Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
316 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FA
AT 18Z AND A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A LAKE BREEZE WAS
WORKING ITS WAY INLAND...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE FORMED ON THE NORTHERN END OF
THE LAKE BREEZE IN LAKE COUNTY AND HAVE BECOME FAIRLY
STATIONARY...WHILE THE LAKE BREEZE CONTINUES TO MARCH INLAND.
OTHER CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE IRON RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST END NEAR GPZ...AND NEAR THE FRONT IN KOOCHICHING COUNTY.
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL NEAR SUNDOWN. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. SOME EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN MN. HAVE
A MENTION OF ISOLD STORMS THIS EVENING.

A SFC LOW ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE INTO NW MN WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO EASTERN SD. MODEL DIFFERENCES COME QUICKLY INTO PLAY
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS
THEM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VORT LOBE
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF. GFS HOLDS OFF ON THE PCPN. GEM/NAM/UKMET
ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE BLENDED THE HPC QPF WITH THE GEM AND
GFS FOR STORMS SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUE WITH THE BLENDED APPROACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS OVER THE SW THIRD OF
THE FA AND HAVE ALIGNED POPS TO MATCH. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...SO NOT EXPECTING THE DELUGE THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. HEAVIEST RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WHERE SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES THROUGH. AREA OF HIGHEST QPF TRANSLATES TO THE NORTHERN
TIER. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO HEAVY RAIN STILL A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. STILL USING THE BLENDED APPROACH TO QPF/POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. TRENDED THE
QPF/POPS DOWNWARD WITH ITS DEPARTURE USING THE HPC QPF AS A NICE
MODEL BLEND AND FOR TIMING. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH. NEXT SYSTEM QUEUES UP FOR AFFECTING
THE FA ON MONDAY AS A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN. MADE NO CHANGES TO
MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A LONG-TERM COOLING TREND BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER OUR AREA AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG SHORT-WAVE DEEPEN OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT.  SHOWERS AND SMALL COLD-ADVECTION THUNDER
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN END.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO PULL COLD AIR FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
CANADA INTO OUR AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER JAMES BAY AND
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE COLD HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND DRIFT EAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A LOW-LEVEL CAP AND
UNFAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DYNAMICS ALOFT AT THIS TIME. THE EAST-
WEST FRONT LIES ALONG A BJI- HIB-BFW LINE...WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW AREAS OF MID-CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH. CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  77  60  72 /  20  40  70  20
INL  57  76  57  74 /  20  20  70  10
BRD  64  83  62  75 /  10  60  70  10
HYR  62  86  64  77 /  10  30  70  20
ASX  63  83  62  75 /  10  20  70  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GSF
EXTENDED....EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IRON RANGE EAST TO
NEAR LITTLE MARAIS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA UNTIL SUNDOWN. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEST OF A LINE FROM BALL
CLUB TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY REACHING
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO
THE LEFT OF A LINE FROM BIGFORK TO DULUTH AND FROM SOLON SPRINGS
TO EDGEWATER WISCONSIN. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF THE STORMS OVER THE IRON RANGE GET STRONGER...SKYWARN SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LSZ121-140>148-061030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH
OF SILVER BAY INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. THE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

GSF

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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