Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.AVIATION...06/07/06Z ISSUANCE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...AND SOME FOG AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...AND SOME
MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MAY BE CAPPED ON TUESDAY INTO THE EVENING...
WITH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE ARE SEVERAL
SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE...ONE IS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
THE OTHER A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA BACK INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE WARM
FRONT IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS SHARPENED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WITH MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA STILL 90-95F WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS...AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT KAQP/KBDH/KLJH/KCFE NORTH OF
THE FRONT.

THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF MUCAPE OF 2000-4000J/KG OVER
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WITH 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CONDITIONS SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...GIVEN WE GET
STRONGER LIFT INTO OUR CWA WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN. BOTH THE
KINL/KMPX SOUNDINGS HAD AROUND 100J/KG OF CIN AT 00Z...BUT A
MODIFIED SOUNDING AT KINL FOR WARMER AND MOISTURE LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOWED LITTLE CIN AND THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY SUPPORTED BY
THE SEVERE STORM THAT TRACKED ACROSS CASS/NORTHERN CROW WING
COUNTIES EARLIER THIS EVENING.

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE WARM FRONT FURTHER
NORTH. NAM SHOWS NOSE OF LLJ AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN CWA BETWEEN
08-10Z...WITH A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
AS DISCUSSED IN THE SWODY1...MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...QUESTION IS WHAT AREA WILL GET HIT. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA...AND WE WILL LEAVE THEM AS
IS FOR NOW...AND UPDATE LATE TONIGHT AS NEEDED TO ADJUST POPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...

ONE MAIN STORM WAS AFFECTING OUR CWA AS OF 645 PM CDT...AND THAT
WAS OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAS PRODUCED HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AROUND
630 PM. IT'S IN AN AREA OF 2000J/KG CAPE AND 40-45KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND WAS FORCED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE A QUESTION MARK THIS EVENING WITH
FORCING RATHER WEAK UNTIL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER TONIGHT.
OVERALL...THE NAM DECREASES THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IT VEERS
WINDS AROUND TO MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER
ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD INCREASE STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE INITIAL FOCUS FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN COULD FORM WESTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING IRON AND PRICE COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WILL TRY TO ADVANCE THE
WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH. PROJECTED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES FROM THE
HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF DEVELOP AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ORGANIZE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING. LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL ONLY BE IN 60S
WITH A STRONG EAST WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. QUESTION REMAINS
IF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BREAK THE CAP THAT WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. MODELS TRENDING ON THE CAP HOLDING FIRM. DID
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA AS STORMS MAY FIRE AT THE BOUNDARY OF THE
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM MIGHT BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WITH
SOME 4000 J/KG TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THE CWA IS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PRICE AND IRON COUNTIES.
RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
BORDERLAND ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP
FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WESTERLIES WILL STRETCH ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND INTO GT LAKES THIS
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF RW/TRW DEVELOPING BY END OF WEEK.
ALL MDLS TAKE A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROF EAST FROM NRN PLAINS INTO
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. HAVE RESHAPED/ADJUSTED COVERAGE OF
PREVIOUS POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MDL CONSENSUS. HIGHEST POPS
OCCUR FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT OVER SOUTH/EASTERN CWA IN AREA OF BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN BDRY LYR. USED ISO TRW IN GRIDS AS LATEST
MDL FCSTS ARE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH RESPECT TO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/SBCAPE/MUCAPE. MAX TEMPS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
OF CWA FRI/SAT BEFORE WARMING DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH BUILDING MID LVL
RIDGE. ONSHORE FLOW IN LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP NEAR LAKE COMMUNITIES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  71  41  53 /  30  10  10  10
INL  57  60  35  63 /  40  30  10  10
BRD  63  71  46  66 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  68  83  42  67 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  66  80  43  62 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BERDES
EXTENDED....EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
401 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-071030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
401 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION THROUGH THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-071030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
401 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BECOME
SEVERE.

KK

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
159 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     HAIL             GRAND RAPIDS            47.23N 93.52W
06/07/2011  E0.75 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
208 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

WIZ002-070745-
BAYFIELD-
208 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...MORE STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...

AT 207 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PORT WING...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HERBSTER BY 215 AM...
  MOQUAH BY 235 AM...
  BARKSDALE AND WASHBURN BY 240 AM...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4667 9155 4677 9151 4680 9141 4680 9138
      4684 9129 4677 9084 4673 9084 4650 9100

LAMERS

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