Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1031 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...AFFORDING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ASSOC WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS OVERSPREAD THE NW
MTNS LATE THIS EVENING. MDL SIMULATED RADAR DATA WOULD SUGGEST
THAT POTENTIAL OF SVR WX WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ARND 05Z-06Z. AFTER
06Z...COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD RESULT IN DWINDLING
INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. FOCUS FOR ANY REMAINING
-SHRA/-TSRA LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA...ALONG
AXIS OF LL JET AND MAX PWAT AXIS.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS BTWN 60-65F FOR THE MOST PART...SOME 10-15
DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE/CONVECTIVE WEATHER APPEARS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SREF SEVERE THREAT
PAGE SHOWS BEST CAPE HUGGING THE SRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH REASONABLY MATCHES WHERE SPC HAS PLACED
THERE SLIGHT RISK. WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SCOOTING A WELL DEFINED
JET STREAK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...INGREDIENTS
LOOK PROMISING FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE STEAMY MID 80S IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPRESS THE WEAK
UPR RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REBUILD NORTH THROUGH PA ON WED AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC SHOULD MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WED...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST AN MCS
EXITING PA 00Z- 06Z WED...WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE KEPT. WHERE THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW GOES AND HOW QUICKLY IT GETS THERE WILL BE A BIG
FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW WET AND STORMY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND TURN OUT. TODAYS LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT BRINGING A WEAK TROF INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
ALSO SHOW A SECOND UPPER TROF/LOW UPSTREAM OF THE FIRST...WHICH
WOULD SERVE TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN THE LEAD SYSTEM. THUS EXPECT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE STALLED NEAR OR TO THE WEST OF PA THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THE WET PATTERN...WHERE EVEN THE DRY DAYS
END UP WITH SHOWERS FORMING...KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TAF PACKAGE SENT.

LINE OF STORMS EAST OF THE AREA NOW...WENT WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS BFD...WHERE STORMS OVER
LAKE ERIE MAY HOLD TOGETHER.

WILL ADJUST PACKAGE AS NEEDED THIS EVENING.

STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUE. WHILE NOT MUCH MAY DEVELOP ON TUE AND WED...MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...AS ENERGY
LIFTS NE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE PLAINS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
VFR/MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER WED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN/KOZAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
947 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042-241515-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
947 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...SOME OF WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
NEW YORK BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...MORE STRONG
STORMS COULD OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK...MAINLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PAZ036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-241515-
FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
947 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

PAZ019-024>028-033>035-241515-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-
947 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...SOME OF WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
ROUTE 219.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

PAZ004-240315-
WARREN PA-
1024 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY...

AT 1022 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
CORRY TO SPARTANSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE NEAR SPRING CREEK AROUND 1030 PM...BEAR LAKE AROUND 1040
PM...YOUNGSVILLE AROUND 1050 PM...WARREN AROUND 1100 PM AND KINZUA
DAM AROUND 1110 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
STATE ROAD 59.

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4184 7891 4183 7892 4172 7962
      4200 7961

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

PAZ004-240345-
WARREN PA-
1101 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY AT 1055 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE GENERALLY
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
STATE ROAD 59.

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4184 7891 4183 7892 4183 7894
      4182 7895 4182 7955 4200 7956

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1204 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/23/2011  M0.75 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100109

GAD

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