Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
204 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CANADA WILL ALLOW
FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SW FLOW AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A CLEARING SKY...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THUNDER WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY...DRIER AIR
AND THE REGION SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRIER AND COOLER FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
CYCLONIC MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS TUE-
THU.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
INCREASED POPS AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES...GIVEN 3 AREAS
OF HEAVY CONVECTION.

FLASH FLOODING WARNING OUT FOR 2 COUNTIES...OVER 5 INCHES OF
RAIN REPORTED...STP ON RADAR LOOKS GOOD.

SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF BACKBUILDING STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING WITH STRONG RH'S THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS. LATE TOMORROW MORNING CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER
CAPE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
 VERY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F IN SOUTHERN AREAS WITH
SUNSHINE COULD BE AN UNCOMFORTABLE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE SUMMERTIME HEAT IS
BEHIND US. WILL KEEP EVENING POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING POPS AGAIN MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER WEEK TROFING WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE AREA. REGENERATING SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE IN THE VCTY OF KMDT AND
KLNS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGER
INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 15-16Z.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING IFR TO LIFR TO MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME AIRPORTS SUCH AS KIPT...KBFD AND KAOO
EXPECTED TO FLIRT WITH AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT TIMES PRIOR TO 13Z.

IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY AFTER 13Z...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH VFR BY 15-16Z.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...IFR/LIFR IN AM SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM W-E THROUGH
THE DAY.
MON...AM FOG...OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR. SCT MVFR/IFR IN TSRA PM.
TUE...AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA NW.
WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/CERU
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/CERU
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...JUNG/RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-080245-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1036 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH 100 AM EDT SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

PAZ017-024-025-033-034-070815-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CLEARFIELD PA-SOMERSET PA-
314 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMBRIA...NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET...NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD AND WESTERN
BLAIR COUNTIES...

AT 313 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
CLYMER TO HOOVERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT VINTONDALE...LORAIN...GEISTOWN...AND EAST CONEMAUGH...
VINCO...SOUTH FORK...SCALP LEVEL...AND NANTY-GLO...NORTHERN CAMBRIA
AND SUMMERHILL.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 145...I-99 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 0 AND 34.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE JOHNSTOWN
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...ROUTE
422...STATE ROAD 56.

LAT...LON 4004 7904 4032 7904 4036 7900 4051 7891
      4072 7881 4076 7881 4081 7837 4076 7837
      4076 7838 4074 7837 4005 7837

FORECASTER: MARTIN