River Flood Warning 34, NWS State College, PA

826 
WGUS81 KCTP 170302
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  FRANKSTOWN BRANCH OF THE JUNIATA AT WILLIAMSBURG
  LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK
  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED BY SUNDAY MORNING OR AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

&&

PAC061-171502-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0033.110417T0300Z-110418T1200Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.110417T0300Z.110417T1800Z.110418T0600Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MIDNIGHT AND 
  CREST JUST BELOW 14.0 FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC099-171502-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110418T0000Z/
/SMDP1.2.ER.110417T0027Z.110417T0600Z.110417T1800Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* AT 10 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 11.5 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
* AT 11.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD AND OTHER LOW 
  LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO SHERMAN CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC041-133-171501-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-110418T2200Z/
/CPHP1.2.ER.110416T2331Z.110417T1200Z.110418T1600Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 10 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST JUST BELOW 12.0 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF YELLOW 
  BREECHES CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC013-061-171400-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0038.110417T0800Z-110417T1400Z/
/WIBP1.1.ER.110417T0800Z.110417T0800Z.110417T0800Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRANKSTOWN BRANCH OF THE JUNIATA AT WILLIAMSBURG.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* THE CURRENT RIVER LEVEL IS MISSING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IF FORECAT TO CREST BETWEEN 12.0 AND 13.0 FEET EARLY 
  SUNDAY MORNING. 
* AT 12.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH BANK OVERFLOWS. THE ROAD NEAR 
  THE RIVER UPSTREAM OF WILLIAMSBURG IS INUNDATED. A FEW HOMES 
  EXPERIENCE BASEMENT FLOODING.

$$

PAC013-061-171500-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0039.110417T0900Z-110417T1500Z/
/SPKP1.1.ER.110417T0900Z.110417T0900Z.110417T0900Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 10 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS...AFFECTING 
  SEVERAL HOMES.

$$

PAC027-109-119-171501-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110417T2000Z/
/PNCP1.1.ER.110417T0100Z.110417T0600Z.110417T1400Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK.
* AT 10 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 8.3 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE SUNDAY TOMORROW.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
  ROUTE 104 BRIDGE. A CAMPGROUND IS AFFECTED. A NUMBER OF SECONDARY 
  ROADS IN THE PENNS CREEK DRAINAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC041-171501-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0035.110417T0553Z-000000T0000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.110417T0553Z.110418T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  SUNDAY AND CREST NEAR 10.0 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC043-075-107-171501-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0040.110417T0300Z-110418T0351Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.110417T0300Z.110417T1200Z.110417T2151Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AND 
  CREST NEAR 11.0 FEET SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-075-171501-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0041.110417T0400Z-110418T1124Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.110417T0400Z.110417T1700Z.110418T0524Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT 
  SUNDAY AND CREST BETWEEN 8.0 AND 8.5 FEET EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS. SEVERAL ROADS 
  ARE AFFECTED.

$$

727 
WGUS81 KCTP 170639
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
238 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  FRANKSTOWN BRANCH OF THE JUNIATA AT WILLIAMSBURG

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-133-171839-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CPHP1.3.ER.110416T2331Z.110417T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 13.4 FEET BY THIS MORNING THEN BEGIN 
  FALLING.
* AT 13.0 FEET...NUMEROUS HOMES ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF YELLOW 
  BREECHES CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS.

$$

PAC061-171839-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-110418T1200Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.110417T0247Z.110417T1800Z.110418T0600Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 13.8 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC099-171839-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110418T0000Z/
/SMDP1.2.ER.110417T0027Z.110417T0615Z.110417T1800Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS 
  AFTERNOON.
* AT 11.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD AND OTHER LOW 
  LYING AREAS ADJACENT TO SHERMAN CREEK ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC013-061-171339-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110417T1339Z/
/WIBP1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110417T0630Z.110417T0739Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRANKSTOWN BRANCH OF THE JUNIATA AT WILLIAMSBURG.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST BETWEEN 12 AND 13 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. 
* AT 13.0 FEET...SECTIONS OF ROUTE 866 FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO GANISTER 
  ARE COVERED BY FLOOD WATERS.

$$

PAC041-171839-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.110417T0339Z.110418T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.9 FEET BY THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN 
  FALLING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC043-075-107-171839-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-110418T0351Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.110417T0231Z.110417T1200Z.110417T2151Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 10.9 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-075-171839-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-110418T1124Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.110417T0237Z.110417T1700Z.110418T0524Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 8.3 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS. SEVERAL ROADS 
  ARE AFFECTED.

$$

PAC027-109-119-170709-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110417T2000Z/
/PNCP1.1.ER.110417T0100Z.110417T0232Z.110417T0341Z.NO/
239 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK.
* AT 2 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12 AM SUNDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 5.8 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
  ROUTE 104 BRIDGE. A CAMPGROUND IS AFFECTED. A NUMBER OF SECONDARY 
  ROADS IN THE PENNS CREEK DRAINAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF CHICAGO AT 15Z WILL CONTINUE UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL A
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE STAYS VERY
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A POWERFUL UPPER LOW SPINNING OUT OF
ILLINOIS TWD OHIO. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING RAPIDLY NOW FROM THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS UP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTNING
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RADAR SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION...STARTING TO TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE
OF A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND IN THIS AREA.

ALL INDICATORS CONTINUE TO POINT TO AN EVENTFUL AFTERNOON AS THE
60-85KT SSE LOW LEVEL JET COMES ROARING THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOMALY CHARTS SHOW ALL THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND GUST EVENT SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX...A +4 TO +6 STD DEV LOW LEVEL
JET...PWATS SURGING TO 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AND THE TRADEMARK
EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE ALL SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE AREA DESPITE BEING COLD AIR
DAMMED AT THE CURRENT TIME. ADDITIONALLY...HRRR OUTPUT DEVELOPS
THIS STRONG NCFRB FEATURE FOR BETWEEN 20-23Z OR SO. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WE WILL HAVE A GOOD 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS IT EXITING THE MY EASTERN ZONES BETWEEN
ABOUT 9PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AND MOVE EAST. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS AND 09Z
SREF ALL POINT TO PRECIP BEING BASICALLY OVER BY ABOUT 03Z. THE
USUAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE LAURELS AND PORTIONS
OF THE NW MOUNTAINS...BUT ESSENTIALLY THE STORM WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS SEE AT LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CREATE A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PENN.

WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE GUSTY
IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE AS A 50 KT WESTERLY WIND MAX AT 850 MB
SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A COLD POOL AT 700-500 MB /-12C AT 700 MB...AND -30C AT 500 MB/
WILL CROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO
GENERATE SCTD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. THE RAIN
COULD BE MIXED WITH WET SNOW FLAKES SUNDAY MORNING AT ELEVATIONS AOA
1800 FT MSL OVER NWRN PENN.

HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S INVOF KBFD...TO
AROUND 60F IN OUR FAR SE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFTING LONG WAVE TROF WILL LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IN
ITS WAKE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO  DROP INTO
THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK...LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
MID ATLC REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK. AFOREMENTIONED TROF IS FCST TO
LIFT THRU THE REGION THUR INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF SIG PCPN.
A SHORT PD OF DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TOWARD PA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

EXPECT A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING OUT ACROSS NRN PENN
FOR AWHILE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND INTO NEW YORK
STATE ON LATER TUESDAY INTO WED. THERE IS SOME NORTH TO SOUTH
VARIATION IN POSITION OF WARM FRONT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BASED ON
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER...THE BEST
CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NWRN HALF OF PENN MON-TUE. MONDAYS
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAYS...THEN TUESDAY LOOKS TO
BE 5-10F WARMER AS RIDGE SHARPENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

WED WE'LL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND LOOKS TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY SLIDES NORTH OF PA WHILE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 60S/70S /NEARLY 15F ABOVE
NORMAL/ BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE STATE BRINGING SCT
THUNDERSTORMS LATER WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST ON THU AS SECONDARY
TROUGH APPROACHES...BRINGING ABOUT A 10F COOL DOWN THU FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER 5-10F COOL DOWN FOR FRI AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BRINGS MORE SETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS/LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FROPA BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AFTER FROPA.

VERY STRONG SELY LL JET OF 50-70KTS IS PRODUCING LLWS/GUSTY SFC
WNDS AND ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA. RADAR SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH ARE HEAVY...ALL STREAKING NORTH
OUT OF THE MID ATL STATES.

HRRR MODEL DATA INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW LINE OF
STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ABOUT
20-23Z...WITH THESE WORKING ACROSS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. IF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
MANAGES TO FORM...WE COULD SEE BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER 50KT
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS DROPPING VIZ UNDER A MILE FOR A TIME.

AFTER FROPA...SFC WNDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WSW THEN TO THE WEST/NW
AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. COLDER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT OCNL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY OVR WRN
SXNS GIVEN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CONDS WILL IMPROVE E OF THE MTNS
WHILE BFD/JST LKLY STAY MVFR OR LOWER INTO SUN MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.
THU...VFR

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ006-012-018-
019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ028-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004-005-010-
011-017-024-025-033-034.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ017>019-
024>027-033>036.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

PAZ006-012-037-041-171000-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

PAZ004-005-010-011-171000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS SHOULD RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

PAZ064>066-171000-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 152 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
STATE COLLEGE.

PAZ036-171000-
FRANKLIN-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 152 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE.

PAZ017-024-033-171000-
CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
STATE COLLEGE.

PAZ026-035-171000-
HUNTINGDON-FULTON-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 152 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE.

PAZ018-019-171000-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE.

PAZ025-034-171000-
BLAIR-BEDFORD-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 152 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE.

PAZ028-050-056>059-063-171000-
JUNIATA-SNYDER-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 152 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE.

PAZ042-045-046-049-051>053-171000-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE.

PAZ027-171000-
MIFFLIN-
559 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 152 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...
FLOODING...AND WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE
COLLEGE.

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

PAZ036-063>065-162030-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-YORK PA-
353 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT ADAMS...EASTERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN YORK AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 345 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
ORRSTOWN TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF HAGERSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE NEAR SHIPPENSBURG AROUND 400 PM...PINE GROVE FURNACE AROUND
415 PM AND GERMANTOWN AROUND 430 PM. DOWNED TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED ALONG THIS LINE AS IT CROSSED WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4012 7769 4014 7701 3972 7705 3972 7772

FORECASTER: KF