Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS State College, PA

337 
WWUS51 KCTP 150039
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

PAC083-123-150045-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-111115T0045Z/
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
739 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EST
FOR SOUTHERN WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 731 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELDRED TO MOUNT JEWETT...MOVING
EAST AT 65 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NORWICH AROUND 745 PM EST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
WARREN COUNTY! SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY 
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7841 4200 7821 4162 7822 4163 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 268DEG 56KT 4210 7796 4169 7853

$$

FORECASTER: KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AROUND
OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARYLAND BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ROLL ALONG THE FRONT BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO
NORMALS LATER THIS WEEK AS A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOW TRACKING NE OVR LK ERIE THIS EVENING. LL JET TRANSPORTING
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO NW PA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
ROUND OF TSRA LATER THIS EVENING AS TRAILING COLD FRONT ARRIVES
OVR THE NW MTNS. MDL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES LINE OF TSRA
WILL ARRIVE OVR WARREN COUNTY ARND 00Z. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...TO PRODUCE A SVR WX
POTENTIAL THRU ARND MIDNIGHT. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL HOLD ONTO MENTIONS
OF THUNDER FOR THE EARLY NIGHTTIME IN THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DEEP-ER CONVECTION. EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE
SHORT...BUT SVR WINDS NOT MORE THAN 3KFT OFF THE DECK EARLY
TONIGHT. DRY IS THE WORD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PD IN THE
SOUTH...AND MOISTURE AND FORCING BOTH DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT DIPS THROUGH THE AREA. SFC WINDS GO LIGHT AND AMBIENT
MOISTURE COULD CREATE PATCHY FOG BUT NOT BAD/WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. FRONT LOSES GOOD/VISIBLE WIND SHIFT AND
LITTLE P-GRAD FOUND LATER TONIGHT AND TUES AM. THUS...IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHER CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TUES...BUT WILL BEND TOWARD THE SREF MEAN PRECIP FIELDS AND PAINT
HIGHEST NUMBERS IN THE LAURELS WHERE UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP SQUEEZE
SOME MOISTURE OUT...BUT DOWNSLOPE AND MORE-DISTANCE FROM THE
WEAK MOISTURE FEED WILL MAKE IT A TOUGH FCST FOR PRECIP /NO OR
YES/ IN THE LOWER SUSQ. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS IN FOR THE DAYTIME BUT
EXPECT QPF TO BE LOW LIKE TODAY/MONDAY HAS BEEN IN THE N. LOTS OF
RADAR ECHOES LIKELY...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMS. MEAGER POS CAPES
LATER TONIGHT AND TUES...BUT STABILITY INCREASES RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTS THRU ALL OF TUES. MAXES ON TUES WILL BE
MILD AGAIN...BUT NOT AS TOASTY AS TODAY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THICKEST. ALMOST UNIFORM 55-60F MAXES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE ARE STILL 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START WET WITH RAINS ALONG THE FRONT THEN
TURN DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO
ABOUT 1 SD BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ACROSS NW AND NORTH
CENTRAL PENN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY LEADING TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

850 HPA TEMPS ARE -6C BY WED NIGHT AND FALL FARTHER TO -8C...WITH A
TROUGH OF VERY COLD 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -20C SLIDING ACROSS NRN PENN
ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT...THE WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP...PUSHING THE WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE 20S...AND INTO
THE TEENS LATE THURSDAY AND THUR NIGHT.

SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IMPLIES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERENNIAL SNOWBELT
NEAR...AND TO THE WEST OF KBFD...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.

FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THAT PESKY RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE FRONT.

THE PW VALUES DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE WED AND STAY NORMAL
OR BELOW NORMAL FROM THU-SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE UNSEASONABLY
DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR ALL OF THE REGION
DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US LATER THIS WEEK...THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE SHOULD PUSH WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.
THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE 1SD ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE STATE...AND AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TAFS UPDATED AT 21Z FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. FOR THE TIME BEING...
CONVECTION N OF PA. WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE RADAR ETC.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

STABILITY MAY DIP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLD TSRA LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST...BUT WILL ONLY KEEP A MENTION OF
CB IN THOSE TAFS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER AT ANY POINT
ALMOST NIL. PER LATEST MESO MDLS AND RADAR TRENDS...THE CURR AREA
OF SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT OUT BY 22Z...AND A BREAK MAY OCCUR BEFORE A
LINE OF STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT VCTY OF LK ERIE. STRONG
WINDS OF 40-50KT JUST 2-3KT ALOFT WILL MAKE LLWS AND MECH
TURBULENCE THE GREATEST THREATS TO AVIATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT THESE WINDS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN IF ANY CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP AND GET DEEP ENOUGH. THE LINE OF STORMS WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE ON THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES SOUTHWARD. VFR TO MVFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART WITH POST-FNTL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BFD
AFT 06Z...THEN KJST AFTER 09Z. LINGERING RAIN ON TUESDAY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP THE CIGS AND VSBY IN MVFR FOR MOST SITES. KBFD MIGHT
BE THE NICEST LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS TUES AND THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO SLACK OFF TO ONLY 30KT OR SO AT 2KFT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS FOR ALL SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
VALID PD THOUGH.

OUTLOOK...
TUES NIGHT-WED...MVFR TO IFR IN PDS OF RAIN...ESP SOUTH.
THU...MVFR TO IFR CIGS WEST WITH -SHSN. VFR TO MVFR EAST.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD/MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-150915-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
414 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
631 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

PAZ004-005-150000-
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
631 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD AREA...

AT 630 PM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF FREWSBURG TO 23 MILES WEST OF HYDETOWN...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL REACH WARREN AROUND 7 PM.

LAT...LON 4200 7851 4162 7946 4163 7962 4191 7962
      4201 7938

FORECASTER: KF