Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
707 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.  STORMS THAT WERE INITIALLY ONGOING
THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND HAVE INTENSIFIED AS THEY ENCOUNTERED THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  THE QUANDARY HERE
IS THAT THE CORFIDI VECTORS TAKE THE STORMS SOUTH INTO OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...GROUND TRUTH BASED ON RADAR HAS THE STORMS MOVING
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MN...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 850-300MB MEAN
UPPER FLOW.  IF THIS WERE TO REMAIN THEN THE STRONG STORMS TO THE
NORTH WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH...BUT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INTO ILLINOIS.  NEXT CONCERN...THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER IN MN DROPPING ACROSS THE WEST EXTENDING
BACK INTO OMAHA/S AREA.  CURRENTLY THESE STORMS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING AND THEY ARE MOVING INTO A VERY RICH CAPE
ENVIRONMENT.  THE PROBLEM AS I SEE IT IS LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE
SHEAR SO SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS.  I WILL MENTION
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA THIS EVENING
BUT SEVERE THREAT...WHILE PRESENT IS MORE MARGINAL THIS POINT.
GIVEN THE CAPES HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO AND THE MEAN FLOW DOES TAKE THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHWEST IOWA.  AS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...I WOULD
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DRIBBLE OVER THE CWA IN WARM ADVECTION AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT WITH LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM WE MAY HAVE
OUR BEST SHOT AT STORMS THIS EVENING VERSUS OVERNIGHT.  LITTLE
CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT EVENT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO START THIS WEEKEND AND LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  THERE
COULD BE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN...OR NEAR...CENTRAL IOWA AT 12Z
SATURDAY LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION.  AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH ON SATURDAY IT SHOULD PUSH RING OF FIRE
NORTH WITH IT. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SHUTDOWN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY AFTERNOON.  ALL MODELS FORECAST UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
BY DAY 7.  AT THE SURFACE...MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOTICED THAT THE NEW 12Z ECMWF
PUSHES THE FRONT CLOSE TO IA BORDER ON THURSDAY.  DID NOT INTRODUCE
POPS WITH THIS...BUT IT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE ONGOING HEAT.  850
MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 22C-26C SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  WITH
THE ABSENCE OF MCS ACTIVITY...EXPECT THE IMPACTS OF THE HEAT TO
SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE REACHED ALL THE TIME...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF
THIS EVENT IS THE BIASES FOR A LONG LASTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
AFTER EXTENSIVE COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH A LONG DURATION EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING STARTING EITHER
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/00Z
ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST IOWA LOOKS TO AFFECT MCW/ALO THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MAINLY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WRT TO CIGS/VIS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...MAY SEE LIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALO BUT TIMING AND TRACKING ARE QUESTIONABLE.  HAVE
HANDLE ALO WITH A TEMP GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS. STORMS OVER
KS/SOUTHERN NE LOOK TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN TO NORTHWEST
IOWA.  THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT FOD AND POSSIBLY MCW AGAIN. WENT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR TS ACTIVITY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWF
ORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH
-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARR
EN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-STORY-TAMA-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...BOKSA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W NORTHWOOD           43.45N 93.31W
07/15/2011  M6.00 INCH       WORTH              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 6 INCHES SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SE GRAFTON              43.33N 93.06W
07/15/2011  M4.32 INCH       WORTH              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE RAIN BEGAN...AROUND 430PM.

0653 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SE GRAFTON              43.33N 93.06W
07/15/2011                   WORTH              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A HANDFUL OF AREAS WHERE A FOOT OF WATER IS FLOWING OVER
            ROADS THROUGHOUT THE TOWN OF GRAFTON

&&

PODRAZIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
752 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

IAZ028-039-160145-
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
752 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...

AT 749 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WATERLOO...           ORAN...               DUNKERTON...
  RAYMOND...            EVANSDALE...          ELK RUN HEIGHTS...
  GILBERTVILLE...       JESUP GOLF COURSE...  LA PORTE CITY...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. MORE IMPORTANTLY...RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR STREET
FLOODING. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING...AND TURN AROUND IF YOU
ENCOUNTER WATER COVERING THE ROADWAYS.

BEITLICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTHWOOD               43.44N 93.22W
07/15/2011  E4.50 INCH       WORTH              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM KWWL

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
813 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SE GRAFTON              43.33N 93.06W
07/15/2011  M5.28 INCH       WORTH              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE RAIN BEGAN AROUND 430PM. ADDITIONAL
            0.96 INCHES SINCE 653 PM. UPDATED TOTAL.

&&

PODRAZIK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>