Gale Warning 38, NWS Detroit, MI

126 
WHUS73 KDTX 050929
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
429 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY 
AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE. HAVE DELAYED THE START
TIME OF THE GALE WARNING A FEW HOURS BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
STILL INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE
LAKE. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES.

LHZ362-363-052130-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0038.110305T1500Z-110306T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
429 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-052130-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0038.110305T1500Z-110306T0500Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
429 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

* WIND: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 
  26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST 
  SATURDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-462>464-052130-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0038.110305T2000Z-110306T1200Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
429 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

557 
WHUS73 KDTX 052011
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
311 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...MARGINAL NORTHERLY GALES OVER THE MIDDLE SECTION OF LAKE HURON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE HOVERING AROUND 30 
KNOTS. PLANNING ON CONVERTED MUCH OFF THE GALE WARNING TO BRISK WIND 
ADVISORY...AS ICE COVER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL HELP 
MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL STABILITY DECREASE FROM CONTINUED LOW LEVEL 
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. 

SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT 
WINDS TAKING HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES 
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT 
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

LHZ441>443-060930-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110306T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.BW.Y.0012.110305T2011Z-110306T1200Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
311 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  SATURDAY.

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

LHZ421-060930-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110306T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.BW.Y.0012.110305T2011Z-110306T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
311 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  SATURDAY.

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

LHZ463-464-052115-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110306T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
311 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LHZ422-052115-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110306T0500Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
311 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LHZ362-363-462-060500-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110306T0500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
311 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 37 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SF

282 
WHUS73 KDTX 060332
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1032 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...

.BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE HOVERING AROUND 30 
KNOTS. PLANNING ON CONVERTED MUCH OFF THE GALE WARNING TO BRISK WIND 
ADVISORY...AS ICE COVER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL HELP 
MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL STABILITY DECREASE FROM CONTINUED LOW LEVEL 
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT. 

SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT 
WINDS TAKING HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES 
CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT 
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

LHZ362-363-462-060445-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110306T0500Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1032 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LHZ441>443-061200-
/O.CON.KDTX.BW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-110306T1200Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
1032 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 21 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST 
  SATURDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

LHZ421-061200-
/O.CON.KDTX.BW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-110306T1200Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
1032 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 19 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KNOTS. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST 
  SATURDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1236 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND MBS
WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY DROPPING INTO IFR
CATEGORY OR LOWER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLIER
TRANSITION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 957 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

UPDATE...

RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 32F BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE MID 20S
SUPPORTING WET BULB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. ADDED WASHTENAW AND
WAYNE COUNTIES TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY GIVEN REPORTS ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE FACT THAT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I69. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SUPPORT
CONTINUING THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THAT AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 641 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

UPDATE...

AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN HAS LIFTED OVER THE M-59 CORRIDOR AND
FILLED IN QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR. WITH REPORTS OF NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS AND SLIPPERY ROADS WILL PULL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH TO THE M-59 CORRIDOR FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. FURTHER NORTH THIS AREA OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD LIFT OVER
THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. WITH A LATER ONSET OF THE FREEZING
RAIN DUE TO DRIER AIR...AREAS TO THE NORTH COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE FREEZING. SOME SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN...SO WILL ADD THIS TO THE MIX IN THE GRIDS...HOWEVER WITH THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING FREEZING RAIN WILL LEAVE THE
REASONING BEHIND THE ADVISORY AS FREEZING RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 424 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

SHORT TERM...TODAY

TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WARMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION COINCIDENT WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING.
WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 NEAR
THE OHIO BORDER...THE SAGINAW VALLEY REMAINS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES POSE A PROBLEM AS THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION HEADS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF WISCONSIN AND TOWARDS
MICHIGAN. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS RUN AS THE
NAM HOLDS ONTO THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA SEVERAL
HOURS LONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERE UP SEVERAL
HOURS QUICKER. THE NAM SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE DELAYED ONSET ALLOWS SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THE GFS WITH
QUICKER MOISTENING UP OF THE COLUMN BRINGS A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FAVOR THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE GFS WHICH TAKES THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NAM IS MORE OF A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...HENCE THE DELAYED ONSET OF  PRECIPITATION. THIS FURTHER
EAST TRAJECTORY WOULD BRING FREEZING RAIN TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY THIS
MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RECENT MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AS THE MET HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE
NUMBERS. THE COOLER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SAGINAW
VALLEY TODAY GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WISCONSIN HEADING TOWARDS THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION FALLS GIVEN THE SPOTTY UPSTREAM REFLECTIVITY
RETURNS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE SHORTER
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE HEADLINES OUTSIDE THE
SAGINAW VALLEY...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF ANY EXPANSION OF
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

A SIZABLE GAP IS NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER AIR DATA FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH MISSING OBS AT
KVBG/KEDW/K1Y7/KDRA/KFGZ AND POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CONTINUING EASTWARD INTO COLORADO (15+ KNOTS TOO LOW WHEN
COMPARED TO THE OB AT GRAND JUNCTION). ADDING TO THAT...ONLY 1 RAOB
CAME IN FROM MEXICO AND THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE WAVE APPROACHING
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE SHORTWAVE OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH WHEN COMPARED WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOCUSED TOWARDS LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RIDING NORTHEAST UP THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS DETROIT ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS
OVERHEAD. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND
ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
BETWEEN TOL/DTW BETWEEN 18-00Z ON SAT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...POSSIBLY PULLING
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BECOME STRONG ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A SWATCH OF ENHANCED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. 24
HOUR QPF FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SUGGESTS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MAY SEE OVER .75 INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL SWATH TO EXCEED 1.50 INCHES. WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF QPF STILL IN THE SNOWPACK AND FROZEN
GROUND...THIS DOES SUGGEST A THREAT OF FLOODING BY SATURDAY WITH
RISES ON MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE POOR
CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES AND CONCERNS WITH 00Z
DATA MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AND SEE IF
THE THREAT REMAINS ON THE 12Z RUNS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

FORTUNATELY THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARM LAYER OF AIR
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ROUGHLY 800MB TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SAGINAW VALLEY STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WITH A WINTRY MIX/WET SNOW WORKING ITS WAY BACK SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.
GOOD PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD MAKE IT HARD FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO
DROP OFF FASTER THAN THE COLUMN ALOFT...SUGGESTING ANY PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE BRIEF BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WET SNOW. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION WITH ONLY A MINIMAL THREAT OF ICING...BUT WE WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING IF THE ICING/MIXED
PRECIP THREAT INCREASES OR LASTS FOR A LONGER DURATION.

OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN INTO SATURDAY
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WARM AIR SURGING UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE HURON WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING LATE SATURDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE WIND/WAVE FORECAST ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE
HURON. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH FOR NOW HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES AND
THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF. WILL TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND BRISK WIND ADVISORIES/GALE
HEADLINES MAY STILL BE ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY.

HYDROLOGY...

MODELS ARE BRINGING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS DETROIT BY SATURDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS
SUGGEST A LARGE AREA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST .75 INCH QPF WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL SWATCH TO EXCEED 1.50 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A MELTING SNOWPACK(CONTAINING
AROUND AN INCH OF WATER)...WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RISES
ON AREA RIVERS BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
SOME OF THE SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS. LINGERING SNOWPACK MAY BE
BLOCKING SOME DRAINAGE SYSTEMS...ONLY COMPOUNDING THE PROBLEM. IF
RAINFALL STAYS BELOW AN INCH THEN FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE ON
THE MINOR SIDE...BUT HIGHER BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
MORE WIDESPREAD ISSUES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE AFTER SEEING THE TRENDS OF THE 12Z
MODELS AND LATEST RIVER FORECASTS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-
     MIZ055...UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363...FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.

     GALE WATCH...SAGINAW BAY...FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-LHZ464...FROM 3 PM
     SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....AGD
UPDATE.......AGD
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....KEC
MARINE.......KEC
HYDROLOGY....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1121 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

MIZ047>049-053>055-051100-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
1121 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IS IN EFFECT TO 4
PM. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
LATE TONIGHT AND RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING
RAIN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-051100-
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
1121 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-69.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. RAIN MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF NEW RAINFALL AND MELTING
SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER OR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE THUMB...TAPERING DOWN TO
A HALF INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR.

RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WATER FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT
CHANNELS INTO THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-051100-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
1121 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. REFER TO LATEST MARINE FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).