Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

March 23, 2011Fulton County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Mar 23, 2011, 6:13 PM EDT for Fulton County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 23, 2011, 6:13 PM EDT (22:13 UTC)
Expired: Mar 23, 2011, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA

County Fulton County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 0 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 304 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 428 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 23, 3:32 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 23, 3:32 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
332 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM SYSTEM STILL NEEDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
MORE SHOWERS AND SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL STRENGTHEN...WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL TROUGH AND COLDER PATTERN. A LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE 850 HPA LOW IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA. A SURGE OF
WARM AIR HAS PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE 60S IN SW PA. SOME OF THIS WARM
AIR COULD GET INTO CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES BEFORE 5 PM. A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND TRIED TO HAVE
FORECAST SHOW THIS FEATURE. IT WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR EAST BEFORE 4
PM.

MORE PRECIPITATION IN ORGANIZING IN OHIO. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE
PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM. SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING. TO THE NORTH AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING OVER WARREN
AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BE SNOW FROM
WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES TO SULLIVAN COUNTY. THERE COULD BE
THUNDER-SNOW IN A FEW AREAS THESE EVENING. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE 850 HPA LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TONIGHT
AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE 850 HPA LOW. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TOO.

CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SLIDING TO THE EAST. SOME RESIDUAL SNSH IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE COOL FOR LATE MARCH AND A BIT BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS GEFS
BRINGS A FAST MOVING COLD EVENT. IF THIS MATERIALIZES COULD SEE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS MOST LIKELY IN THE SAT NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. LATEST 12Z ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THEN PREVIOUS RUN BUT
STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA NORTH OF THE PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
GOING WITH POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN CLIMO. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOONS TAFS REFLECT THE MORE INSTABILITY LIKE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION VCTS IN
KUNV FOR FIRST BATCH MOVING THROUGH AT 1730 TO 1930 UTC. PUT CB IN
CLOUDS FOR KJST AND KAOO. SECOND BATCH IS ORGANIZING OVER OH.
THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PA.

TRIED TO SHOW THE LOW COMING BY AND BATCH OF RAIN WITH IT
OVERNIGHT CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS FROM KJST TO KIPT.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITY
INCREASES. SHOULD BE VFR EVERYWHERE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COMING WEEKEND HAS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA
WHICH COULD BRING IN MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
FRI-MON...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW...IMPROVING MONDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/ROSS
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...GRUMM

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 23, 5:33 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 23, 3:53 PM EDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

PAZ033-034-232045-
BEDFORD PA-SOMERSET PA-
353 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SOMERSET AND WESTERN
BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES WEST OF
MARKLEYSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CASSELMAN AROUND 400 PM...ROCKWOOD AROUND 415
PM...SCHELLSBURG AROUND 430 PM AND CESSNA AROUND 445 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 151...I-99 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 0 AND 11.

LAT...LON 3973 7941 3982 7937 3985 7942 3987 7942
      3994 7937 4025 7848 3983 7839 3971 7927
      3971 7939

FORECASTER: GRUMM

Local storm report, Mar 23, 4:57 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 23, 5:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 23, 5:25 PM EDT, 48 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 23, 6:13 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 23, 3:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Bedford, Somerset	52 min
Mar 23, 4:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Bedford, Somerset	29 min
Mar 23, 5:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Blair	29 min
Mar 23, 5:09 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	Cambria, Somerset	36 min
Mar 23, 5:25 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	35 min
Mar 23, 5:29 PM EDT	Winter Weather Advisory	CTP	Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, Lycoming and 5 more	4 hr
Mar 23, 5:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cumberland, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry	39 min
Mar 23, 5:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Bedford, Cambria, Somerset	31 min
Mar 23, 6:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Somerset	26 min
Mar 23, 6:31 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Blair, Cambria	3 hr
Mar 23, 6:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland	36 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.