Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

AS DEEP MIXING CONTINUES WILL HAVE SOME STATIONS HITTING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA AND WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING. ALSO WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING.

A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
MORNING. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HELP
TO SET OFF THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE
FROM NEAR HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND AND EAST THIS EVENING. THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LASTLY THROUGH MEDICINE LODGE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS. TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE HOWEVER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH
THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS A MARGINALLY SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CALLED AND MCS. WILL GO WITH 30 TO 60 POPS THIS EVENING FROM THE
DRYLINE AND EAST THEN END POPS BEFORE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT
WARMER IN THE LOW 60S AROUND MEDICINE LODGE.

A NICE DAY IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES INTO
THE PLAINS. THE GFS HAS LOTS OF HIGH DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
THEN COULD HAVE STRATUS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND
WILL ADD A SMALL TO SILENT POP TO COVER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
LOOKS TIGHT AND WILL BE CLOSE TO A WIND ADVISORY. LOWS LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 60 T0 65 WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING WARMER.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY PUSHING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES EJECTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING
COMBINED WITH INCREASED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT WITH H85 DEWPOINTS WELL ABOVE 10C. WILL NEED TO INSERT A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINING AS TO THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY,
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL
BE OFF TO OUR WEST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN FAIRLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INFLUENCES A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL NEAR AND ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER HELPING TO ENHANCE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
20S(C) EAST TO NEAR 30C WEST. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES LIKELY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NEAR 100F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KHYS TO KDDC.
WILL PUSH BACK THE MENTION OF CB'S AT BOTH KHYS AND KDDC UNTIL AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING WHEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20KT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  85  62  92 /  20   0  20  20
GCK  53  85  60  93 /  10   0  20  20
EHA  50  85  59  94 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  49  85  62  94 /  10   0  20  20
HYS  53  83  60  92 /  50  10  20  20
P28  63  87  67  92 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

FN06/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-311000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
509 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 /409 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
TODAY FROM ASHLAND TO JETMORE TO WAKEENEY AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING
WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LARNED TO ASHLAND LINE AND MAINLY AFTER 8
PM. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STRONGEST STORM THIS EVENING WILL
BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. MORE DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE
NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT WEST OF A DIGHTON TO CIMARRON TO MEADE LINE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO ASHLAND.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

UMSCHEID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1108 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             W BISON                 38.52N 99.20W
05/30/2011  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MSCOTT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1126 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             ENE BUCKLIN             37.55N 99.63W
05/30/2011  E0.88 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND GST     LARNED                  38.18N 99.10W
05/30/2011  E60 MPH          PAWNEE             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALSO RECEIVED 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

&&

MSCOTT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>