Gale Warning 26, NWS Detroit, MI

942 
WHUS73 KDTX 011243
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
743 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...GALES AND COLD AIR RETURN...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES 
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  AS COLD AIR FLOODS IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONT...WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.  
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS 
THE PLURALITY OF LAKE HURON...NAMELY NORTH OF HARBOR BEACH. FREEZING 
SPRAY WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
PLUNGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

LHZ361-362-012200-
/O.CAN.KDTX.MF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110101T1500Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.110101T1800Z-110102T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
743 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 42 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST 
  SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-441-462-012200-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.110101T1800Z-110102T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
743 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 8 PM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-442-012200-
/O.NEW.KDTX.BW.Y.0001.110101T1800Z-110102T1200Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
743 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
  KNOTS.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EST SATURDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

399 
WHUS73 KDTX 012027
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...GALES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...

.AS COLD AIR FLOODS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
AS HIGH AS 40 KNOT GALES ACROSS THE PLURALITY OF LAKE HURON...NAMELY
NORTH OF HARBOR BEACH. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN
TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. HOWEVER...THE AIR IS NOT
QUITE COLD ENOUGH WHILE THE WINDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. STILL ENOUGH
OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND THIS
HIGH TO HAVE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE ON SUNDAY.

LHZ422-020930-
/O.UPG.KDTX.BW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
327 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 39 KNOTS. INNER
  SAGINAW BAY IN ICE COVERED.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM EST
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-421-441-462-020930-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
327 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 43 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 11 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 16 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM EST 
  SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST 
  SATURDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ443-020930-
/O.EXA.KDTX.BW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
327 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 33
  KNOTS. THE AREA IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SATURDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

LHZ442-020930-
/O.CON.KDTX.BW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
327 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 33
  KNOTS. THE AREA IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST SATURDAY.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

913 
WHUS73 KDTX 020858
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
CENTRAL LAKE HURON...

.WIND GUSTS OVER LAKE HURON HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE...AND THE 
GALE WARNING FOR LAKE HURON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON WILL REMAIN 
TIGHT TODAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
HUDSON BAY AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30
KNOTS NORTH OF HARBOR BEACH. A BRISK WIND ADVISORY IS THEREFORE IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND FOR THE LAKE
HURON NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MONDAY BEFORE WINDS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

LHZ421-441-022130-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.BW.Y.0002.110102T0858Z-110103T0300Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
358 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE BRISK WIND ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EST SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST SUNDAY. 

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BRISK WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN AREAS THAT ARE PRIMARILY ICE COVERED. MOVING
ICE FLOES COULD DAMAGE SMALL CRAFT.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-422-462-021000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
358 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LHZ442-443-021000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.BW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110102T1200Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
358 AM EST SUN JAN 2 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
BRISK WIND ADVISORY. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

.AVIATION...

A SHORT PERIOD OF MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ESTABLISHED THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SURGES OVER SE
MICHIGAN. A FEW SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
WIND SHEAR MENTION STILL REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONGER WINDS JUST
OFF THE DECK. EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL THE NEXT
SURGE OF RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE
LOWER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TO START THE NEW
YEAR. THIS LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT
TO BRING SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, HEAVY ENOUGH FOR IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTION. WITH
THIS PATTERN LARGELY UNDEVELOPED AT PRESS TIME, CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WITH
UPDATES INTENDED TO REFINE TIMING AS COVERAGE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TIMED BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z SATURDAY WHICH
WILL TAKE SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT AND SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING MUCH OF
NEW YEARS DAY WILL BE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE HAS BEEN STRIPPED AT THE
MIDLEVELS WHICH IS PROVIDING A TIME WINDOW OF RELATIVELY QUIESCENT
WEATHER. THERE WILL REMAIN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SATURATION TO
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT SURGE IN 925-850MB THETA E WILL ARRIVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BEGINNING AT/AROUND 3Z. THE LEAD EDGE OF THE SURGE IS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT EXTENSION OF THE IOWA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTION NOW ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAD BEEN
ANCHORED ON THIS FEATURE...BUT RECENTLY HAS OUTPACED IT. MIDLEVEL
SATURATION WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE BUT LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN
BEHIND THIS FEATURE. FOR THIS REASON...STARTED THE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING FOR TONIGHT AFTER 3Z. DESPITE THE ORGANIZED MOISTURE
ADVECTION EARLY...MODELED PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST THAT THE RICHEST
MOISTURE QUALITY WILL STRING OUT WITH TIME IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION. THUS...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TONIGHT WILL BE DURING THE
8-12Z TIMEFRAME. A COLD GROUND AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE SHARP INVERSION (900MB TEMPS OF 11C) IN PLACE...THUS
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT
ARE TO RANGE BETWEEN .2 AND .3 INCHES.

GEM AND GFS SUPPORT A DOUBLE THERMAL GRADIENT STRUCTURE WITH REGARDS
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME ORGANIZATION ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BELIEF IS IN THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE AND MUTED TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE AHEAD OF 12Z.  KEPT THE GENERAL THEME OF THE INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH KEEPS TEMPERATURES STEADY TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES...BUT DROPPING BETWEEN 9-12Z.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND DEEP AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...EFFECTIVELY BRINGING AN END TO
THE RAINFALL FROM WEST TO EAST.  THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ENSURE HIGHS ARRIVE AROUND 12Z /RANGING FROM LOW 40S WEST TO
UPPER 40S EAST/...BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY AND THEN SLOWLY
FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS.  THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL ENHANCE THE
LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH CONVECTIVE DEPTHS
GROWING TO 6K FT.  GIVEN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE DEPTH...THIS SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT.

COOLEST DAYTIME READINGS OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH EASES THROUGH.  A WELL-MIXED WESTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH 850 MB
SUGGESTS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RECOVERY THOUGH...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 20S.  LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
WORKING OFF THE PERSISTENT LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE FLUX/STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
THROUGH THE DAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL INTO MONDAY AS THE BASE OF
THE MEAN CENTRAL CANADIAN TROUGH PULLS BACK NORTHWARD.  PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUSTAINED BY A GRADUALLY BACKING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY.  ELSEWHERE...
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE USUAL ISSUE AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WORK TO SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SUB-INVERSION
MOIST LAYER.  HIGHS WILL RESPOND SLIGHTLY WITH READINGS NUDGING
UPWARD A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THOSE ON SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONSOLIDATE WHILE DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODELS DISPLAYING THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SPECIFIC
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SMALLER SCALE FEATURE...BUT ALL AGREE THE
SYSTEM WILL CARRY A BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONGER DYNAMICS AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE 12Z GFS/CANADIAN
HOLD A STRONGER WAVE TO OUR NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A
BROADER SOLUTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED AXIS OF LIGHT QPF DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.  REGARDLESS...LOW POPS REMAIN WARRANTED
AREAWIDE FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD GIVEN THE HEIGHT FALLS...
STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A REESTABLISHED MOISTURE
FLUX WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
QUASI-ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...CONTAINING EMBEDDED AND POORLY
RESOLVED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES.  THIS PATTERN WILL CARRY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS ONE OR MORE
WAVES SLIDE THROUGH...BUT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PROPERLY DEFINE AT
THIS TIME SCALE.  TEMPERATURES WILL LACK LARGER DAY TO DAY
VARIATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING AROUND EARLY
JANUARY NORMS.

MARINE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WIND GUSTS THAT WILL REACH GALE FORCE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLDEST AIR TAKING AIM FOR NORTHERN LAKE
HURON AND THE PROJECTED WIND SPEEDS...UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OPEN WATERS NORTH OF ALABASTER. FOR OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE
WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME WINDOW AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ462...FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO
     4 AM SUNDAY.

     GALE WATCH...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT
     AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......CB

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-012045-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
340 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ422-442-443-463-464-012045-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
340 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BRISK WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LHZ361>363-012045-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
340 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS OR MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LHZ421-441-462-012045-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
340 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS OR MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).