Small Craft Advisory 61, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TURN TO LOW END
MVFR/IFR AS AN AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE
W/NW. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BAND OF F-GEN WILL TRY TO
GENERATE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
INHIBIT THE ABILITY OF THE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. BEST CHANCE
OR SHSN WILL BE FROM INL TO HIB TO DLH THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WILL BEGIN
TO HINT AT THE START OF THE SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE 18Z...WITH THE
BULK OF THE POSSIBLY HVY SNOW OCCURRING SOMETIME BTWN 18-00Z. WINDS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NE LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2011/

UPDATE...FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MID LVL MOISTURE IS SWEEPING INTO REGION. ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO
FIT CURRENT WIND FIELDS/LATEST NAM12 FCST. INCREASED SKY GRIDS TO
PUSH CLOUDY VS PSUNNY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTH AND INCREASED
IN SE WISC ZONES IN ACCORDANCE WITH CLOUDS/LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE DOWNWARD FROM MID DECK TODAY SO POPS
SEEM REASONABLE TO KEEP IN AFTN FCST. THERMAL PROFILES ON NAM BUFR
SUGGEST ANY RAIN QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH COLUMN COOLING
IN LOW LEVELS. MAY HAVE SOME RAIN ALONG IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT NEAR
TWIN PORTS. MOVED RAIN/SNOW LINE FARTHER SOUTH WITH RESPECT TO
MORNING SNDGS/THERMAL FCST FROM NAM/EC. MORNING GUIDANCE FROM
AMERICAN NWP TRENDING TOWARDS FASTER/FLATTER EVOLUTION OF SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN LESS SNOW FOR
MOST OF MN PART OF CWA. A FAST MOVING BAND OF MDT/STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LWR STC CROIX VALLEY/NW WISC
ZONES SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ASSESS GEM/EC TREND THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE COMMITTING TO SPECIFICS OF SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW/TOMORROW
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2011/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA TODAY...INTO ONTARIO
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CEILINGS WAS
MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING. CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHORT TERM IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...AS MODELS WERE INDICATING
LOWER CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE IRON
RANGE/ARROWHEAD DOWN TOWARD THE KDLH AREA. WE DID LOWER CEILINGS
LATER TODAY...AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
KDLH/KHIB. WE DELAYED THE WESTERLY WINDS...AS THE NAM SHOWS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING LONGER...AND THAT SEEMED REASONABLE.

TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST...AND SOME MVFR
CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2011/

SHORT TERM...LATEST KDLH RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS...SHOWS LIGHT FALLING ACROSS OUR EXTREME NRN ZONES
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM INTL FALLS EWD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY STRONG WAA AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT TRACKING EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER. FARTHER
SOUTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER-LEVELS HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MAINLY
DRY. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES THIS
MORNING...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES AND WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A STRONGER WAVE
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND TRACKING EWD ACROSS
THE FCST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WRT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE
CATEGORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND QPF AMOUNTS LOW. BUT IF THE 06Z GFS
AND NAM TURN OUT TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION...THERE COULD BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM THEN SHIFTS TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS WRT THE TRACK OF THE LOW...A CONSENSUS
TAKES IT FROM NRN KS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO SWRN WI EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING TO SERN ONTARIO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WOULD
PUT A SWATH OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. THE NAM AND ECMWF TAKE THE SNOW FARTHEST NORTH UP TO THE IRON
RANGE...WHILE THE GEM AND GFS HAVE THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW FURTHER
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WI ZONES. HOWEVER IN EITHER
SITUATION...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW...TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES...WHILE WITHIN IN THE WATCH AREA 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS ACROSS PRICE AND SRN SAWYER COUNTIES COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN SOME RAIN INITIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
THE PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR OUR ENTIRE
FCST AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS
WILL TURN OUT OF A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND DRAW COLDER AIR
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A
SHORTWAVE FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF AFFECTING THE CWA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. FLOW WILL
AMPLIFY TOWARD MID-WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST...THAN MOVES
MOVES OVER THE NORTHLAND BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN.

WE ADDED SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO A PORTION OF THE SNOWBELT
REGION OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...AS IT TAKES SOME
TIME FOR THE FLOW TO BACK AND THE DRIER TO MOVE IN.

WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE THEN KEPT THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY IS WEAKER
THAN THE FIRST ONE...BUT IT'S POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED SOME LOW POPS BUT
WILL WAIT TO ADD. THESE WAVES ARE TOUGH TO TIME WITH SUCH FAST FLOW.

HIGHS SHOULD WARM FROM THE TWENTIES ON SUNDAY...TO THE 40 TO 45 BY
THANKSGIVING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  23  27  12 /  20  20  80  60
INL  29  17  21   7 /  20  20  20  20
BRD  36  23  27  10 /  20  20  80  50
HYR  40  25  33  16 /  20  10  80  70
ASX  39  28  33  20 /  20  20  80  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...TENTINGER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
242 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

MNZ012-019>021-026-035>038-WIZ001-182245-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-
DOUGLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISABELLA...HIBBING...TWO HARBORS...
GRAND MARAIS...GRAND RAPIDS...HILL CITY...AITKIN...DULUTH...
CLOQUET...HINCKLEY...SUPERIOR
242 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

...SHORT BURST OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...

A FAST-MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NORTH OF
A LINE FROM DAIRYLAND TO ASHLAND DURING THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN AREAS
FROM FLOODWOOD AND HIBBING...EASTWARD TO THE TWIN PORTS...TWO
HARBORS AND SILVER BAY AREAS. VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE LIMITED TO
AROUND A HALF MILE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF DULUTH.

SOME ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK...ESPECIALLY SIDE
STREETS AND OTHER UNTREATED ROADWAYS. BRIDGES... OVERPASSES AND
RAMPS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME SLIPPERY.

 MILLER