Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND GUST 15-20KT BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LLWS WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN TONIGHT AS A VERY
STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS...WITH SOUTH WINDS 40-50KT AROUND 1500-2000FT
AGL FROM 06Z TO 12Z. SFC WINDS TOMORROW MORNING INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND MIX DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

UPDATE...
AREA WEB CAMS AND WEATHER STATIONS SHOW THE FOG IS LIFTING ACROSS
THE TWIN PORTS REGION. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY OF
LESS THAN A MILE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE SAINT
LOUIS RIVER VALLEY.

INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AS MORNING READINGS
ARE QUICKLY RISING AND MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TO COOL FOR PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN DEEPER
MIXING...ALLOWING FOR LOWER DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
TO REACH THE SURFACE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DECREASED MINIMUM
RH VALUES TO GENERALLY AROUND 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL REMAIN COOLER WITH MORE
HUMIDITY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIXING ABILITY AND WIND STRENGTHS
OVER THE ARROWHEAD REGION...INCLUDING THE PAGAMI WILDFIRE AREA...THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
TO ASSESS IF THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO
THIS ZONE.

MORNING MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL
DETERMINE IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME LOCALIZED FOG AROUND KDLH/KCOQ. THE FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z.
FROM KINL THROUGH KBRD WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND BECOME
GUSTY BY 17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY....AND A THROUGH OVER
THE MOUNTAIN WEST. IN BETWEEN THE TWO RESIDES A FAIRLY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT AND OVER
THE CONTROL CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK EWD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCTD/ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR
WRN ZONES ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S...WITH
READINGS ACROSS OUR WRN AND SRN ZONES POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER
80S. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NORTHSHORE AND TWIN PORTS REGIONS. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS BLOCKING HIGH LOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST STRONG
LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING INTO WEST COAST SLOWLY TRANSLATES EWRD.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING UPPER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS FRIDAY AND INTO MANITOBA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...PIECES OF
S/WV ENERGY WILL BE ROTATED AROUND THIS LOW AND BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH NWRN WI SATURDAY MORNING. A
STRONG 8H JET ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT FGEN AND INSTABILITY
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.

ONCE THIS NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE SRN STREAM
SPIN UP ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER BY
SUNDAY TIMING IS IN QUESTION WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING UPPER TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
ECMWF MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE. WOULD LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF DUE TO
STRENGTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE...BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS AS
UNCERTAINTY PAST DAY 3. THIS UPPER TROF WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. LLWS EXPECTED FROM 06Z TO 15Z AT BRD
AND INL AS LLJ TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT DLH FROM 06Z TO 11Z WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  76  60  69 /  10  20  30  30
INL  59  76  58  65 /  10  20  30  10
BRD  61  77  60  70 /  10  20  30  20
HYR  57  79  62  73 /   0  10  20  40
ASX  57  80  62  73 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-011-018-
     019-025-026-033>038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ037-
     038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>036.

WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...TENTINGER

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