Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Duluth, MN

107 
WGUS73 KDLH 190957
FFSDLH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
457 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MNC115-WIC013-191500-
/O.CON.KDLH.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110619T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PINE MN-BURNETT WI-
457 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL BURNETT
AND EAST CENTRAL PINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 452 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE IN THE MARKVILLE AND DANBURY AREAS... 
BUT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAD ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ALSO REPORTED A ROAD WASHOUT NEAR DUXBURY 
AROUND 4 AM. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS 
REPORT...AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY OCCURRING FROM 
NEAR MARKVILLE TO A FEW MILES NORTHWEST OF DANBURY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
DANBURY...DUXBURY...MARKVILLE AND RIVERSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL AS
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN.

&&

LAT...LON 4616 9242 4616 9214 4597 9233 4593 9256
      4611 9264

$$

LAMERS

203 
WGUS73 KDLH 191437
FFSDLH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
937 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MNC115-WIC013-191449-
/O.CAN.KDLH.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110619T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PINE MN-BURNETT WI-
937 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
BURNETT AND EAST CENTRAL PINE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OR ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND NO REPORTS 
OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO RISE...AND WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH.

LAT...LON 4616 9242 4616 9214 4597 9233 4593 9256
      4611 9264

$$

MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST MN...WITH LOW END MVFR IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST WI...WITH AREA AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW-END MVFR
AND IFR IN AND NEAR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AND LIFR IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

UPDATE...
WE ARE IN A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM SITUATION WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECTED BRISK ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND THE BIG LAKE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...
A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH
AXIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIPITABLE RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA APPROACHES TWO INCHES...
WITH A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AT THIS
TIME...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE SMALL...NOT ORGANIZED
OVER OUR AREA...AND MOVING ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SINGLE LOCATIONS
FROM ACCUMULATING FLOODING RAIN. DEW POINTS ARE HIGH AND BRIEFLY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS AFFECTING MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER ST CROIX VALLEY. ONE FACT ER
MITIGATING RAINFALL HERE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN A COUNTY OR TWO SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...THIS BAND IS ABSORBING SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE FLOW INTO OUR AREA. WE ARE RETAINING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND AROUND THE UPPER SAINT CROIX VALLEY
UNTIL MID-DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE TENDENCY FOR SUCH THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD OUT AND FOLLOW EACH OTHER AS IN A TRAIN AFTER DARK AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS NO SPECIFIC INFORMATION AS TO
EXACTLY WHERE SUCH TRAINING WOULD SET UP...IF IT DOES.

THERE IS AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SITUATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ARROWHEAD...AND DOWN THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY HAS FORMED A
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY. THIS
PATTERN IS BEING ANCHORED BY A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT. EXCESSIVELY
DRY AIR...WITH DEW POINTS BELOW 40F...IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST ARROWHEAD AND HAS WORKED ITS WAY ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO DULUTH ON BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS DRY AIR HAS...AND
CONTINUES TO...ABSORB MOST OR ALL RAIN THAT FALLS INTO IT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARROWHEAD...THIS IS CAUSING A FIRE DANGER
SITUATION AND NOT HELPING THE LONG-STANDING DROUGHT SITUATION
NORTH AND EAST OF A SILVER BAY TO ELY LINE. HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE OF TRIVIAL AND BARELY MEASURABLE RAINFALLS UP
THERE...EVEN AS SUBSTANTIAL RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE FOREIGN...
AMERICAN...AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THIS
VERY SHALLOW DRY AIR AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER-EMPHASIZED ITS
IMPACT. OUR MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NORTH SHORE TOWARD
DULUTH...WITH A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF OVER-EMPHASIZING
MOISTURE AROUND THAT RIDGE.

AVIATION...06/19/00Z ISSUANCE...
GENERAL LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS...SCATTERED LIFR IN THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN...WILL DETERIORATE TO LOW-END MVFR IN CLOUDS AND
RAIN LATE THIS EVENING. GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AGAIN ABOUT MIDMORNING SUNDAY. AGAIN...SCATTERED LIFR IN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELD
CLEARLY INDICATE A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS TRANSLATING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW MN THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ACT UPON A FARILY
DECENT INSTABILITY AXIS /MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG/ OVER ERN MN AND
WRN WI..RESULTING IN A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WCENT WI AND CENT/SRN MN. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT WHILE
TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS/SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES/INCREASING PRECIP WATER AND PROGGED VERY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS WITHIN MAIN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL RESULT IN AN ATTENDANT
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN AT THIS LATE TIME..IT IS STILL VERY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT AREAS MOST AT RISK AS SO MUCH IS
DEPENDENT ON STORM SCALE PROPAGATION AND INTERACTIONS.
THEREFORE..WE HAVE BROAD BRUSHED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR AREAS FROM LAKE MILLE LACS TO DULUTH AND ALL
POINTS EASTWARD. GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF
PINE/BURNETT/WASHBURN COUNTIES WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN FROM STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING IN SOME
LOCALES.. AND PERHAPS SAWYER/PRICE COUNTIES WHERE LONGER RESIDENCE
TIME OF ROBUST PW VALUES WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY.

S/W TROF AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY..WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF NW WISCONSIN. WE MAY
NEED TO MONITOR THE MN ARROWHEAD PRETTY CLOSELY FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

BRIEF RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER..S/W TROF ROTATING SEWD THROUGH ONTARIO WILL BRUSH
THE MN ARROWHEAD WITH SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT..AND WE HAVE
RETAINED POPS THERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION..WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
ERN SD INTO SRN MN..AND A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED IN
COLORADO MONDAY MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
MINNESOTA BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT
DO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REGARDING DETAILS OF TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM. WE
WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL
SOLUTION... THE CWA WILL BE IMPACTED BY A STRONG LOW.

WE CONFINED POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY...THEN INCREASED THEM
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF THIS LOW WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE
AND STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL...POSSIBLY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW WHICH STILL IS
IN DOUBT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.EXTENDED...

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  61  48  58 /  10  10  50  50
INL  50  68  49  67 /  10  10  20  50
BRD  56  72  57  65 /  20  30  70  70
HYR  55  74  57  67 /  10  20  60  60
ASX  48  62  51  62 /  20  20  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ036>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1217 PM AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-190930-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1217 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN...AFFECTING AREAS FROM LAKE MILLE
LACS AND AITKIN... TO HINCKLEY... PINE CITY... GRANTSBURG... SPOONER
AND HAYWARD.  THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
3 INCHES BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.  IN ADDITION... IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE... WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST
PART OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK. SOME OF THE
RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY IN THAT SAME TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-190930-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1217 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES FROM 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SEE THE
LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE SAME TIME FRAME...WHICH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS
OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

 MILLER

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)