Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Duluth, MN

July 1, 2011Saint Louis County, Minnesota; Douglas County, Wisconsin

NWS Duluth, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 1, 2011, 6:16 PM CDT for Saint Louis County, Minnesota; Douglas County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2011, 6:16 PM CDT (23:16 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2011, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Saint Louis County, MN, Douglas County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 1, 2:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 266 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3970 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -245 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1089 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 1, 2:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 2:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR CRANE LAKE SSWWD TO
AITKIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED WITH
TEMPS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 6000 J/KG AND HEAT INDICIES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 95 TO 105. EVEN WITH FAIRLY STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...A CAPPING INVERSION HAS INHIBITED
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING SO FAR TODAY. WE DO EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK EVENTUALLY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO SWODY1
ISSUED BY THE SPC. THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN THE AREA
OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EWD WITH THE FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL THE MODELS SHOW A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AND WARMTH ALOFT WILL MITIGATE
THE STRENGTH OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE FRONT. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH WILL DEPART TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ABOVE THE MANITOBA LAKES AND ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY BASIN...RESULTING
IN AN INCREASINGLY CHILLY ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.  MORE CHILLY
AIR FROM NORTHWEST CANADA WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY PATTERN AS
A COOL WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW...KEEPS MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TO SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY VFR
IN SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AROUND SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR
IN BROKEN CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  79  52  78 /  60  10  10  10
INL  58  77  47  78 /  30  10  10  10
BRD  59  81  54  81 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  63  83  52  82 /  70  10  10  10
ASX  60  81  52  79 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ038.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BERDES
EXTENDED....EOM
AVIATION...EOM

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 10:59 AM CDT, 7 hours 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-021030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S WILL BE LIKELY...WITH MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HEAT INDEX VALUES...FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS AND
PINE COUNTY EAST TO SOUTHERN IRON AND PRICE COUNTY...WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 95 TO 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE
STORMS LATER TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER
TODAY...AND STAY AWARE OF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS THAT MAY BE
ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-021030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1059 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

BERDES

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 4:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 55 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ012-012135-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
421 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS...

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF NORTH
LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
SO BE ALERT FOR ANY WARNINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROSIE LAKE...         CLEARWATER LAKE...

BOATERS AND CANOERS ON INLAND LAKES SHOULD MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4813 9055 4811 9054 4810 9035 4812 9032
      4811 9025 4812 9017 4810 9006 4787 9069
      4800 9083 4811 9067 4811 9064 4814 9058

LAMERS

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 4:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
437 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ012-012155-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
437 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR NORTHERN COOK
COUNTY...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSIE LAKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLEARWATER LAKE...    ROSIE LAKE...    DANIELS LAKE...

BOATERS AND CANOERS SHOULD MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY!

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4810 9020 4798 9051 4805 9063 4811 9057
      4811 9039 4810 9035 4812 9032 4811 9020

LAMERS

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:07 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
507 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ038-WIZ001>004-006>009-012345-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HINCKLEY...SUPERIOR...WASHBURN...
ASHLAND...HURLEY...GRANTSBURG...SPOONER...HAYWARD...PHILLIPS
507 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...BE ALERT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

AT 5 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED RAPID AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PINE
COUNTY MINNESOTA.

A PARTICULARLY SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS NEAR REDWOOD FALLS
MINNESOTA...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 60 MPH. THIS WOULD
BRING IT TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM. IF THE STORM
MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY...IT COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGE.

IF YOU ARE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. CAMPERS...
BOATERS... AND OTHERS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY WARY OF RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

YOU SHOULD HAVE A PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER...AND PLAN IN ADVANCE FOR
ANY ADVERSE WEATHER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAMERS

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:51 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
551 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ010-011-018-019-026-012330-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-KOOCHICHING-NORTH ITASCA-NORTH ST. LOUIS-SOUTH
ITASCA-
551 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER ITASCA...WESTERN SAINT LOUIS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BIGFORK TO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NASHWAUK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EFFIE BY 555 PM...
  CRAIGVILLE BY 600 PM...
  STONY BROOK AND SIDE LAKE BY 610 PM...
  TOGO AND SNAKE TRAIL BY 615 PM...
  CELINA BY 620 PM...
  MEADOW BROOK BY 625 PM...
  GREANEY AND LINDEN GROVE BY 630 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4826 9311 4785 9247 4734 9323 4776 9387

BERDES

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 6:09 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
609 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

MNZ037-WIZ001-020000-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
609 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING TWIN PORTS...

AT 605 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF OLIVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW DULUTH AND SOUTH RANGE BY 615 PM...
  SUPERIOR AND WEST DULUTH BY 625 PM...
  HERMANTOWN BY 630 PM...
  DULUTH BY 635 PM...
  ARNOLD BY 650 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4655 9229 4691 9226 4687 9194 4686 9194
      4678 9207 4673 9204 4669 9196 4670 9186
      4648 9205

BERDES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 6:25 AM CDT	Dense Fog Advisory	DLH	Carlton, Saint Louis	4 hr
Jul 1, 4:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	14 min
Jul 1, 4:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	18 min
Jul 1, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Pine	47 min
Jul 1, 5:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	39 min
Jul 1, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Pine	43 min
Jul 1, 6:18 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		57 min
Jul 1, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Carlton, Pine	52 min
Jul 1, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Aitkin, Pine	63 min
Jul 1, 6:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Pine	55 min
Jul 1, 6:54 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DLH	Aitkin, Carlton, Pine	4 hr
Jul 1, 6:55 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		95 min
Jul 1, 6:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Douglas	51 min
Jul 1, 6:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Bayfield, Douglas	36 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.