Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Duluth, MN

693 
WGUS73 KDLH 022018
FFSDLH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

MNC017-115-WIC031-022024-
/O.CAN.KDLH.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110802T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARLTON MN-PINE MN-DOUGLAS WI-
318 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN PINE AND SOUTHEASTERN CARLTON COUNTIES IS
BEING REISSUED AS A FLOOD WARNING...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE NEMADJI RIVER AND
ITS HEADWATER AREAS. WHILE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED 
FLOODING FLOWS CONTINUE ON THE NEMADJI RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.  
HIGH WATER IS IMPACTING ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE INUNDATED.
AGAIN...THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AREAL 
FLOOD WARNING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED..PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4635 9246 4646 9264 4663 9254 4660 9225
      4671 9200 4670 9198 4669 9194 4662 9196
      4633 9223

$$

GOHDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1100 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.UPDATE...
WE LINGERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT CROIX
VALLEY...THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN...AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN A FEW
HOURS. WE ALSO MERGED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SO THAT IT
WOULD BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL 100 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WE LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RECOMPUTED THE
HEAT INDEX ACROSS THE RAIN AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE FRONT IS COMPLEX...WITH A WAVE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES. FURTHERMORE...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST
OF THE RED RIVER. HIGH DEW POINTS GO BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE RED
RIVER AND PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH ACROSS ALL OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SO...WE FEEL THAT GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS
FORECASTS ARE RUSHING PRECIPITATION OUT A LITTLE TOO FAST. SHOWERS
EVEN LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL PUSH DANGEROUS WEATHER BEYOND OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM
PINE COUNTY ON EAST ACROSS NWRN WI THROUGH 15Z. HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL RISE AND SCATTER BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BUILD OVER THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THESE STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING.

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED ALONG A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL MN SEWD INTO W-CNTRL WI LAST EVENING AND
TRACKED SLOWLY TO THE E/NE...WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SUB-SEVERE
BUT WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL. A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WITH A FEW SVR STORMS DEVELOPED IN NW MN AND TRACKED TO
THE E/SE ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS COMPLEX
WEAKENED BRIEFLY BEFORE COMING IN CONTACT WITH A VERY STRONG LLJ
AND INTENSIFYING INTO A FAST-MOVING SEWD PROPAGATING BOW ECHO...
AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW WI. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A
FEW ISOLATED PERIODS OF SVR HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER MOST OF NE MN
AND ALL OF NW WI. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER EXTREME NERN
MN HAS PASSED...SO PARTS OF THE WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS
AREA. THERE ARE ALSO FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. LOCATIONS IN NE MN AND NW WI HAVE SEEN 1-2
INCHES...WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS SEEING AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES
IN A VERY SHORT TIME PERIOD. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST...AND THE CONTINUED STORMS
MOVING THROUGH NW WI. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCT FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING...A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MDT-STG INSTABILITY
ACROSS CNTRL MN INTERACTING WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INITIATE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS NRN MN ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING TODAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTH AND NW.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND...HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LARGE MCS CURRENTLY AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN
PRODUCED BY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 10Z...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. LOW CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MORNINGS HOURS
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FOG. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT BY MID- MORNING...WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  58  81  59 /  40  10  10  10
INL  82  50  82  57 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  84  59  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  81  59  83  55 /  80  10  10  10
ASX  81  59  80  55 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ036>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
724 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
724 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WALKER TO TWO HARBORS TO IRONWOOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-031030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
724 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY FROM SUPERIOR TO SAXON
HARBOR. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THE LATE
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.

TENTINGER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 AM     FLOOD            5 N HOLYOKE             46.54N 92.39W
08/02/2011                   CARLTON            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUDSLIDE WITH DEBRIS AND TREES PARTIALLY BLOCKING HWY 23
            NEAR MILE MARKER 324 NEAR THE NAMADJI RIVER.

&&

HLUCHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
940 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

WIZ003-006>008-021515-
ASHLAND-BURNETT-SAWYER-WASHBURN-
940 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ...

AT 937 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BLAISDELL LAKE TO MCKENZIE LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRINGBROOK AND LITTLE ROUND LAKE BY 950 AM...
  CHIEF LAKE BY 1005 AM...
  NORTHWOODS BEACH BY 1010 AM...
  NEW POST AND STONE LAKE BY 1015 AM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4589 9080 4582 9162 4593 9168 4590 9215
      4597 9227 4615 9093

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     FLOOD            10 E HINCKLEY           46.01N 92.73W
08/02/2011                   PINE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON STATE HWY 48 AT MILE MARKER 10.

&&

HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
959 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW PHILLIPS           45.64N 90.47W
08/02/2011  M2.70 INCH       PRICE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CCHRIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1007 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     FLOOD            RADISSON                45.77N 91.22W
08/02/2011                   SAWYER             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY HWY H CLOSED NORTH OF RADISSON

&&

HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEBB LAKE               46.01N 92.13W
08/02/2011  M3.75 INCH       BURNETT            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CCHRIST