER THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
The office that day
Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 8:55 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | DTX | 47 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.