Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
158 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY
LATER TODAY AND LAST INTO LATE WEEK. NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP INTO THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPANDED SVR TSTM WATCH #410 SWD TO INCLUDE REMAINDER OF S-CNTRL
CNTYS PER COORDINATION WITH SPC. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
WEAKEN FARTHER SOUTH..BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS EXTREME. LATEST
RADAR SHOWS FAST MOVG CELLS DEVELOPING AS FAR SW AS JST VCNTY.
ANOTHER LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEED FOR A FEW HOURS TO COVER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTN IN THE LWR SUSQ VLY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

SVR TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS NRN PA ALONG SFC
TROUGH/CLD FNT PUSHING STEADILY EWD THRU NW PA AND WRN NY. STRONG
INSTABILITY /ML CAPE VALUES BTWN 2000-3000 J/KG/ AND MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON SERN EDGE OF MID-LVL SPEED MAX WILL SUPPORT ADDNL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MID-LVL WNDS SUGGESTS DMG WNDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT...WITH SOME HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS. ENVIRONMENTAL DATA INDICATES RATHER HIGH FZG LEVELS
AROUND 14-15KFT SO WILL LARGE LARGE 50DBZ CORES WELL ABOVE THE -20
TO LKLY VERIFY LARGE HAIL.

A SECOND SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR S-CNTRL PA LATER TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHARP SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE SE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT 1145Z. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL PART
OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
TRIGGERING ONE OR TWO BKN LINES OF TSRA PER THE 09Z HRRR. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SVR...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
WESTERLY DONWBURST GUSTS OVER 55 MPH...AND LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE. STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOME BETTER
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT STRUCTURE/ROTATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
ENCOUNTER INCREASED LLVL SHEAR ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE LEE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. 06Z NAM /WHICH MAY BE A
FEW HOURS TOO SLOW WITH THE CFROPA/ SHOWS 0-1KM EHI IN THIS AREA
INCREASING TO 2-3 M2/S2 FOR A BRIEF FEW HOUR PERIOD AFTER 21Z. IN
CONTRAST...HRRR INDICATES THAT MOST OR ALL OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR SE OF A KLNS TO KTHV LINE BY 20Z.

THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE ERN COS...ESP THE POCONOS AND SE/LOWER
SUSQ. COVERAGE LOOKS SCT AND WILL KEEP MOST POPS 30-50PCT. ERN COS
WILL GET A 60 POP. TIMING WILL BE RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH
MOST CONVECTION BEING PRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
NIGHTFALL. BY 6 PM...THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE INTO THE 40S OVER THE
NWRN THIRD OF THE AREA.

SEVERE WORRIES CONTINUE WITH SUCH LARGE CAPES AND MID LEVEL WINDS
OF 45-55KTS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE...BUT LARGE HAIL IS A THREAT AS WELL WITH BIG MID
LEVEL CAPES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH LEAD TO FASTER UPDRAFTS IN
THE FROZEN AIR. WILL AGAIN MENTION HAIL/GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE EAST TODAY. MAY NEED TO CRANK THE WORDING UP TO
SEVERE WORDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH BEFORE 00Z. THE DRY/DENSE
AIR DESCENDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...DROPPING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 40S ALMOST EVERYWHERE. EXCEPT PERHAPS THE AREAS THAT GOT RAIN
DURING THE DAY. WINDS STAY UP...SO DENSE FOG IS NOT A BIG WORRY.

INTERESTING WX PROBLEMS THEN ARISE ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NW WILL SCRUB
AGAINST THE LOW DROPPING SE OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RAISE THE WINDS AND MAKE GUSTS WELL OVER 20KTS. THE DRY AIR
WILL HELP DIP RH/S BELOW 40 PCT AND FUELS WILL BE DRY DESPITE
SPOTTY RAIN TODAY/WED. THIS COULD MAKE FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE WITH THE FIRE
MANAGERS TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A WATCH OR WARNING FOR THURS.

THAT SFC HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO DROP. EVEN THOUGH IT SOUNDS TOUGH TO BELIEVE AFTER
DAYS OF 80S AND 90S - AND A RECORD HIGH AT KIPT ON TUES...THE NRN
TIER MAY BE LOOKING AT A FROST FRI AM. THESE MIN TEMPS ARE A DROP
OF 5-10F FROM PREV FCSTS...QUITE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. BUT THE
SREF GUID POINTS TO A CLEAR...CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
VERY LOW PWATS. MOS ALSO CATCHING ON...WITH GUID FOR KBFD 31 AND
34 FROM THE MAV AND MET. SINCE THIS IS A 4TH PD THING...WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDER A REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SLIGHTLY COOL AND LESS HUMID DAY. TEMPS AGAIN BEGIN TO
CREEP UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. PSUEDO WARM
FRONT SLIDES IN ON SATURDAY...PUSHING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 80S AND
AGAIN NUDGING HUMIDITY UP AREA-WIDE...BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN
LIMITED TO ISOLATED MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COOL FRONT AGAIN FLATTENS THE RIDGE
SUN/MON...TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPS A BIT AGAIN...THOUGH THEY
WILL STILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MORNING FOG AND HAZE HAS LIFTED...AS VSBYS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR
LEVELS AT ALL AIRFIELDS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG A COLD FRONT. A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS EMERGED PRIOR TO THE 18Z ISSUANCE AND HAS ALREADY
CLEARED THROUGH BFD. THESE STORMS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT STORMS WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE AREA PRIOR TO 00Z.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE SEVERE.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BR/HZ WILL DECREASE...AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DROP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU...LEADING TO MAINLY DRY AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN NEXT LATE FRI INTO SAT...AS LARGE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/RXR
AVIATION...LAMBERT/KOZAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
105 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-058-
021715-
NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-
BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-SCHUYLKILL-
105 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-021715-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-TIOGA-
105 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A FROST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057-059-063>066-021715-
DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
105 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID HEAT RELATED STRESS AND
EFFECTS OF POOR AIR QUALITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ056-057-059-063-011815-
CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-LEBANON PA-PERRY PA-
133 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL PERRY...
NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN DAUPHIN AND SOUTHWESTERN LEBANON
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MARYSVILLE...MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ROCKVILLE AROUND 140
PM...COLONIAL PARK AROUND 150 PM...PALMYRA AROUND 200 PM...ANNVILLE
AROUND 210 PM AND LEBANON AROUND 220 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 255 AND 263...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 57 AND 82...I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 50...I-283.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE
22...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 422.

LAT...LON 4022 7649 4020 7656 4027 7704 4030 7705
      4034 7709 4040 7701 4039 7639

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ034>036-011830-
BEDFORD PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
156 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD...SOUTHERN
FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 154 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR INGLESMITH...MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR
BARNES GAP AROUND 200 PM...LOCUST GROVE AROUND 205 PM...COVE MILLS
AROUND 210 PM AND CLAYLICK AROUND 220 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 170.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
522.

LAT...LON 3976 7852 3988 7852 3994 7788 3972 7789
      3971 7819

FORECASTER: GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ053-058-011830-
COLUMBIA PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
201 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COLUMBIA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SHUMANS...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR NUREMBURG AROUND 210 PM AND
MCADOO AROUND 220 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 236 AND 247...I-81 NEAR MILE MARKER 139.

LAT...LON 4086 7638 4095 7645 4103 7643 4106 7622
      4095 7620 4091 7605 4091 7599 4090 7598

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ058-059-011900-
LEBANON PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
212 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEBANON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES THROUGH 3 PM EDT...

AT 210 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FORT INDIANTOWN GAP...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LICKDALE AROUND 220 PM...FREDERICKSBURG
AROUND 230 PM...SUMMIT STATION AROUND 250 PM AND PORT CLINTON AROUND
300 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-78 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND
101.

LAT...LON 4057 7601 4058 7605 4051 7625 4051 7634
      4049 7643 4037 7624 4037 7625 4039 7664
      4040 7665 4048 7668 4053 7659 4062 7600

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ058-011915-
SCHUYLKILL PA-
231 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SCHUYLKILL COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 227 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
MCADOO TO FRACKVILLE TO MUIR...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DIME TO PENNY SIZE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR
TUSCARORA AROUND 240 PM...TAMAQUA AROUND 250 PM AND SNYDERS AROUND
300 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 104 AND 139.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 209...STATE
ROAD 61...STATE ROAD 309.

LAT...LON 4069 7583 4067 7594 4055 7653 4057 7657
      4092 7607 4091 7599 4081 7588 4074 7576

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
244 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

PAZ057-059-066-011930-
DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
244 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DAUPHIN...
NORTHEASTERN LANCASTER AND SOUTHERN LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...

AT 238 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED FROM MYERSTOWN TO PALMYRA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DIME TO PENNY SIZE
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR MOUNT
GRETNA AROUND 250 PM...CORNWALL AROUND 300 PM...KLEINFELTERSVILLE
AROUND 310 PM AND REAMSTOWN AROUND 320 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 265 AND 290...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 77 AND 79.

LAT...LON 4020 7603 4020 7630 4025 7659 4036 7673
      4041 7655 4042 7631 4037 7623 4037 7621
      4021 7598

FORECASTER: LAMBERT