Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
102 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE HYR TERMINAL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT CIGS AND
SCATTER CLOUDS OUT THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HEAT UP AND PUMP IN A ROBUST
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...AND CAUSE RAPID
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BUILD IN A STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA AND
SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL 03-04Z TONIGHT AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 5-6 HOURS. TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO HANDLED -TSRA
WITH TEMPO GRPS...WITH VCTS FOR MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 10-13Z.
EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE PREVAILING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011/

UPDATE...
MAIN AREA OF FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM TSTORM
THREATS... IN PARTICULAR 1) EVOLVING TSTORM COMPLEX OVER NW
WISCONSIN 2) POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG RETREATING THERMAL
GRADIENT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND 3) STRONG EAST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAKE LOW ON TRAILING REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT
REGION OF MCS.

ONGOING TSTORMS OVER NW WISCONSIN HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE 9 AM..BUT REMAIN ROOTED IN THE 6-9 KFT AGL LAYER. SEVERE HAIL
THREAT HAS BEEN MARGINAL..BUT FAST STORM MOTION OF NEARLY 60 KTS
ON WASHBURN/SAYWER COUNTY CELL HAS WARRANTED WARNINGS FOR
WIND/HAIL AS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS TO PENETRATE STABLE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER EXISTS.

WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING NWD INTO MN..BUT SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED. TSTORMS HOLDING ON
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES METRO AS OF LATE MORNING SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO MID AFTERNOON JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE... BUT MOST LIKELY ALONG/NORTHEAST
OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN FROM
NEAR BEMIDJI-MOOSE LAKE-SPOONER CORRIDOR.

WEAK MESO-HIGH/WAKE LOW COUPLET HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS MCS..AND ENHANCED EAST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE SW TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT
KDLH. LOCAL WAKE LOW GUST PARAMETER SEEMS TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS..SO WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS VERY CLOSELY.
IF 50+ MPH WAKE LOW WINDS WERE TO DEVELOP..THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY
OCCUR ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR THE DULUTH TO SPOONER CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD
AS THE MCS PROGRESSES EAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATES TO ALL GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS/FIRE WEATHER ALREADY AVAILABLE.
 MILLER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011/

AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS KBRD/KHYR/KDLH/KHIB TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES...POSSIBLY IFR VIS IN HEAVIER
RAIN. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT BY AFTN SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FROM WEST.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL MAKE ITS WAY
AS FAR EAST AS KHYR/KHIB/KDLH TERMINALS. HAVE USED PROB 30 AT
KINL/KBRD FOR NOW. NEXT SET OF TAFS WILL TRY TO FOCUS MORE
SPECIFICALLY ON POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. KDLH SHOULD SEE
LOWERING CIG/VIS TO IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AS MARINE LAYER IS
TOPPED BY PROGRESSIVELY MORE HUMID AIR ALOFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN MN. SHORT TERM MDLS
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT LATEST WRF RUN DOES
PICK UP ON IT OVERSPREADING SW HALF OF CWA THROUGH DAY BREAK. THE
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OVER MN/WIS TODAY WITH HELP FROM A 40
KT SRLY LLJ. THE MORNING STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE DLH CWA.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES BECOME CAPPED BY THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME
AS H85 TEMPS REACH THE 10-12 C RANGE...LIMITING AFTERNOON STORMS
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING IN THE DAKOTAS NEAR THE SFC LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/TRIPLE POINT. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EAST INTO NCEN /WRN
DLH CWA/ THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN TRAIN OVER THE WRN ZONES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND BECOMES
STACKED WITH THE H50 CUT OFF LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
MDT/STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST MDL SUITE WITH REGARD TO SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN THIS PERIOD. ANOMALOUS MID LVL LOW TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS NRN
TIER IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER JET/DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE. STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
SYSTEM SHOULD ENSURE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AS UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW/DEEPENING MIXING LAYER ALLOW STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER. FUTURE
UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WIND/WIND GUSTS GRIDS. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN CHANGE THEN DEVELOPS AS MID LVL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER UPPER
MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WRN CONUS TROF. ALL MDLS SWING AN
EJECTING MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF NORTHEAST INTO APEX OF UPPER
RIDGE. AN OLD SFC BDRY WILL ADVANCE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH
FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN LL MSTR TRANSPORT. WITH A GENERAL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE...CONFIDENCE IN POP PLACEMENT/TIMING
GETS LESS OVER TIME. EXISTING FCST/GRIDS ARE REASONABLE SO LITTLE
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. UNSETTLED WX PATTERN TO LINGER INTO END
OF WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011/

AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON FOR ALL AERODROMES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AT DLH. SOME
QUESTION ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE TAF
FORECAST. STRONG CAP IN PLACE LATER MONDAY WILL PROBABLY DELAY THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END...OR JUST BEYOND
THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  74  46  66 /  70  40  20  10
INL  59  73  44  63 /  70  50  40  10
BRD  61  70  49  73 /  70  20  10  10
HYR  66  76  50  70 /  50  40  10  10
ASX  63  76  51  68 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...TENTINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
456 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-311000-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
456 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-311000-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
456 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERATE BUILDING WAVES TODAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING...REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

WIZ006>008-301700-
BURNETT-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
1145 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WASHBURN COUNTY...

AT 1144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHELL LAKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHELL LAKE...         SPOONER LAKE...       SPOONER...
  SARONA...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4565 9217 4571 9217 4588 9198 4595 9158
      4580 9132 4563 9158 4563 9215

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1212 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

WIZ006>008-301730-
BURNETT-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
1212 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN MOVING TOWARD THE HAYWARD LAKES
AREA...

AT 1209 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BARRONETT TO NEAR SARONA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TREGO...              EARL...               BIRCHWOOD...
  LITTLE SISSABAGAMA LAKE...                  SPRINGBROOK...
  EDGEWATER...          STONE LAKE...         EDGEWATER...
  RESERVE...            NORTHWOODS BEACH...   LITTLE ROUND LAKE...
  COUDERAY...           CHIEF LAKE...

STORMS WILL REACH THE HAYWARD LAKES AREA AND THE CHIPPEWA FLOWAGE
BETWEEN 1230 AND 1 PM.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4565 9217 4570 9217 4585 9202 4608 9135
      4584 9107 4563 9133 4563 9215

 MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W SARONA              45.71N 91.91W
05/30/2011                   WASHBURN           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF SEVERAL 8 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY
            ROAD D.

&&

SGOHDE