Gale Warning 4, NWS Duluth, MN

261 
WHUS73 KDLH 211439
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS WAVES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...

LSZ121-140>148-212245-
/O.CON.KDLH.GL.W.0004.110621T1500Z-110623T0600Z/
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY. 

* WINDS AND SEAS: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED...AND GALE FORCE
  GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAVE
  HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS WELL WITH WAVES UP TO 11 FEET
  POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

136 
WHUS73 KDLH 212040
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND HAZARDOUS WAVES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LSZ121-140>148-220445-
/O.CON.KDLH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110623T0600Z/
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY. 

* WINDS AND SEAS: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED...AND
  GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS WELL WITH WAVES UP
  TO 11 FEET POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

067 
WHUS73 KDLH 220153
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
853 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

LSZ121-140>148-221000-
/O.CAN.KDLH.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110623T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.SC.Y.0032.110622T0153Z-110623T0600Z/
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
853 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS AND SEAS: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. ROUGH
  SEAS 7 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
MVFR CIGS HAVE ENVELOPED NW WI AND ARE SPREADING OVER LS TO THE
INLAND AREAS AND ARE PREDOMINATE AT KHYR AND KDLH. VFR OVER THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AT THE OUTSET. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS AT
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER 13Z WHEN PCPN BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FA. THE
EXCEPTION BEING AT KINL WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR. INTRODUCED VCTS AT
KBRD AND KHYR AS THEY WILL BE IN PROXIMITY TO BEST INSTABILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/

UPDATE...TOOK OUT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
IS WELL S OF THE AREA IN SOUTHERN MN. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
BRINGING THE PCPN INTO THE FA UNTIL NEAR 12Z TUESDAY AND HAVE
REMOVED POPS THIS EVENING AND LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER 06Z.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
HOLES HAVE OPEN IN THE CLOUD DECK COVERING THE FA AND CIGS HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KHYR WHICH IS HANGING
ONTO MVFR CIGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KHYR MAY IMPROVE TO
VFR SHORTLY. RETURN TO MVFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR GRADUALLY
OVERNIGHT FROM S TO N AT KBRD TO KHYR AFTER 06Z...KDLH AFTER
07Z...KHIB AFTER 08Z AND KINL WILL MAINTAIN VFR UNTIL NEAR 19Z/21.
LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO FOLLOW WITH MVFR VSBYS AFTER 13Z. KINL VSBYS
WILL NOT BE AFFECTED PRIOR TO 00Z/21.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011/

DISCUSSION...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL
KS. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND TRACK IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY
THE FAR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL FEED DRIER AIR
INTO THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
0-1KM STREAMLINES ARE FROM A VERY DRY SOURCE OVER HUDSON BAY INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER
TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT ON TUESDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA.

WAA/INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK NORTH INTO THE CWA. SPC SREF HAS
RATHER LOW PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER TONIGHT...BUT WE KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT...TAPERING TO A DRY FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTH. PWAT
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES.

MODELS FORECAST STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETAE ADVECTION INTO
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS EAST-SOUTHEAST 850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40-60KT FOR A TIME TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND NAM DO SHOW AN AREA OF FGEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THE
CWA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW
MUCAPES BUILDING NORTH...BUT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SMALL SEVERE
THREAT TUESDAY...AND IT WILL BE LIMITED TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT SOME LARGE HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS
NORTH OF THE FRONT.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY TWO. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE SHOWING ANOTHER MAXIMUM OF RAINFALL
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT SOLUTION IS LOW. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER UPDATE THE ESF(HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK). THERE
ARE A FEW THINGS HOLDING US BACK ATTM. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT
BE REAL HIGH AS BETTER CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
THE RAIN DOES FALL OVER A 36-48 HOUR PERIOD AND IT WILL FOLLOW A
MINIMUM OF 48 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR ONE
HOUR IS ALL AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH 6 HOURS
AMOUNTS AT OR ABOVE 3 INCHES. SREF AND HPC PROBABILITIES ALSO
DON'T SUPPORT ANY FLASH FLOODING AT THIS TIME. THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION AND FURTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE LOW ALSO LOWERS
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING. AREAL FLOODING
AND RISING RIVERS WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER
SAINT CROIX BASIN. THE ST. CROIX AT DANBURY HAS BEEN
DROPPING...AND WE DO EXPECT THE CREST TO WORK THROUGH GRANTSBURG
TONIGHT.

THIS STORM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO ISSUE SOME HEADLINES FOR FLOODING.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WILL CRAWL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW. KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES ONGOING FOR THURSDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXITING THE NORTHLAND
EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY RETURNING THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES FURTHER ENHANCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A WESTWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS SCATTERED THE
CLOUD DECK AT HYR AND DLH. THE DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO HIB BY 19Z
AND BY 22Z AT INL AND BRD. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS
HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY AIR. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
ON DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW SO BACKED OFF ON THE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT UNTIL THE 11Z TO 13Z TIME
FRAME. KEPT INL DRY AS THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT TAF
FORECAST CYCLE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  49  55  47 /  80  90  80  70
INL  73  54  59  49 /  50  70  70  60
BRD  64  57  62  55 /  90  90  80  60
HYR  69  60  66  53 /  90  90  70  60
ASX  62  51  60  48 /  80  90  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...GALE WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
733 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-211030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
733 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR FLOODING WOULD BE FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-211030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
733 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

GSF

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)