Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...

THE 12 UTC UPPER AIR SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER JET
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WHILE A WEAK TROUGH AND
COLD POOL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES AT 500 MB ALSO MIGRATED
EASTWARD. A LARGE WARM PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR STILL ENCOMPASSED THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT 850 MB WAS NOTED AS THE 16 DEG C ISODROSOTHERM EXTENDED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST US INTO NORTHERN KANSAS, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DODGE CITY.

WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALREADY IN
THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
WEAK UPPER FORCING IS ALL THAT WE ARE SEEING AT THIS TIME, SO WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING VERY WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS OR TRAINING. ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR MIGHT LEAD TO WEAKLY
ROTATING CELLS HOWEVER, ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THIS EVENING.

IF THE STORMS REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST, THERE MAY BE LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DUE TO EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS IN GENERAL ARE INDICATING THE FRONT BE
PUSHED FARTHER SOUTHWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
REGENERATION OF CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY FOCUSED MORE ON THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THAT BEING SAID, THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE
POSITIONED ZONALLY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AGAIN FRIDAY,
WHICH MAY CREATE ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THEREFORE, ANY WHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA HAS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE A REPEAT OF
SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION. CLOUDS/CONVECTION TODAY AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE
WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. SATURDAY PRESENTS MORE OF A FORECAST CHALLENGE
WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MIGHT WIND UP BEING
POSITIONED. THE CONSENSUS HOWEVER IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 100+ DEGREE ZONE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MAINTAINING AN
ESSENTIALLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE DDC FORECAST AREA. AN OUTLYING
WRF/NAM WILL EXTEND CONVECTION FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
KANSAS.

RUSSELL

.LONG TERM...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MENTIONED IN THE DAYS 1-2
DISCUSSION WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, AND WE WILL NO LONGER BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET. IN ADDITION, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN BY SATURDAY. LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL FRONTOLYSIS ACROSS KANSAS SINCE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY UP AND DOWN THE PLAINS. SO IN THE ABSENCE OF JET
FEATURES AND FRONTS THAT WOULD PROMOTE LIFT, ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES MANITOBA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LEE
TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN UP AND DOWN THE PLAINS. SO ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL NOT EXPECTED IN THE ABSENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION, LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE
ADVERTISED TO BE SOUTHERLY INSTEAD OF SOUTHWESTERLY, SO EXTREME HEAT
SHOULD BE ABSENT. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102.

FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVERTISED BY ALL
THE MODELS TO FLATTEN OUT, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, A SURFACE FRONT THAT PROGRESSES DOWN
THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY AUGUST 5TH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT IT
WILL BE EXTREMELY HOT GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FLAT 500MB RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD REACH TO BETWEEN 105F AND 110 EACH DAY. IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE. SO THE EXTREME HEAT COULD
EASILY EXTEND NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY.

FINCH

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT DDC/GCK/HYS BETWEEN 21 AND 12 UTC.
EXPECT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.
AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 00Z.

FINCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  95  73 100 /  50  30  40  10
GCK  70  94  70  97 /  50  30  30  10
EHA  71  95  70  99 /  40  30  40  10
LBL  73  97  72  99 /  40  30  30  10
HYS  72  91  72  99 /  60  40  40  10
P28  76  99  76 102 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-080-081-089-
090.

&&

FN33/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
915 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-290930-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
915 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 /815 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
LIMITED NUMBER OF STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH, HAIL LARGER THAN QUARTERS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
ALSO, A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO HAYS.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STAFFORD TO GREENSBURG AND COLDWATER CORRIDOR. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WEATHER MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SINCE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

07/33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE ELLIS             38.99N 99.53W
07/28/2011  E60.00 MPH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

            HAIL ALSO FELL, BUT SIZE WAS NOT DETERMINED.

&&

01

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

KSZ075-076-085-086-282130-
GRANT-HASKELL-SEWARD-STEVENS-
350 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN STEVENS...
NORTHWESTERN SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF MOSCOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3752 10121 3740 10089 3715 10112 3723 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 208DEG 12KT 3725 10117

WAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             3 S MOSCOW              37.28N 101.21W
07/28/2011  E0.25 INCH       STEVENS            KS   PUBLIC

            A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL 3 MILES
            SOUTH OF MOSCOW.

&&

WHOVORKA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
436 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

KSZ046-065-066-282215-
PAWNEE-RUSH-STAFFORD-
436 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN
STAFFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRIZELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3823 9872 3804 9914 3822 9932 3847 9905
      3845 9902 3827 9902 3827 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 239DEG 19KT 3820 9916

WAH