Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Des Moines, IA

315 
WWUS53 KDMX 262210
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
510 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAC039-121-175-262230-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-110626T2230Z/
UNION IA-MADISON IA-CLARKE IA-
510 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CLARKE...SOUTHERN MADISON AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES
EAST OF CRESTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LORIMOR...THAYER...MURRAY...EAST PERU AND TRURO.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS 
STORM SINCE 445 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 9435 4109 9439 4116 9424 4123 9424
      4124 9380 4090 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 277DEG 18KT 4105 9412
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

JUNGBLUTH

113 
WWUS53 KDMX 262232
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
532 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAC039-121-175-262241-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-110626T2230Z/
UNION IA-MADISON IA-CLARKE IA-
532 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CLARKE...SOUTHERN
MADISON AND UNION COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS. HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURING IN 
CRESTON AND THE SURROUNDING AREA. 

IN ADDITION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 4098 9435 4109 9439 4116 9424 4123 9424
      4124 9380 4090 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 277DEG 18KT 4105 9411

$$

JUNGBLUTH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ACTIVE NIGHT IN STORE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IA AS SHORTWAVE PASSES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE PLAINS.  WILL SEE STRONG WAA/THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS 850MB FLOW INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.  INITIAL THOUGHT IS THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND WILL BE FED BY THE STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION.  THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  CONCERN OF BOTH SEVERE AND
HYDRO POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND WILL DISCUSS THE HYDRO
SITUATION BELOW.  AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...HAIL AND WIND REMAIN THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
LIMITED TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER.  MAIN
CONCERN FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY WHICH
WAS NON-EXISTENT ON THE 18Z KOAX.  MAY HAVE ENOUGH TIME IN THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE WARM FRONT TO APPROACH AND LEAD TO SOME SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION...BUT TIME WILL BE SHORT AND LIKELY LIMITED TO THE
EVENING HOURS.  OTHERWISE...PROGRESSIVE MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
NOW IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IA.  SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH IS ALSO EXPECTED BUT LIKELY NOT AS INTENSE DUE TO LOWER
INSTABILITY.  SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFTER THIS
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT LOCATION AND TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE DUE TO THE INITIAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES IN THE DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MATURE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE
QUICK TO MOVE OUT AS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL DRY OUT
THE MID LEVELS...AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO MIX OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY
MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGH SUN
ANGLE...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION FOG IN THE GRIDS AS A SOLE
RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER A PICTURE PERFECT DAY ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...H850 TEMPS WILL WARM FROM 20C 00Z
THURSDAY....TO UPPER 20S BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WARM LAYER WILL
SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION DESPITE SBCAPES RANGING FROM 4000-5000J/KG.
THURS/FRI AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS OPPRESSIVE AIRMASS MAY
RESULT EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED AS EVENT NEARS. THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SWING A DYING COLD FRONT
THOUGH THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA. LEE SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TRY TO BRING
THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SO HAVE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE THETA_E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
WILL SEE INCREASING WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARD SOUTHERN IOWA.  ANTICIPATE
SOME THINNING OF MVFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA.  ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN
CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY
MORNING.  ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AS WELL WITH THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA.  MANY OF THE RESTRICTION WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE.  SFC WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH VARIABLE AND STRONG
GUSTS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WILL SEE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AS SYSTEM
PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. INSTABILITY GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING NEAR THIS AREA.  GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ALONG WITH ANTICIPATED HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND AMOUNTS...HAVE GONE WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 2
INCHES AND MANY AREAS CLOSE TO AN INCH. CERTAINLY WONT TAKE MUCH
PRECIPITATION FOR RENEWED HYDRO ISSUES INCLUDING RIVER FLOODING AS
WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...COGIL
LONG TERM...BEITLICH
AVIATION...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
421 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAZ044>048-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-271100-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-
UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
421 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 70 MPH...PING PONG SIZED HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

IAZ004-005-015-024-035-036-271100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-HUMBOLDT-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
421 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 65 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DES
MOINES RIVER BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

IAZ006-007-016-017-023-025>028-033-034-037>039-049-050-271100-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-
BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL-TAMA-
421 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 65 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

CC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAZ070-071-081-262100-
ADAIR-ADAMS-CASS-
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CUMBERLAND...         MASSENA...            BRIDGEWATER...
  FONTANELLE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

JUNGBLUTH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
404 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

IAZ070>072-081-082-262130-
ADAIR-ADAMS-CASS-MADISON-UNION-
404 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 358 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MACKSBURG...          WINTERSET...          EAST PERU...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. SOILS ARE
SATURATED...SO BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER AND FILLING DITCHES.

JUNGBLUTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
441 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW CRESTON AIRPORT   41.07N 94.38W
06/26/2011  E55 MPH          UNION              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREES BENDING...HORIZONTAL RAIN...STRONG WINDS

&&

REV