Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

423 
WWUS83 KDLH 072022
RFWDLH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING...

GRASSES...BRUSH...CROPS AND STANDS OF TREES ARE ALL DRY ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY FIRES THAT DO IGNITE COULD BECOME FAST MOVING IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. 

MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038-080300-
/O.CON.KDLH.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-111008T0300Z/
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-
322 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...IN MINNESOTA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 010...011... 
  012...018...019...025...026...033...034...035...036...037 AND 
  038. 

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 37 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...IN THE 70S.

* IMPACTS...FOR INFORMATION ON BURNING RESTRICTIONS...VISIT THE 
  MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES AT 
  WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/FORESTRY 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

GRANING

701 
WWUS83 KDLH 080228
RFWDLH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
928 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038-080330-
/O.CAN.KDLH.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-111008T0300Z/
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-
928 PM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...AS
TEMPERATURES FALL AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT.

$$

MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL JET FROM
40-50 KNOTS STRENGTHENS. WE KEPT WIND SHEAR IN ALL THE TAFS AROUND
1500 FT AGL UNTIL AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT...AND WE KEPT 0.5SM IN FOG AT KDLH IN A TEMPO GROUP.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHLAND LATER FRIDAY...INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME...WE ONLY ADDED VCTS TO THE KBRD/KINL TAFS. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FORM BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. THE LINE MAY FORM FURTHER EAST IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING KHIB/KDLH EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

UPDATE...
UPDATED CODING AT THE BOTTOM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...

WE UPDATED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO OUR WESTERN CWA THIS
EVENING...AS AREA RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THIS OCCURRING.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING TOWARD KINL/KBRD. LLWS WILL BE A FACTOR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OVER ALL TAF SITES...CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP WITH 40-50 KNOTS BETWEEN
1500-2000FT AGL.

SOME FOG AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...
AT 300 PM...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA WERE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S
AND WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. THE EXCEPTION WAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT KEPT
CONDITIONS COOLER. INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE SAINT LOUIS RIVER VALLEY
WHERE LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY INCREASING
AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS BDRY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT OVER THE CWA. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
NORTH SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTH SHORE WHERE THE
GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE H92 WINDS AROUND 40-50 KT PERSIST
THROUGH 09-12Z SAT.

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WATCH FOR FRIDAY FOR ALL MINNESOTA
ZONES...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON STRONG WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. LATER SHIFTS
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSES RAIN POTENTIAL AND LOCATION WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FIRE DANGER IN THOSE AREAS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL TACK EAST OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. THERE IS A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN
WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT LINGERING A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY FROM SW MN...THROUGH NW WI AND INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. STILL GOING WITH HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ON
SUNDAY...THE LATEST GFS IS STILL BEING CONSISTENT HOLDING ON TO THE
WEAK BNDRY AND LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER S/W
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TO THE NORTH. WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF
SEEMS MORE REALISTIC...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A WWD RESURGING UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA AND STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
SUBDUE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP WITH SLGT CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH...AND TREND THE FORECAST MORE
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION SUNDAY. BESIDES THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES...MODELS IN MEDIOCRE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE FORM OF CHANCE RAIN SHOWER ON
MONDAY. THEN BY TUESDAY...A FAIRLY ROBUST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER THE WRN US AND USHERS IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ALONG WITH
A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THIS WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY 50S AND LOWER 60S NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEXT WEEK WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  70  49  61 /  30  20  20  10
INL  57  66  45  62 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  63  70  47  64 /  30  20  10  20
HYR  64  77  51  66 /  20  30  50  20
ASX  65  77  52  65 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR LSZ121-143>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

SHORT TERM...BERDES
EXTENDED....STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
708 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-071030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
708 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE HEAD OF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. CHECK THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE TO AITKIN MINNESOTA.

ALSO...VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHLAND ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. CHECK THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-071030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
708 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 7
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED. CHECK THE LATEST
MARINE FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)