Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS State College, PA

277 
WWUS51 KCTP 092127
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

PAC041-133-092200-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-110609T2200Z/
CUMBERLAND PA-YORK PA-
527 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN YORK AND EASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR DILLSBURG...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MECHANICSBURG...MOVING EAST 
AT 30 MPH. A SECOND STORM WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST 
STORM...LOCATED WEST OF MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS AND ALSO MOVING TO THE 
EAST AT 30 MPH. BOTH THESE STROMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND 
DAMAGE. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIDDONSBURG...
WELLSVILLE...
LOWER ALLEN...
LEWISBERRY...
VALLEY GREEN...
YORK HAVEN...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 229 AND 245...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 46 AND 50...I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 26 AND 41.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS OR EVEN BELOW GROUND LEVEL.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 7701 4002 7703 4003 7707 4006 7710
      4007 7714 4003 7719 4004 7730 4014 7731
      4023 7714 4024 7687 4010 7670 3997 7683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 273DEG 24KT 4012 7706

$$

FORECASTER: DANGELO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
503 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE MASON
DIXON LINE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATE TO CANCEL THE NW PORTION OF SVR TSTM WATCH #451. RECENT
RADAR TRENDS ARE DEPICTING MORE ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPING FM THE
SCNTRL MTNS ENEWD INTO THE MID-LWR SUSQ VLY. EXPECT THE MAIN SVR
WX THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #451 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z AND
INCLUDES ALL CENTRAL PA COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR WARREN. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SEWD ACRS THE NW MTNS WITH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND FUTURE STORM INITIATION EXPECTED MAINLY SE OF
DUJ-ELM LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD OVER THE CNTRL
MTNS AND MID-LWR SUSQ VLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.
SPC 1630Z MODERATE RISK OUTLOOK IS WELL-PLACED COVERING THE CNTRL
2/3RDS OF MY CWA. VERY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF A VERY MOIST
/65-70 DEWPOINT/ AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S HAS RESULTED IN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY. AS STORMS APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING INTO LINE
SEGMENTS...DMGG WNDS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY HIGH
ENVIRONMENTAL FGZ LEVELS AROUND 15KFT. AWIPS HAIL ALGORITHMS
SUGGEST 50DBZ CORES WILL NEED TO EXCEED OVER 35KFT FOR QUARTER
SIZE/1 INCH SVR HAIL. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD INTO
TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE BEST SHEAR. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAKER FLOW SUGGESTS A MORE ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE PA
TURNPIKE.

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTL 00Z FOR THE LWR SUSQ VLY
CNTYS. CURRENT HX VALUES ARE GENERALLY BTWN 98-102F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT PUSH S OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING...BUT FLOW ALOFT GOES NEARLY ZONAL WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY TO BECOME QSTNRY. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL PIVOT AND
BEGIN TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM FNT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WK FNTL WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES ENE
FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE SRN GRT LKS. COOL/STABLE AIR WILL
RESIDE N OF THE WARM FNT OVR THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA TOMORROW WITH
THE BEST CHC OF A SHOWER TO TSTM ACRS SW AND SCNTRL MTNS IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FNT WILL PUSH CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AS SWLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF COLD FNT TRAILING
BEHIND ERN GRT LKS LOW PRES. SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. SPC DY3 SLGT RISK
OUTLOOKS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL SVR WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING GUSTS. RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW
INVOF THE RETREATING/PSEUDO WARM FRONT ALSO WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS/SRH AND STORM-RELATIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS
IN THAT AREA. AS SUCH...ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
FARTHER SW IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MULTICELL BANDS/CLUSTERS
POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REFINE POPS TO COINCIDE WITH
THE MAIN THREAT AREAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MUCH DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR DIRECTED INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A GUSTY NLY WND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOL AND MAINLY DRY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES. UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE TUE/WED ACCOMPANIED BY
HOT/HUMID CONDS. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTL LATE
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND FNTL SYS APPROACHES
FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR HZ FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
THE 18Z ISSUANCE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY THE WARM AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
TSTMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AS
OF 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 03Z.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR BR AND HZ IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ISOLATED CASES OF LIFR CEILINGS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z. HAZE WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS THIS AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR NW / VFR SE. TSTMS LIKELY...REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS.
FRI-SUN...PRIMARILY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL/KREKELER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/KREKELER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/KREKELER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/KOZAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
459 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

PAZ012-018-019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-058-
102100-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-SCHUYLKILL-
459 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ057-059-063>066-102100-
DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
459 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-037-102100-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-TIOGA-
459 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
412 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

PAZ025-026-033-092045-
BLAIR PA-HUNTINGDON PA-SOMERSET PA-
412 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BLAIR...NORTHERN
HUNTINGDON AND NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 404 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
TIPTON TO BLUE KNOB STATE PARK TO DUNBAR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR HOLLIDAYSBURG AROUND 420 PM...FRANKLINVILLE
AROUND 430 PM...PETERSBURG AROUND 440 PM AND MCALEVYS FORT AROUND 450
PM.

LAT...LON 3993 7938 4009 7926 4013 7918 4029 7906
      4027 7890 4025 7889 4024 7868 4066 7822
      4068 7772 4031 7852 4030 7855 4022 7872
      3993 7933

FORECASTER:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
419 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

PAZ051>053-092100-
COLUMBIA PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-
419 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COLUMBIA...CENTRAL
NORTHUMBERLAND AND SOUTHERN MONTOUR COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MOORESBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MECHANICSVILLE AROUND 430 PM...
BLOOMSBURG AROUND 440 PM...MAINVILLE AROUND 450 PM AND SHUMANS AROUND
500 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 218 AND 247.

LAT...LON 4089 7627 4086 7629 4091 7679 4106 7673
      4109 7622 4103 7622 4098 7620 4095 7621

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
441 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

PAZ063-092115-
CUMBERLAND PA-
441 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 436 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR NEWBURG...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WALNUT BOTTOM AROUND 450 PM...PINE
GROVE FURNACE AROUND 500 PM...MOUNT HOLLY SPRING AROUND 510 PM AND
BOILING SPRINGS AROUND 520 PM.

LAT...LON 4006 7753 4009 7754 4010 7756 4019 7754
      4020 7704 4012 7707 4003 7719 4003 7721
      4002 7725

FORECASTER:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

PAZ041-045-046-092115-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
444 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CLINTON
AND SOUTHERN LYCOMING COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
WATERVILLE TO MCELHATTAN TO DUNNSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SALLADASBURG
AROUND 450 PM...JERSEY SHORE AROUND 455 PM...COGAN STATION AROUND
505 PM AND DUBOISTOWN AROUND 515 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 20 AND 29.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
220...STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4134 7683 4110 7700 4107 7712 4113 7746
      4117 7744 4122 7732 4122 7734 4126 7741
      4137 7737

FORECASTER: GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

PAZ033-034-092115-
BEDFORD PA-SOMERSET PA-
445 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BEDFORD AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 436 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
WINDBER TO OHIOPYLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR OSTERBURG AROUND 500 PM...NEW ENTERPRISE
AROUND 510 PM AND MANNS CHOICE AROUND 520 PM.

LAT...LON 3983 7939 3985 7942 3990 7941 3993 7938
      4023 7871 4016 7814 4013 7816 3978 7897

FORECASTER:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             JERSEY SHORE            41.20N  77.27W
06/09/2011  E0.88 INCH       LYCOMING           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100235

EVANEGO