Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED HEAT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION ALREADY BEGUN WITH TALLER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER
OVER THE SC MTS AT 1630Z. SOUNDINGS FROM LAPS AND RUC BOTH HAVE
FZL AROUND 14KFT. WITH WEAK TO MOD SHEAR BUT SFC-BASED AND
MUCAPES 200 OR BETTER...EXPECT THE CELLS TO BE PULSERS WITH ONLY
ISOLD WIND DAMAGE IF ANY. SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES. POPS WILL REMAIN
TIED MORE TO AREAL COVERAGE VS PROBABILITY - AND RUN BTWN 30 AND
50S. THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL HELP THE STORMS
WEAKEN AND BECOME EVEN MORE ISOLATED THIS EVENING. CONVECTION
COULD EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT TIME...ESP OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COS. HIGH SFC MOISTURE ENHANCED BY ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MASSIVE MID-LVL ANTICYCLONE
AND ASSOCIATED HEAT WAVE BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ENSEMBLE-BASED HEAT THREATS
PAGE IS CLEARLY POINTING TOWARD A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT HEAT
EVENT WITH STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALIES NOTED IN ALL OF THE KEY
FORECAST FIELDS. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX /HX/ VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY LIKELY REACHING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA WITH HX VALUES
EXCEEDING 104F BOTH THU AND FRI. POSTED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
FOR THU A BIT EARLIER THAN NORMALLY WOULD DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF EVENT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING SOMETIME TOMORROW...AND WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SIG PORTION OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL MTNS TOO. FRI WILL
SEE A REPEAT OF THE HEAT...BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME OUTSIDE
OF MENTION IN HWO AND ZFP.

PEAK HEAT DAYS WILL BE THU INTO FRI...BUT IT WILL REMAIN ALMOST AS
HOT ON SAT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE VERY MILD
AND MUGGY...AS THE HARRISBURG AREA MAY NOT DROP BELOW 80F THU
NIGHT. STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD DIURNAL TSTM DURING THIS
TIME...BUT BY IN LARGE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY BENEATH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH 590+DM RIDGE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SLIP THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT KEPT
POPS MAINLY IN THE SCHC CATG.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HEAT WAVE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
BE SUPPRESSED THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MORE CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WWD AND RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVR THE PLAINS/ROCKIES. SAT-SUN WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM/HOT
BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED FROPA DRIVES COOLER/DRIER AIR SEWD FM THE
GRT LKS BY DY8+. MODEL DIFFS ARE EVIDENT IN THE DEPTH OF THE ERN
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING
THE COLD FNT FARTHER SWD THAN THE ECMWF. A CONSENSUS SOLN IS
RECOMMENDED BY DY7-8+ WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING AS MDL SPREAD
GROWS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTN IN HAZE.
ADDITIONALLY...WIDELY SCT CONVECTION POPPING UP WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY.

ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. PATCHY
FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT...WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE. POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP TO IFR VSBYS...AND
POSSIBLY LOWER IN A FEW PLACES.

ANY FOG WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL REMAIN HAZY.
SUNSHINE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WED-THU.

CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVE CONVECTION INCREASES BY FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
WED...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR.
THU...MAINLY VFR.
FRI...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS LATE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...MVFR POSS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CERU/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...EVANEGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-037-041-042-201945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ019-025>028-045-046-049>053-058-201945-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
SCHUYLKILL-
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ056-057-059-201945-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ033-201945-
SOMERSET-
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ034-035-201945-
BEDFORD-FULTON-
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ036-063>066-201945-
FRANKLIN-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WAVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RXR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

PAZ042-046-051-053-192200-
COLUMBIA PA-MONTOUR PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LYCOMING...NORTH
CENTRAL MONTOUR...SOUTH CENTRAL SULLIVAN AND WEST CENTRAL COLUMBIA
COUNTIES...

AT 523 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PICTURE ROCKS...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PICTURE ROCKS AROUND 530 PM AND
LAIRDSVILLE AROUND 600 PM.

LAT...LON 4104 7650 4113 7674 4117 7674 4117 7683
      4120 7693 4136 7686 4135 7674 4131 7660
      4137 7669 4138 7648

FORECASTER: KF