Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
754 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN SPINE
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SPC SVR WATCH #397 IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR MY 3 NORTHWEST
COUNTIES (WARREN...MCKEAN AND ELK. UPSTREAM PROPOGATION OF MATURE
MCS HEADING INTO WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE A RUN AT MY NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. HIGH RESOLUTION MESO MODELS DO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ROCHESTER SOUTHWESTWARD TO
ERIE AND CLEVELAND...AND UP TO THE MINUTE RADAR SCANS INDICATE
SOME TOWERS RISING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW REACHING INTO WESTERN
WARREN COUNTY. CAPE IS SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY TO STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS.

A GENERAL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE N-CNTRL
MTNS BY 06Z WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVR THE NE SXNS
OF THE CWA AS THE SYS DECAYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY AND WILL LKLY NOT GET MUCH
BELOW 70F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VLY METRO AREAS. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND NEARLY CALM SFC WINDS SUGGEST FOG/HAZE FORMATION TWD
DAYBREAK..BUT THIS COULD BE MITIGATED BY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ASSOC
WITH DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE SYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS TO START THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER OFF WITH SOME
HAZY-HOT AND HUMID WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH 65-70F DEWPOINTS MAKING
IT FEEL EVEN WARMER. WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS POINT...APPARENT TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL INTO
THE 90S ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AND MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE
SUSQ VLY DURG THE AFTERNOON. HWO NOTES HEAT RELATED PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MITIGATE THE EFFECT OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.

WARM MID-LVL/700MB TEMPS OF +10C ARE USUALLY A GOOD PROXY FOR A
CAPPING INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY KEEP A LID ON ANY
POTENTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ON THE EDGE
OF THE CAP ACRS THE FAR NE ZONES /NE OF IPT/ AS A VORT LOBE
ROTATES SEWD DOWN THE FRONT-SIDE OF THE RIDGE. MEAN POP BLEND
RESULTED IN SOME SCHC/S FOR THE AFTN BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM MEMORIAL DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH
CLIMATE RECORDS FOR HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT /SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW/.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SCORCHER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 90
TO THE MID 90S AS LARGE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 20C. MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN WARM AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP
CAP IN PLACE AND BRING VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS BY MID WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ACROSS SRN
CANADA...NUDGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TSTORMS. WED TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH THE
TREND FOR LATE WEEK BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY FOR LATE WEEK.

RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT EDGING NORTHWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW...BRINGING LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM FRI INTO SAT. TEMPS
WARM BACK UP SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT IT WILL NOT GET AS HOT AS MON-
TUE AS 850MB TEMPS...THOUGH WARMER AGAIN...REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN AVN WX CONCERN IS WITH THE SEVERE MCS CURRENTLY MOVG
ACRS LAKE ERIE. MDL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND MOVE ACRS NRN PA THIS EVE.
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS IT COULD BE EAST OF THE ENTIRE
REGION BY ARND MIDNIGHT. ADDNL TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AHEAD OF MCS
ON THE SRN FRINGES OF LAKE ERIE IN NRN OH AND NW PA. WILL MENTION
A PERIOD OF REDUCED GUSTY WINDS AND VSBYS/CIGS BTWN 02Z-03Z AT
BFD...BUT A MORE AGGRESSIVE TAF MAY BE NEEDED IF APPROACHING LINE
OF TSTMS HOLDS TOGETHER DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. UNV AND IPT
COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BE AFFECTED BY LINE OF TSTMS IN THE 03Z-04Z
TIMEFRAME.

IN WAKE OF MCS...HIGH LOW LVL MSTR/DEWPTS...M/CLR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
SFC WNDS SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR BR/HZ RESTRICTIONS OVR PARTS OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VERY WARM MID LVL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE A CAPPING INVERSION
AND MAINTAIN DRY WX IN PA THRU TUE. ASIDE FROM SOME MRNG
FOG...PREVAILING CONDS SHOULD BE VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MID-WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
AND LCL RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...TSRA POSSIBLE.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...TSRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY /MAY 30-31/ ARE FORECAST
TO APPROACH RECORD LEVELS AT OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES MDT/IPT.
THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THESE DATES AT MDT ARE 95 (1895) AND 97
(1939)...AND 96 (1895) AND 93 (1939) AT IPT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/RXR/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
625 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-302230-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
625 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME
BUT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ006-011-012-017-018-037-041-042-302230-
POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
625 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
LIKELY IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT PLANNED AT
THIS TIME BUT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS
OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-010-302230-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-
625 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 397 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
LIKELY IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT PLANNED AT
THIS TIME BUT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS
OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.