Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Dodge City, KS

457 
WWUS53 KDDC 180301
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSC075-180311-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-110618T0330Z/
HAMILTON KS-
901 PM MDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3806 10154 3827 10153 3827 10113 3778 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 298DEG 40KT 3808 10138

$$

KSC093-180330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-110618T0330Z/
KEARNY KS-
1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KEARNY COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 957 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF KENDALL...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAKIN...
  DEERFIELD...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF KEARNY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 10154 3827 10153 3827 10113 3778 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 298DEG 40KT 3808 10138
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE KDDC RADAR DEPICTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS
ARKANSAS AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL COLORADO. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR DENVER. WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WITH WINDS
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TO NEAR 100 ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WEATHER
PATTERN ALOFT DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TWO BRANCHES OF THE JET ARE
OBSERVED WITH ONE EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND FINALLY INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE OTHER BRANCH OF THE JET SWINGS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THEN UP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CENTRAL COLORADO. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO AROUND
70 ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO OUR CWA BY TOMORROW EVENING.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ALOFT AND INDUCE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
OUR CWA WHICH IN TURN SHOULD INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50/60
DEGREE MARK. THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH LEAVING OUR AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT OF THE JET. A FEW MODELS
HAVE AN MCS ROLLING THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.  A FEW OTHER MODELS HAVE CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. I HAVE KEPT THE 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL AS ANY OTHER CONVECTION THAT MAY
OCCUR. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO THE
EAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK TO BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TO MID 90S ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

SUNDAY...
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTING OUR
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW DUE TO
LACK UP LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO SOAR
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 100S IN SOME PLACES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND A FIRE WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED. I WILL HAVE THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT LOOK AT THE 00Z
MODELS TO SEE IF THIS IS NEEDED.

DAYS 3-7...
DAYS 3-7...

FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND DRY LINE AND THE SUBSEQUENT MAX TEMPS AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. REMARKABLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EXTREMELY
SIMILAR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER FLOW.  BOTH
HAVE A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL (50H) CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. BUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR STRONG SYSTEMS LOCATED IN
THAT AREA, THE EML WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE MY AREA AND THE
HOT AND DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
SPRING WILL SPREAD INTO MY CWA.  HOWEVER, IF THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
WELL INTO MY CWA AS ADVERTISED, THE ONLY AREAS TO GET VERY HOT WILL
BE THE SOUTHEAST AREAS, FROM ROUGHLY DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE. I
WILL HAVE POPS IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT AREAS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HANG IN THERE BUT IT APPEARS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE MOISTURE SCORED WELL TO THE EAST WITH DEEP MIXING
OF THE DRY AIR.  THE MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND I CAN'T ARGUE WITH THIS SOLUTION.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO IA/MN THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL DAYS OF CAA
BRINGING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND IF THERE IS
ANY STRATOCUMULUS DECK, MAYBE AS LOW AS THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

LEE TROUGHING LATER IN THE WEEK SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SOUTH OR
EVEN SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND EVENTUALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.  HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS COULD DRIFT INTO MY COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUT
SINCE THIS IS STILL 5-7 DAYS OUT THERE IS NO NEED TO GET TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND ALTO CUMULUS FIELD FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. HOWEVER WITH A RELATIVELY MOISTURE
BOUNDARY LAYER, THERE COULD BE A LOWER DECK DEVELOP BY SUNRISE.
IT'S JUST A POSSIBILITY, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  90  66 103 /  10  30  30  10
GCK  64  90  64 102 /  20  30  30  10
EHA  63  92  63 102 /  10  20  30   0
LBL  66  93  65 102 /  10  20  30   0
HYS  66  85  64  96 /  20  30  40  20
P28  72  94  70 103 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN42/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-180830-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
320 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 /220 AM MDT FRI JUN 17 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL AS THIS AREA WILL BE
THE WARMEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED IN THIS AREA.

ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO HAYS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS OF MARGINAL SEVERE WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND WIND. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ASCERTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT AT THIS POINT PAST THE
WEEKEND. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FROM DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO BORDER AS TEMPERATURES WARM
UP AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED ON
THESE DAYS FOR THIS AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

36

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
937 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             17 N SYRACUSE           38.23N 101.75W
06/17/2011  E0.50 INCH       HAMILTON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 50 MPH.

&&

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