Heat Advisory 16, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATING MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH BASED ON THE
500MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 00Z MONDAY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. FURTHER NORTH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CANADA/WEST COAST OR WASHINGTON. AT
THE 700MB AND 850MB LEVELS THE WARMEST AIR THIS EVENING WAS STILL
LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT DPROG/DT OF THESE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DID INDICATE THAT SOME OF THIS
WARMER AIR WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LINGERING IN THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS EAST OF THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS WAS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE LATE DAY
STORMS DEVELOPED.

THE NAM AND GFS HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND TODAY BOTH MODELS LIFT THIS SYSTEM OUT
OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES DEEPENS AND STARTS TO APPROACH THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
CONVECTION CHANCES LATER TODAY APPEAR TO FOCUS ON THIS LEE TROUGH
AND GIVEN THE SUBTLE WAVES STILL ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AM
UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY STORMS IN OR NEAR OUR
FAR WEST/NORTHWEST COUNTIES. LATE DAY INSTABILITY BASED ON NAMS
MUCAPES HOWEVER ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (500-600J/KG) SO AT THIS
TIME HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT DID INSERT SOME
10-14% POPS WEST/NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND
GIVEN THE 850-700MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS IT APPEARS THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 102 TO AROUND 109 STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL
TODAY ALSO...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY AND
GARDEN CITY. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS A
LITTLE MORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS AND EVEN THE BIAS
CORRECT CONMOS THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AS WELL. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED
DEWPOINT THIS AFTERNOON AND TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LATE TODAY STILL APPEARS TO STAY ABOVE
THE 15%. HEAT ADVISORY HOWEVER STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH HEAT INDEXES
IN OUR EAST STILL RANGING FROM AROUND 015 TO 107 DEGREES.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS AS THE WASHINGTON STATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GFS, NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. BY
LATE DAY THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
STATE LINE. THE WARM AIR THAT WAS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 00Z
MON IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES AT
00Z WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
NORTH HOWEVER AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE COOLING THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL.
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TO 100 DEGREES IN THE HAYS AREA
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH JUST YET TO BEGIN
LOWERING MAX TEMPERATURES MUCH NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE HIGHS AS IS WITH ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR ALL OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES HOWEVER IN THE NORTH
WILL END UP BEING A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WHILE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO 105 OR MORE.
THIS WILL BE THE THIRD DAY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105. WITH THIS IN MIND ALONG WITH
ANOTHER HOT DAY ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105 HAVE DECIDED TO WILL GO AHEAD
AND REPLACE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A
EXTREME HEAT WARNING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF
THIS FRONT AT 00Z WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THIS FRONT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND MUCAPES HAVE DECIDED NOT
ONLY TO KEEP THE CURRENT POPS GOING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
BUT ALSO WILL BE EXPANDING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINING ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE A SERIES
OF H5 VORT MAXES CYCLE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THEN
EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FAR NORTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK, THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY INFLUENCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, PARTICULARLY
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HINT AT THE
POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INITIALLY ENTERING
WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY...LINGERING IN THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A RESULT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ACROSS OUR MORE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE 100F IN OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 30C
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
90S(F) NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30KT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 106  75 103  74 /  10  10  20  20
GCK 104  72 101  71 /  10  10  20  30
EHA 102  72 101  71 /  10  10  20  30
LBL 104  74 103  72 /  10  10  20  20
HYS 106  76 100  74 /  10  10  20  30
P28 109  79 110  79 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-079.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ066-080-
081-088>090.

&&

FN18/32/32

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