Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

AS OF 19Z...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING OUR WESTERN
CWA...WITH KPWC/KXVG/KVWU ALL SHOWING A VEERING WIND OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MANITOBA. ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...MLCAPE VALUES WERE
500-1000J/KG ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
MUCAPES 1000-2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE A SEVERE THREAT
WITH VALUES 30-40KT. SHEAR FURTHER EAST OVER FAR EASTERN
MN/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WAS LOWER...BUT IS FORECAST TO RISE THIS
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT APPROACH. VALUES WILL BE A BIT LOWER
THAN WE ARE SEEING FURTHER WEST THOUGH. A SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.

COOLER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. WE DIMINISHED
POPS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD FILTER IN ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. WE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AS WE EXPECT A FEW WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME HEATING.

LATEST NAM DEVELOPS SOME QPF ON WEDNESDAY OVER OUR FAR
EAST-NORTHEAST CWA...BUT LIFT SEEMS RATHER WEAK AND THE REST OF THE
MODELS REMAIN DRY SO WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS ATTM. WE DID
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOME.

WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR AND WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME POPS THEN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WARMING A BIT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS SHOULD
BE RATHER CHILLY WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE RANGE DROPPING CLOSE
TO FORTY.

.EXTENDED...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W AND CO-LOCATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN MN
BEGINNING THURS NIGHT AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ATTM...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH NE MN OCCURRING
SOME TIME BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND 00Z SAT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SOME TIME ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN ON BY LATE SAT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NW ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AROUND T-STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS. A SECONDARY LOW/MID
CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
NW WINDS INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KTS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. VSBYS ONLY DOWN
TO 3-4 SM.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  68  49  74 /  40  20  10  10
INL  55  67  45  75 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  56  70  49  77 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  60  71  47  78 /  50  20  10  10
ASX  59  69  52  77 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
EXTENDED....TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1010 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-091030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1010 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE YET THIS MORNING WEST OF A
LINE FROM BRAINERD TO ELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-091030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1010 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOMING GUSTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>