Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING, THEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND
STRONG WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES.
THE RUC SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO
NEBRASKA WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BEHIND IT. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW LOTS OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN THE EAST FA AND IN
THE WEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS SHOW VERY
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS AND WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD
HAVE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
FORM WITH NEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST EXACTLY WHERE THE STORMS
END UP BY EVENING WITH SO MUCH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OF 2000 TO
3500 J/KG AND NEW STORMS FORMING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL KEEP
POPS GOING AS IS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ALSO
MOVING WEST TO EAST AND COULD INHIBIT SOME HEATING. EXPECT LARGE
HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND WIND GUSTS OVER
70 MPH INTO THE EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CORES
CRASHING TO THE GROUND AND BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINATE BECAUSE OF A
LACK OF HIGH LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. THE STORMS WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY BY OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE SUN SETS AND LITTLE IF ANY
FORCING PREVAILS. LOOK FOR MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 22 MPH KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL
MIXED. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM AROUND 70 EAST TO THE UPPER 60S
WEST.

ON THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
POSITIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35
MPH AND BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY. ALSO SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT DEEP MIXING A BIT AND KEEP US FROM REACHING THE
WIND CRITERIA. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. A WARM MID
LEVEL CAP SHOULD INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD AGAIN AND FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY HELP WITH THE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
AS WELL.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE NAM IS A
BIT MORE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING IN THE NORTH WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH LOWER INSTABILITY, HOWEVER WITH NEAR
1000 CAPES COULD HAVE SOME HAIL UP TO DIMES OR NICKELS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WILL BE CLOSE TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. MODELS ARE
VARYING GREATLY ON FORECAST DEWPOINTS AND HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH
HIGHER GFS DEWPOINTS. THIS KEEPS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE THE
THRESHOLD OF 15 PERCENT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS FROM STANTON TO GRAY COUNTY AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS NEWER GUIDANCE COMES IN.

DAYS 3-7...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS AS THE
SUMMER PATTERN OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO A WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH AND SOME LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY
SUNDAY, THE 500 HPA RIDGE STARTS TO RETROGRADE FURTHER WEST WHICH
SHOULD SQUASH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. BY NEXT
WEEK, THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST. THE 12Z MODELS ARE MORE DRY AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THAN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS SOLUTION SO 10 PERCENT POPS NEXT WEEK LOOK REASONABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONGER DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LOOK PRIMARILY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
90S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR LOWS. SUMMER TIME IS HERE
TO STAY AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
TO SEE IF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER KANSAS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT WOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM GOING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT WITH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. HAVE RETAINED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK TWO PRODUCT, WHICH MATCHES UP WITH
THE NATIONAL CENTERS. -SUGDEN

&&

.AVIATION...

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS. THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE CIN AND PLENTY OF
SBCAPE OVER THE REGION (-25/3000 J/KG) AND THINK IT WILL BE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE BEGINNING IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL SITES HAVE VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THINK SOME RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EAST TOWARDS 06Z WHERE THERE IS BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS). CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. SEE LATEST SWODY1 FOR MORE INFO. -SUGDEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  95  70  96 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  69  96  69  96 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  68  97  68  95 /  30  10  10   0
LBL  69  97  69  97 /  30  10  10   0
HYS  70  96  70  95 /  30   0   0  20
P28  71  95  71  98 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/36

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-021945-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
235 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011 /135 PM MDT WED JUN 1 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SLOW MOVING AND PUT OUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. LOOK FOR THE STORMS TO DECREASE OR END BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AS THE SUN SETS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO KANSAS ON
FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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