Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

70-80KT UPPER JET WAS LOCATED OVER WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA AT
12Z WITH THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. A WEAK 500MB VORT LOBE WAS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS IN
THIS MOISTURE PLUME IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AT 12Z WITH ALL TO THE
MODELS TO VARIOUS DEGREE SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION THAT WAS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS VORT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND BASED ON LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY,
CU/CONVECTION THAT HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN WESTERN KANSAS, AND
LATE DAY INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
FOR EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION. THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
ONGOING PRECIPITATION EARLY TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF THE
K96 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGH
CHANCES/LIKELY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS WESTERN KANSAS A SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE DAY WHICH CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 85 TO 95
DEGREES. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY LATE DAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS UPSLOPE FLOW STARTS TO IMPROVES. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY HOWEVER NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT GIVEN THIS WEAK
LIFT AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTH NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 70KT 250KT JET.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS STARTS
TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE 850MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

DAYS 3-7...

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGIN
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NONETHELESS...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-70 KNOT
UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING OF
THE LEE TROUGH AND EVENTUAL FRAGMENTATION AS A PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...TO LIFT
BACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A 35 TO 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. A BELT OF THETA/E ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY POSITION ALONG WITH MU CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE ON MONDAY.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND CLOUD COVER VIA CONVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY WILL BE
THEN TURN HOT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE PROVIDING FOR STRONG INSOLATION AND 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30C...WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
AMAZINGLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY ELONGATING THE RIDGE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHERN STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A SUBSIDENT/WEAKLY DYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES OF 100+F ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.  BEHIND THIS WEAK BOUNDARY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PLAGUE THE GCK, DDC AND HYS TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 TO
50 MPH THE MAIN PROBLEM.  OTHERWISE...A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 8 TO 9 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  92  68  94 /  30  20  10  20
GCK  68  90  67  92 /  40  20  10  20
EHA  69  93  67  91 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  70  94  68  93 /  30  20  20  20
HYS  68  87  67  90 /  60  30  20  10
P28  74  92  71  96 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ081-089-090.

&&

FN18/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
825 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201330-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
825 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011 /725 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, ALONG WITH HAIL
AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS
DODGE CITY, LARNED AND ULYSSES, BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. IN
ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST NEXT
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM WAKEENEY TO HAYS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW KENDALL           37.94N 101.55W
08/19/2011  E60 MPH          HAMILTON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
342 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N HOLCOMB             38.06N 100.99W
08/19/2011  E60 MPH          FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

KSZ043-044-062-063-077-192130-
FINNEY-GRAY-KEARNY-LANE-SCOTT-
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KEARNY...
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY...NORTHWESTERN GRAY...SCOTT AND SOUTHWESTERN LANE
COUNTIES...

AT 341 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARIENTHAL TO
GARDEN CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3865 10102 3818 10039 3782 10092 3791 10111
      3858 10114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 232DEG 13KT 3841 10123 3796 10082

SUGDEN