Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THEN A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEK
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COOLER...DRIER AND MORE AUTUMN-LIKE AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET ACROSS CWA AT 19Z. CONTINUE TO WATCH APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH GLAKES...PUSHING INTO NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING AS
FRONT BEGINS TO GET STRETCHED OUT AS MAIN DYNAMICS PULL
NORTHEASTWARD. NO CONVECTION ALONG FRONT YET...BUT CAPES TO APPCH
1K JOULES IN SPOTS ACROSS THE NRN TIER. LIFTING MECHANISM IS MORE
OF A QUESTION. EXPECT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES IN. THIS PUTS IT WELL AFTER PEAK
HEATING. WITH A SW FLOW AT THE SFC/LLVLS SPELLING ONLY MEAGER MSTR
CONVERGENCE...THOSE HIGHER CAPES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED.
WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF THUNDER OVER THE N...BUT CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT ELSEWHERE. SPC SLIGHT RISK TOUCHES THE NRN TIER. WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEST SHEAR IS TO THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER.

TS/SHRA SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD LEAVE FOG IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHERE RAIN DID FALL. BUT THE LIGHT W WIND
MAY LEAD TO MORE STRATUS THAN FOG. BRIEF SFC RIDGE MOVES IN BUT
THE FRONT MAY GET JUST TO THE S OF THE CWA BY MORNING. MINS AGAIN
IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...AS THE REAL DRY/COOL AIR WILL NOT
ARRIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT WILL MIX OUT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER...KEEPING MENTION OF CHANCE
TSTMS ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER. NEW FRONT ARRIVES WED
NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ONLY REACH
AROUND 70F IN THE NORTH...BUT ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHARP UPPER TROF IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SUPPORT A
SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SFC. THIS SFC HIGH WILL
BRING A LENGTHY PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
WEATHER...FROM THE WEEKEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW IS
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT LATER IN THE PD...SLOWLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT
AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING SCT TSTMS TO MAINLY
KBFD THIS EVENING. AS FRONT LIFTS TO THE NE...MAY SEE AN MVFR STRATOCU
DECK DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE. WE/LL ALSO SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOP...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

MAINLY VFR ON WED...WITH CHANCE OF A TSTM ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER
FROM KJST-KMDT-KLNS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT AM FOG. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR. PM TSRA POSS SOUTH.
THU...AM LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE W MTNS. VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.
FRI-SUN...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX RADAR PARTIALLY OPERATIONAL...BUT STILL IN NEED OF A
PERMANENT FIX. RADAR WILL REMAIN IN VCP31 THROUGH AT LEAST WED
MORNING...WHEN ADDITIONAL PARTS WILL ARRIVE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-140830-
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-140830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
634 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

PAZ004-132315-
WARREN PA-
634 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

AT 626 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SPARTANSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT SPRING CREEK...GARLAND...LOTTSVILLE...
YOUNGSVILLE...RUSSELL AND SCANDIA.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
STATE ROAD 59.

LAT...LON 4201 7892 4183 7892 4183 7894 4181 7895
      4168 7962 4199 7961 4200 7960

FORECASTER: GARTNER/CERU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
737 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

PAZ005-140000-
MCKEAN PA-
737 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCKEAN COUNTY...

AT 730 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES WEST OF BRADFORD...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT BRADFORD...REW AND ELDRED.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD
46...STATE ROAD 446.

LAT...LON 4183 7829 4190 7891 4200 7892 4201 7829

FORECASTER: GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
821 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

PAZ004-140045-
WARREN PA-
821 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...

AT 812 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SPRING CREEK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT SUGAR GROVE AND RUSSELL.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62.

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4199 7892 4176 7942 4191 7953
      4201 7941

FORECASTER: CERU