Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS State College, PA

539 
WWUS51 KCTP 250755
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

PAC023-027-033-035-047-081-250815-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0227.000000T0000Z-110825T0815Z/
CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-CENTRE PA-LYCOMING PA-CLINTON PA-
355 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM EDT
FOR WESTERN CLINTON...WEST CENTRAL LYCOMING...WESTERN CENTRE...
SOUTHEASTERN ELK...CLEARFIELD AND SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 349 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF TAMARACK TO
8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROUTVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
TAMARACK AND KETTLE CREEK STATE PARK AROUND 405 AM EDT...
KEATING AND WOODLAND AROUND 410 AM EDT...
WESTPORT AND RENOVO AROUND 415 AM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 7805 4149 7715 4074 7822 4079 7875
      4083 7882 4118 7879 4152 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 271DEG 47KT 4154 7777 4095 7878

$$

FORECASTER:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
233 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE KEYSTONE STATE TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND COULD
IMPACT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM FOR
THE N/W MTNS. IMPRESSIVE LINE OF TSTMS WORKING SEWD FROM LAKE ERIE
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AXIS OF MOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG WSWLY
LLJ. VERY STRONG FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN THE MORE INTENSE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER S/E INTO THE ALLEGHENY
FOOTHILLS GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY. COSPA/HI RES MDL DATA SUPPORTS
THIS FCST TREND AS PCPN ENTERS THE CNTRL MTNS AROUND 09-10Z. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING FOR NOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA...BUT NOT TOO FAR
UPSTREAM IT HAS BECOME ACTIVE AS A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
GLAKS IS IGNITING A LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. TIMING OF
DETERMINISTIC MESO MODELS BRINGS THIS INTO MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AFTER 06Z IN THE NW...WITH POSS OF
ISOLD STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. ALONG A
KAOO-KIPT LINE PRECIP CHANCES DON/T SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE UNTIL
AFTER 06Z AS THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TRACK EASTWARD...THOUGH
THESE SHOULD BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS THEY ENTER THE CENTRAL MTNS.
THE LOWER SUSQ WILL NOT SEE CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

AFTER BREEZY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...A MILDER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/ERN GRT LKS TO A NY TO VA LINE BY 00Z FRI...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS LEADING JET MAX/DYNAMICS ALOFT EJECT NEWD INTO SERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...SWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE
FLUX/RIBBON OF 1.5-2.0 INCH PWATS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE DURING THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND SPC
NOW HAS AN AREA OF SLIGHT RISK SVR TSTMS FROM NEAR THE EASTERN
EDGE OF OUR CWA...EASTWARD. A FAVORABLY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRECEDING FRONTAL LIFT/WAA SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
TO NMRS TSTMS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS MARGINAL
GIVEN MODEST SHEAR AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ACRS THE LWR SUSQ VLY GIVEN
JUXTAPOSITION OF BEST INSTABILITY/HEATING AND LLVL MSTR /SFC
DEWPTS 65-70F/. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RNFL GIVEN HI PWATS AND 30-40KT LLJ...BUT THIS MAY COUNTERED
TO SOME DEGREE BY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FROPA. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE OVR SERN PA AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOCAL RNFL MAX
DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
THEREFORE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR FLOOD/FF THREAT GIVEN WET
ANTECEDENT CONDS AND LOWER FFG VALUES. USED A GENERAL COMPROMISE
FOR QPF GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH A TILT TOWARD THE 00Z
ECMWF.

STARTING THU NIGHT...EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACRS
THE KEYSTONE STATE WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE ERN
LKS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO HURRICANE IRENE OVER THE WEEKEND.

ANYWAY...WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS THE AIRMASS JUST TO
THE WEST IS QUITE HOT AHD HUMID THIS AFT...AND WITH MODERATE
DYNAMICS MOVING ON THU...CONCERN IS THAT SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER
THAN THE CURRENT MODELS HAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TENDENCY OF THE MODELS IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH THE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SYSTEM IS
MOVING FAST ENOUGH NOW...THAT LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL
BE LEFT AFTER SUNDAY EVENING.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE HIGHER POPS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST.

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THAT IS SOME HINT IN THE MODEL DATA OF A PRE
RNFL EVENT PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR NORTH/WEST AS SE PA BY SAT
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF TROPICAL RNFL SEEMINGLY FROM
SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MORE
EASTERLY...MAINLY OFFSHORE TRACK BEFORE MDL DIFFS ARISE ON
POTENTIAL LANDFALL SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT RNFL
GRADIENT ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
HURRICANE IRENE AT THESE RANGES...IT LOOKS LIKE PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WRN PA COULD MAKE IT THROUGH THIS SYSTEM
LARGELY UNSCATHED.

IRENE IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO A LG SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE AND REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF IRENE SHOULD AFFORD A SEASONABLY WARM
AND MAINLY DRY START NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT MOST OF MONDAY INTO WED TO BE DRY...WITH TEMPS TYPICAL OF
LATE AUG.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY...PRODUCING GUSTY TSRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT BFD BTWN 06Z-08Z. THE APPROACHING LINE OF TSRA SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS LATER THIS
MORNING...DUE TO BOUNDARY LYR COOLING/STABILIZING. HOWEVER...DIURNAL
HEATING COULD CAUSE GUSTY TSRA TO REDEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT THIS
AFTN ACROSS EASTERN PA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA COULD ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE BTWN 11Z-18Z ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS. HOWEVER...IMPROVING CONDS BY AFTN EXPECTED...AS DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

CLEARING SKIES AND LGT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. SUCH CONDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESP
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MOS INDICATES IFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...EARLY FOG W MTNS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT...SCT AFTN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE SE PA. HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE SE PA SAT NITE.
SUN...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE SE PA.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1248 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-260500-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1248 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND MAY PRODUCE
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS OVER EASTERN AREAS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-037-260500-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-TIOGA-
1248 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 806 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND MAY PRODUCE
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS OVER EASTERN AREAS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

HURRICANE IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

PAZ004-250515-
WARREN PA-
1241 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTY...

AT 1242 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 7
MILES NORTH OF FREWSBURG TO 13 MILES WEST OF ELGIN...MOVING EAST AT
60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT COLUMBUS...SUGAR GROVE...RUSSELL AND
YOUNGSVILLE.

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4193 7892 4169 7961 4170 7962
      4200 7961

FORECASTER:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
155 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WARREN                  41.84N  79.14W
08/25/2011                   WARREN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE LARGE LIMB AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100383

STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

PAZ004>006-010-250630-
ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-WARREN PA-
159 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MCKEAN...NORTH CENTRAL
ELK...NORTHWESTERN POTTER AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 154 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHBURG TO MARSHBURG TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HYDETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SHEFFIELD...SHINGLEHOUSE AND PORT ALLEGANY.

LAT...LON 4200 7772 4168 7819 4154 7896 4162 7897
      4163 7962 4184 7961 4196 7912 4201 7899

FORECASTER:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-250715-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-TIOGA PA-WARREN PA-
230 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ELK...
NORTHERN POTTER...NORTHWESTERN CAMERON...NORTHWESTERN TIOGA...
SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 226 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
STANNARDS TO CYCLONE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TIDIOUTE...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT OSWAYO...JAMES
CITY...ULYSSES...DENTON HILL STATE PARK AND LYMAN RUN STATE PARK.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 15...
ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD 46...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 66...STATE
ROAD 446...STATE ROAD 449.

LAT...LON 4173 7759 4157 7842 4160 7896 4162 7897
      4163 7948 4180 7865 4201 7821 4200 7701

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
252 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

PAZ010-011-250715-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-
252 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELK AND WEST CENTRAL
CAMERON COUNTIES...

AT 243 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM JAMES
CITY TO KNOX...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT WILCOX...RIDGWAY AND ST. MARYS.

LAT...LON 4143 7907 4146 7906 4145 7897 4155 7896
      4160 7887 4156 7814 4155 7814 4125 7874
      4137 7897 4135 7902 4134 7910 4142 7910

FORECASTER: