Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH THURSDAY.

FAST MOVING STRONG COLD FRONT IS THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM.

ONLY THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSE FIRE OVER LAKE COUNTY...WHICH INITIATED STORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF
SILVER BAY AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT AT 1930Z STRETCHED FROM NEAR
CRANE LAKE TO JUST WEST OF BRAINERD. WE COULD STILL SEE A NARROW
WINDOW WHERE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS AT LEAST 1000J/KG
OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 40-50KT KEEP LAYER SHEAR. ONE
THING WE'VE BEEN LACKING IS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THE FRONT
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 530 PM...AND OUR WI
COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND 8 PM...WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...CASS LAKE...WALKER...AND BIGFORK.

WE HAVE POPS ONLY THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...OVER OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...THEN WENT DRY. WE SHOULD HAVE TOO MUCH WIND TONIGHT TO GET
REAL COLD...SO NO FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL AFFECT THE NORTH TUESDAY...AND WE HAVE BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS THERE...AND KEPT IT DRY OVER THE FAR SOUTH.

ANY SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED SOME FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN A COLD NORTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH AND WITH ANY SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE MAIN LOW. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
GET GOING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS COMBINING WITH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RELATIVELY
WARMER LAKE SUPERIOR. WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DEEP ENOUGH WARM LAYER.

.EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FROM THUR NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. THE COOL AIR MASS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LINGER INTO THUR
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...AND WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW AND ALONG THE LAKE
SHORE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
DRY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW. ATTM...WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS LATE
SAT THROUGH SUN...AND WITH ADDED INSTABILITY AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...INTRODUCE ISOLATED T-STORMS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST IS APPROACHING EASTERN MINNESOTA AT THE
MOMENT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS SLIM AND IF ONE DOES
OCCUR IT WILL BE BRIEF. OPTIMISTIC THAT STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
BE ONLY SCATTERED INITIALLY FOR TOMORROW MORNING...THEN PROBABLY
MVFR BROKEN CEILINGS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  63  36  51 /  10  30  10  20
INL  40  61  31  49 /  10  50  10  20
BRD  45  66  37  53 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  46  68  37  54 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  48  67  40  54 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
EXTENDED....TENTINGER
AVIATION...KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
925 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-131030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
925 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ARROWHEAD...PORTIONS OF THE IRON
RANGE...TWIN PORTS...AND A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MORNING
TEMPERATURES...AND AREAS OF FROST...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-131030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
925 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PERSISTENT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

KK

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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