Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SAZ TO ELO TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VCNTY OF THE STORMS. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SPREAD SEWD THIS MORNING REACHING DLH/BRD
AREAS BY 15Z/16Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER INTENSE S/W TROF BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE TRANSLATING
STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED QUITE ROBUSTLY DURING THE PAST 3-4 HOURS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM WCENT MN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BOUNDARY WATERS..AND HAVE
LARGELY BEEN TRACKING OVER MANY OF THE SAME AREAS. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIP
RATES OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON..BUT
RADAR TRENDS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO EXISTS
UNDERNEATH ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM WALKER/BEMIDJI AREAS ENEWD TO
BIGFORK/COOK AND THE BOUNDARY WATERS. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF LONGER DURATION HEAVY PRECIP RATES REMAINS LESS THAN
WHAT WE/D LIKE TO SEE IT ONLY A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE AS WAVE
APPROACHES..SO WE HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A FAIRLY BROAD-BRUSHED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THRU 7 PM THIS EVENING ENCOMPASSING BOTH PRIMARY
THREAT AREAS DEFINED ABOVE.

WAVE WILL WRAP UP FURTHER OVER LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT..BUT SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND SHUD BRING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR 24-36 HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS RIDGE RESIDES OVERHEAD..WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COMMENCING IN RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS /700 MB READINGS APPROACHING +15C/ WILL
MAKE A PUSH TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES WED/WED NITE AIDED BY A
FAIRLY STRONG LLJ. THESE TEMPS SHUD BE WARM ENUF TO BUILD A STRONG
CAP OVER THE SW PART OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING IF CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS COME TO PASS. HOWEVER..WE HAVE OPTED FOR LOW POPS
WED/WED NITE GENERALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR..WHERE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY MODEST LOW LEVEL
FGEN AND A WEAKER CAP WHERE A FEW T-STORMS MAY FORM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL PUMP WARM/HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WARM TEMPS
UP TO H7 SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...A
FEW TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED NIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND WE HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR
THIS REASON OVER THE NE PART OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGING CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS IS THE ONLY LONG RANGE MODEL BRAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND WILL BE IGNORED. THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED E ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROF TO CROSS THE
FA. DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN SPEED/TIMING AND HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT THEY DO AGREE THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE ARRANGED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
UNCHANGED DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT...
REACHING THE WISCONSIN AREAS MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCT SHRA/TSTMS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
AFT 18Z MON.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  52  70  54 /  80  20  10  10
INL  72  49  74  54 /  70  20  10  10
BRD  74  54  75  57 /  70  10  10  10
HYR  72  54  75  53 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  67  52  73  52 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-
     025-026-035-037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
450 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-281100-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
450 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL... NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM LEECH LAKE TO COOK AND THE
BOUNDARY WATERS THIS MORNING... TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR TODAY.

IN ADDITION... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY REACH MARGINALLY
SEVERE LEVELS TODAY... PERHAPS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  HOWEVER... THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS MUCH GREATER THAN
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA... THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THOSE TIME PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY... AND RAINFALL
REPORTS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED FROM ANY OF OUR SPOTTERS.

LSZ121-140>148-281100-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-SAND ISLAND TO
BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
450 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL... ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY... AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

 MILLER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
614 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ025-271130-
NORTH CASS-
614 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WALKER AND LEECH LAKE...

AT 613 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALKER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PHEASANT LAKE...      TEN MILE LAKE...      HACKENSACK...
  WALKER...             LEECH LAKE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4728 9468 4742 9437 4696 9414 4684 9466

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
616 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ033-271130-
SOUTH CASS-
616 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY...

AT 615 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOTLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEADER...             ESTERDY...          GULL LAKE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4680 9457 4662 9437 4629 9435 4632 9442
      4630 9455 4635 9466 4634 9473 4640 9479
      4668 9480

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

MNZ018-025-026-033-034-271200-
CROW WING-NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-
638 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CASS COUNTY...

AT 637 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WALKER TO JUST WEST
OF MOTLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  SOME LOCALES MAY PICK UP IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 20 MINUTES.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HACKENSACK...         CASINO...             BACKUS...
  PHEASANT LAKE...      LEECH LAKE...         EAST GULL LAKE...
  NORTH LONG LAKE...    GULL LAKE...          WHIPHOLT...
  SCHLEY...             PINE RIVER...         LAKE SHORE...
  CHICKAMAW BEACH...    LOWER WHITEFISH LAKE...
  LOWER HAY LAKE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4681 9478 4682 9467 4733 9468 4764 9393
      4641 9410 4635 9474 4640 9479 4673 9480

 MILLER