Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
245 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS NOW OVER THE TIP OF BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND
ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH...THROUGH THE HAYWARD AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE LEAVING THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD AND MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EARLIER VERY
HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO.
VERY RAPID COOLING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...HAS
BROUGHT THE FREEZING LEVEL DOWN TO ABOUT 6500 FEET OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THIS RAPID MID-LEVEL COOLING HAS ALLOWED LIGHT
SHOWERS TO FORM...ALL THE WAY BACK TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
COLD COLUMN HAS GREATLY LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER THUNDER
OR SUBSTANTIAL RAIN. IN LIGHT OF THE COOLING...WE LEFT SHOWERS IN
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND PUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EAST
OF THE IRON RANGE LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE ONSET OF AN UPPER RIDGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH-LEVEL WARMING...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RETURN
FLOW BEHING A SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING WARMING LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF A WARM MOIST AIR MASS...WE
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN
IMPORTANT WARMING TREND SHOULD BEGIN HERE THURSDAY.

.EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR
INTO THE 80S...WITH A FEW PLACES IN NW WI APPROACHING 90 ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY HUMID AS WELL FOR THIS REGION...AND
ALLOW TEMPS TO FEEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NRN TIER
COUNTIES ON FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIDES N OF THE
RIDGE AND ALLOWS FOR ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SAT AND
SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUN/EARLY
MON AND BRINGS WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...06/27/18Z ISSUANCE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SFC FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND AND PRODUCING MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORNING ROUND OF SHRA
AND TSRA IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND THERE
ARE A FEW STORM CELLS REGENERATING OVER NW WI. THESE WILL MAINTAIN
THEIR INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 00Z. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP FURTHER TO
THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IMPACT TERMINALS
IN THE AREA THROUGH 02-04Z. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FROM THE NNW ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10KTS
FROM THE NW THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE TONIGHT
WITH SKC EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS BY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  73  46  71 /  40   0   0  10
INL  47  72  41  80 /  40   0   0  10
BRD  51  75  50  81 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  54  76  43  82 /  20   0   0  10
ASX  52  72  43  78 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EOM
EXTENDED....TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
252 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-281030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
252 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-281030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
252 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

EOM

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
551 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HEAVY RAIN       15 N GRAND RAPIDS       47.45N 93.52W
06/27/2011  M3.15 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL RAINING LIGHTLY

&&

AGRANING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
602 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       11 N MARCELL            47.75N 93.69W
06/27/2011  M5.25 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL RAINING.

0552 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NE COOK               47.93N 92.57W
06/27/2011  M5.40 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RECEIVED 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 3.4 INCHES SINCE 600 AM.
            STILL RAINING.

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WIRT                    47.73N 93.96W
06/27/2011  M3.10 INCH       ITASCA             MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STILL RAINING

&&

AGRANING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
752 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ012-020-021-280215-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-SOUTHERN
LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
752 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...HEAVY RAIN OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...CONTAINING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION THROUGH 1000 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 1000 PM
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND
ONE INCH.

DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...THERE MAY BE
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES. THIS IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS. LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A WATER COVERED ROAD...DO NOT TRY TO DRIVE
ACROSS IT. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FOREST LAKE...
  SEA GULL LAKE...
  SAWBILL LANDING...
  ISABELLA...
  ALGER...
  LARSMONT...
  SILVER BAY...
  LITTLE MARAIS...
  GRAND MARAIS...

LAT...LON 4810 9074 4814 9058 4811 9054 4812 9020
      4777 9022 4770 9052 4755 9086 4728 9123
      4693 9178 4821 9179 4821 9177 4819 9169
      4813 9168 4810 9163 4811 9156 4806 9156
      4808 9128 4825 9090 4825 9083

GRANING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
847 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LITTLE MARAIS           47.41N 91.11W
06/27/2011  M0.80 INCH       LAKE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN JUST 15 MIN. STILL RAINING.

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SILVER BAY              47.29N 91.28W
06/27/2011  M0.70 INCH       LAKE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RECEIVED IN PAST 1.5 HOURS. STILL RAINING.

&&

GRANING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAND MARAIS            47.76N 90.34W
06/27/2011  M0.97 INCH       COOK               MN   AWOS

            RECORDED IN LESS THAN 45 MINUTES.

&&

HLUCHAN

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