Fire Weather Watch 38, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS AT 12Z BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. WEST OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND AT 18Z WAS LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE 700MB LEVEL THERE WAS AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. 850MB LEVEL ALSO PLACED
A WEDGE OF HIGHER DEW POINT ALONG AND NORTH A BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR
THIS LOCATION AS WELL.

MODELS THIS MORNING DID A DECENT JOB INITIALIZING WITH THESE
FEATURES AND ALL APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE TRACK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LOCATION AT 18Z. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT IT
WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH-EAST OF THE
850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS A RESULT SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN KANSAS. 12Z NAM, 00Z ECMWF, 4KM WRF, AND HRR ALL SUGGESTS
SOMETHING ALONG THIS LINE ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. STILL WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL
TREND AND THEREFORE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER EAST. ALSO WILL BE KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN NORTH
TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN KANSAS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES WARM BY ONLY A FEW DEGREES. 850 MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAY END
UP BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL YIELD HEAT
INDEXES APPROACHING 105 IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN
THAT HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE NEAR 105 FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS AND
THAT DEWPOINT COULD EASILY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL TO CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER HIGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ALONG WITH A WARM
FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS AM CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS KEEP A
MENTION OF A LEAST ISOLATED STORMS IN THESE AREAS.

FRIDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A HOT DAY WITH 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS
THOSE ON THURSDAY BUT HEAT INDEXES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME BASED
ON LATEST GRIDS THE HEAT INDEX READING SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

DAYS 3-7...

EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE WELL
TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE
(DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S) HOWEVER...WITH OUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR ZERO. THE ONLY CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DURING PEAK HEATING WHERE A FEW TOWERING CUMULUS COULD FORM AND SPIT
OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS OF OVER 100 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST EVERYDAY. AND WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS AROUND HEAT INDEXES
OF OVER 105 DEGREES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ONLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA070 WILL BE PRESENT
DURING PEAK HEATING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  75 104  76 /  30  20  10  10
GCK  98  72 103  72 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  69 101  72 /  20  30  10  10
LBL 100  74 103  75 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  95  74 103  78 /  20  30  10  10
P28 101  77 104  79 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/42/42

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