Heat Advisory 11, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PRAIRIES OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVER MISSOURI.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH STALLED OUT LATE
AFTERNOON DUE TO INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE REACHING 105 TO 107 DEGREES BY MID
AFTERNOON.  WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS WAS PROMOTING SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 22Z...AND MOST LIKELY DURING THE MID EVENING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY FROM JOHNSON NORTHEAST TO GARDEN CITY-SCOTT
CITY NORTHEAST TO WAKEENEY.  WILL BE GOING WITH JUST 20 POPS FOR THE
EVENING WITH EXPECTED SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.  THE
HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN SUSTAINING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK
OF JET STREAK DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AM HESITANT
TO BELIEVE LARGER SCALE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST.  NOW TOMORROW, JET STREAK DYNAMICS WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER WITH MORE OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  WILL
INCREASE POPS TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AREAL EXPANSE OF HOT
AIR WITH THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HEAT CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER
HEAD ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW IN THE AREAS UNDER ONE TODAY SIMPLY
BECAUSE THE HEAT INDICES ARE JUST NOT QUITE REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL
AS DEWPOINT IS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOWER 50S OR IN SOME CASES THE
UPPER 40S.  THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND DO EXPECT HIGHS
OF 107 TO 108 ONCE AGAIN IN AREAS EAST OF THE ONGOING EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.  THE LOW DEWPOINTS AND WINDS (PROVIDING AN ENHANCE
EVAPORATE RATE) 12 TO 15 KNOTS WILL ACTUALLY PROVIDE JUST A LITTLE
BIT OF RELIEF.  FROM HAYS TO PRATT TO MEDICINE LODGE WILL BE KEEPING
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES
AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES) GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.  UP AROUND HAYS,
THOUGH, THE FRONT WILL BE VERY CLOSE BY, IF NOT PERHAPS JUST SOUTH
OF THERE AND MAY KEEP HAYS FROM REACHING HEAT INDEX OF 105 THURSDAY
AND PERHAPS FRIDAY.  THE NEXT SHIFT WILL FURTHER ADDRESS THE NEED
FOR HEADLINES GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

DAYS 3-7...

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MEANDER AROUND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE
FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND SEND SHORTWAVES UP AND
OVER THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. A FEW OF THESE IMPULSES WILL MIGRATE
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THIS
AREA. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE KS/NE
BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLY REACHING OUR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN LOOKS TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYING TO
THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 100S EACH DAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 70S WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE UPPER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE KS/NE BORDER.
A FEW STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE
ENERGY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT IF ANY STORMS FORM OVER THE
HAYS TERMINAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO AROUND
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78 107  78 106 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  76 106  75 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  74 103  74 100 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  77 106  76 102 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  77 105  78 104 /  20  20  30  10
P28  80 108  80 108 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-044-045-063-
064-076>080-086>089.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-
066-081-090.

&&

FN25/42/42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-210900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
351 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2011 /251 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS POSTED EAST OF A HAYS TO SAINT JOHN TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE THROUGH FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EAST OF A LINE FROM
LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO DIGHTON. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE
105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE, MAKING HAZARDOUS FOR ANYONE WORKING
OUTSIDE. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO STAY OUT OF THE SUN FOR LONG PERIODS
OF TIME.

ALSO, THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE BANNED. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR THE RAPID GROWTH OF WILDFIRES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON CITY TO HAYS. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BASICALLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM LA CROSSE TO CIMARRON TO JOHNSON CITY. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT NONE OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE,
HOWEVER STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

KSZ061>063-074>076-084>086-210430-
FINNEY-GRANT-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-MORTON-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-
1044 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT...HAMILTON...HASKELL...
NORTHERN MORTON...SOUTHERN KEARNY...SOUTHWESTERN FINNEY...STANTON...
STEVENS AND WESTERN SEWARD COUNTIES...

AT 1041 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KENDALL TO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MANTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3789 10069 3704 10078 3702 10155 3733 10200
      3824 10188
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 305DEG 39KT 3788 10151 3744 10174

18

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