Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1013 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THEN THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND
CREATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRIER AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WORK IN LATER TODAY...BUT THE
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IS ALREADY INTO THE NW. SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THE W SEEM TO BE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO WRN NY STATE. SPC HAS
STARTED TO MENTION THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE DAY 1
OUTLOOK...AS CAPES IN THE EAST DO RISE ABOVE 1200J/KG AND DAYTIME
HEATING MIXING SHOULD BE GOOD WITH MINOR/SHORT-LIVED CLEAR SLOT
MOVING IN NOW AND WILL BE THERE FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. UNI-
DIR SHEAR TODAY IN THE WEST...BUT LLVL HELICITY COULD BE ENHANCED
BY WEAK ERLY FLOW IN THE EAST. MID LEVEL WINDS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AT 30-40KTS PER LATEST RUC. TOPS COULD GET ABOVE
30KFT AND WBZ AROUND 9-10KFT. ADJ POPS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
JUST SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TO DOMINATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS 5H CLOSED
LOW OVER QUEBEC DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE MON-WED. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THANKS TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
EACH AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL PA THROUGH MID WEEK.

AFTER THAT...RIDGING RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK AS WED/THU WILL SEE A
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES /AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL/...THOUGH GFS/ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY THIS TIME. THE
NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WED NIGHT...WHEN
AN MCS MAY ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS THUR-FRI AS THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WEAKEN
AND SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...ALLOWING A FNTL SYS TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD PRECIP IS POSS UNTIL LATE AM IN THE WRN TAFS...AND SCT
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE E THIS AFTN AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
OTHERWISE VFR OUTSIDE THE TS/SHRA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR.
WED-THU...SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLWS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...BUT WATER-LOGGED GROUND IN THE SE
COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL MINOR/SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTN/EVE...AS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. ANY ADDTNL SIG RAIN MAY PUSH THE
LARGER CREEKS UP AS WELL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/CERU
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...ROSS/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...CERU
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1116 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-037-041-045-131530-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
1116 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

PAZ028-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-131530-
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1116 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

PAZ026-027-121630-
HUNTINGDON PA-MIFFLIN PA-
1149 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MIFFLIN AND NORTHEASTERN
HUNTINGDON COUNTIES...

AT 1147 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WHIPPLE DAM STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MCALEVYS FORT AROUND 1155 AM...BELLEVILLE
AROUND 1210 PM...REEDSVILLE AROUND 1225 PM AND YEAGERTOWN AROUND
1230 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22/522...ROUTE
322.

LAT...LON 4065 7797 4073 7788 4073 7778 4072 7778
      4073 7772 4072 7771 4073 7768 4073 7745
      4052 7764

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1228 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

PAZ033-034-121700-
BEDFORD PA-SOMERSET PA-
1228 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BEDFORD AND NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 1224 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR NEW PARIS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CESSNA AROUND 1240 PM...EVERETT AROUND 1250
PM AND BREEZEWOOD AROUND 100 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 165...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 150...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 14.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
220.

LAT...LON 4007 7906 4024 7872 4024 7866 4028 7865
      4031 7859 4029 7851 4024 7845 4027 7845
      4016 7813 4009 7820 4005 7818 4004 7821
      4001 7820 3983 7829 3972 7838 3972 7843

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
113 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

PAZ028-050-052-056>058-063-121745-
CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-JUNIATA PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-
113 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL JUNIATA...NORTH
CENTRAL CUMBERLAND...NORTHERN DAUPHIN...PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN
SNYDER...SOUTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND AND WEST CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL
COUNTIES...

AT 107 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
RESLER TO BLACKLOG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR REBUCK AROUND 120 PM...LECK KILL
AROUND 130 PM...ROUGH AND READY AROUND 140 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 210 AND 216...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 106 AND 108.

LAT...LON 4037 7775 4042 7771 4083 7676 4061 7640
      4017 7742

FORECASTER: LA CORTE