Winter Weather Advisory 7, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. A LEAD WAVE WILL
EJECT OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT GIVING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY WITH EAST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH. MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR COULD
PUSH INTO THE FAR WEST COUNTIES BY TUESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO
THE MUCH COLDER WRF. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH FROM
GARDEN CITY TO NEAR LACROSSE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THAT AREA
ALSO. THE WRF LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF AND WILL STICK CLOSER
TO THE GFS MODEL. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LESSER POPS GOING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FAR WEST FROM LACROSSE
TO DODGE CITY AND ELKHART AND RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OF THE MUCH COLDER WRF MODEL SHOWS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND RAIN FROM AROUND HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL HOWEVER WILL
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW AND NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AND WAIT FOR
LATER GUIDANCE.

WITH EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS AFTER 6 AM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF UP TO 6 INCHES AND WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TUESDAY INTO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FAR NORTH COUNTIES OF SCOTT, LANE, NESS, RUSH, TREGO, AND
ELLIS.

FOR TODAY LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH AND THEN TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST FA TO
THE LOW 60S SOUTHWEST. THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GOING
GUIDANCE BECAUSE CURRENT THINKING IS CLOUDS WILL HINDER SOME
WARMING.

FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 MPH BECOMING EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30
FAR WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST FA.

ON MONDAY LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOTS OF MID CLOUDS.
COULD ALSO BE SOME VIRGA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE
GROUND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND
50 SOUTH.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOTS OF STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND LESSER WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 20S WITH WARMER MID 30S OVER MEDICINE LODGE.
THE LOWS IN THE WEST COULD BE COLDER IF THE WRF MODEL IS CORRECT.

DAYS 3-7...

THE GFS - GEM AND ECMWF ALL PLACE WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS IN A
WIDESPREAD REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND PVA WHICH WILL IMPLY
WIDESPREAD UPWARD OMEGA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALSO AID IN RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE RAIN AND SNOW LINE, BUT THE BEST
GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM AT THE 850 MB LEVEL
WILL HAVE REACHED A HAYS TO GCK LINE. FROM EXAMINING THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IT WILL
BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW, AND TO THE COLD SIDE,
A VERY WET SNOW COULD BE PRODUCED GIVEN THE REAL PREFERRED DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IS GOING THE BE QUITE HIGH (WELL ABOVE 700 MB) AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERE ARE NEAR IF NOT RIGHT
ON THE 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM ON THE SKEW-T DIAGRAM. HAVING SAID THAT, THE
EVENT IS YET A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT IN TIME AND SEVERAL MODEL RUNS
REMAIN AS THE SYSTEM COMES INTO THE REGIONAL DOMAIN. THE UPPER
HEIGHT FIELDS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, WHILE THE LAST GEM RUN WAS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING AND ACTUALLY CLOSED OFF THE UPPER LOW
SLIGHT FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THAN THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL RUNS.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS, THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR TO THE SOUTH IS
SPRINGLIKE, AND THE REPLACEMENT AIRMASS WILL BE PARTIALLY OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN AND THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS ONLY
AROUND 1025 MB. THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE SNOWPACK LEFT OVER COULD BE
VERY SIGNIFICANT TO HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET IN THE DAYS
FOLLOWING, BUT AT THIS TIME, WE WOULD EXPECT A VERY RAPID MELTOFF.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY SEE IMPRESSIVELY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE THE 60S AND 70S.

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER JET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION THOUGH
TONIGHT, SATURATING THE COLUMN AND THICKENING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WILL REMAIN FREE OF CEILINGS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THAT,
CONFIDENCE WANES AS A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED TO SHOVE SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT LOW LEVEL STRATUS BY
12Z MONDAY AS FAR SOUTH AS A HYS TO GCK LINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  32  45  28 /   0  10  10  50
GCK  59  30  44  25 /   0  10  10  60
EHA  63  31  49  27 /   0   0  10  40
LBL  63  31  49  27 /   0   0  10  40
HYS  56  32  41  27 /   0  20  30  70
P28  58  36  54  36 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046.

&&

FN06/33

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