Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flood Watches in 2011

Flood Watch 7, NWS State College, PA

September 5, 201133 counties in Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this flood watch at Sep 5, 2011, 9:07 PM EDT for 33 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 71 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 5, 2011, 9:07 PM EDT (01:07 UTC)
Expired
Sep 8, 2011, 7:59 PM EDT
In force
71 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
Flood severity
None
All 33 counties

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 2011-09-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 451 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 00:00Z on 2011-09-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 104 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
451 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
562 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
142 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

284 
WGUS61 KCTP 060107
FFACTP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
907 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

.A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF STATES WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

PAZ019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-
070115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0007.110906T0107Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
907 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ADAMS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA... 
  COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN...FULTON... 
  HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...MIFFLIN... 
  MONTOUR...NORTHERN LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY... 
  SCHUYLKILL...SNYDER...SOMERSET...SOUTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN 
  CLINTON...SOUTHERN LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...UNION AND YORK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE AREA
  TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
  REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
  PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY...THEN THE REST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
  NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
  TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY
  OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. 

* SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR...WIDESPREAD MODERATE
  FLOODING COULD OCCUR. RIVER FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
  WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS COULD LINGER
  INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON SMALL
STREAMS...CREEKS...POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS
BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-070115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FA.A.0007.110907T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-
907 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CAMERON...CLEARFIELD...ELK...MCKEAN... 
  NORTHERN CENTRE...NORTHERN CLINTON...POTTER...TIOGA AND 
  WARREN. 

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DID NOT SEE MUCH RAIN AS
  CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THE LAST 2 DAYS.
  HOWEVER...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
  THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO
  WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

* SHOULD WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR...WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING
  WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON SMALL
STREAMS...CREEKS...POOR DRAINAGE...URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS
BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

MARTIN/FITZGERALD
7 follow-up statements
642 
WGUS61 KCTP 060922
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...

.A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MERGE
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

PAZ019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-
070930-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
522 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ADAMS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...COLUMBIA... 
  CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN...FULTON...HUNTINGDON... 
  JUNIATA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHERN 
  LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...SCHUYLKILL...SNYDER... 
  SOMERSET...SOUTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN 
  LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...UNION AND YORK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE
  EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED LOCAL
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-070930-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.110907T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-
522 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...CAMERON...CLEARFIELD...ELK...MCKEAN...NORTHERN 
  CENTRE...NORTHERN CLINTON...POTTER...TIOGA AND WARREN. 

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE
  EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED LOCAL
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

MS/GD
497 
WGUS61 KCTP 062217
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

.A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MERGE
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLOODING AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

PAZ019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-
072230-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
617 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ADAMS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...COLUMBIA... 
  CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN...FULTON...HUNTINGDON... 
  JUNIATA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHERN 
  LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...SCHUYLKILL...SNYDER... 
  SOMERSET...SOUTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN 
  LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...UNION AND YORK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE
  EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED LOCAL
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-072230-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.110907T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-
617 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...CAMERON...CLEARFIELD...ELK...MCKEAN...NORTHERN 
  CENTRE...NORTHERN CLINTON...POTTER...TIOGA AND WARREN. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE
  EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED LOCAL
  AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

RXR
957 
WGUS61 KCTP 070843
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
443 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

.DEEP MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...SETTING UP AN AXIS OF VERY
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-080845-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
443 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ADAMS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...CAMERON... 
  CLEARFIELD...COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...ELK... 
  FRANKLIN...FULTON...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...LANCASTER... 
  LEBANON...MCKEAN...MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHERN CENTRE... 
  NORTHERN CLINTON...NORTHERN LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND... 
  PERRY...POTTER...SCHUYLKILL...SNYDER...SOMERSET...SOUTHERN 
  CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN LYCOMING...SULLIVAN... 
  TIOGA...UNION...WARREN AND YORK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
  HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...WITH
  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

MS/DM/JC/MD
027 
WGUS61 KCTP 071551
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1151 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS ALREADY CAUSED FLOOD
ISSUES AND MADE THE REGION MORE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. INTENSE
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS WILL BRING ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION. RAIN-BANDS MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE FLOODING. RAPID RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE RAPID FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-081600-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1151 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ADAMS...BEDFORD...BLAIR...CAMBRIA...CAMERON... 
  CLEARFIELD...COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...ELK... 
  FRANKLIN...FULTON...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...LANCASTER... 
  LEBANON...MCKEAN...MIFFLIN...MONTOUR...NORTHERN CENTRE... 
  NORTHERN CLINTON...NORTHERN LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND... 
  PERRY...POTTER...SCHUYLKILL...SNYDER...SOMERSET...SOUTHERN 
  CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN LYCOMING...SULLIVAN... 
  TIOGA...UNION...WARREN AND YORK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
  HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES...WITH
  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING WILL IMPACT SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WHICH MAY CROSS
  ROADS. FIELDS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AND DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER
  RAINFALL LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...AND UNDER PASSES WILL SEE
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
609 
WGUS61 KCTP 080128
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
928 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...

.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS ALREADY
CAUSED WIDESPREAD STREAM FLOODING...AND THE FLOOD WATERS WILL FEED
INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVERS NORTH AND WEST BRANCHES EARLY THURSDAY
PUSHES MANY POINTS TO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGES. SEVERAL 
TRIBUTARIES OF THE SUSQUEHANNA WILL EXCEED ALL TIME RECORD FLOOD
LEVELS.

INTENSE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND BRING ADDITIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA 
VALLEY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND ADJACENT NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NARROW BANDS.

RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE -
BANDS MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MORE FLOODING. RAPID RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD PRODUCE RAPID FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-025-033>035-080230-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-
928 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. OCCASIONAL...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. 

$$

PAZ006-012-018-019-026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-090000-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
928 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ADAMS...COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN... 
  HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...MIFFLIN... 
  MONTOUR...NORTHERN CENTRE...NORTHERN CLINTON...NORTHERN 
  LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...POTTER...SCHUYLKILL... 
  SNYDER...SOUTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN 
  LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...TIOGA...UNION AND YORK. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
  HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...WITH
  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING WILL IMPACT SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WHICH MAY CROSS 
  ROADS. FIELDS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AND DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER 
  RAINFALL LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS...AND UNDER PASSES WILL SEE 
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

LAMBERT
586 
WGUS61 KCTP 081249
FFACTP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
849 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN AND POCONOS...

.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS ALREADY
CAUSED WIDESPREAD AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING. SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS MAY HAVE RECEDED A BIT...BUT MAY RISE ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS
THE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUES IN THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 


PAZ006-012-018-019-026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-090000-
/O.CON.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
849 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...ADAMS...COLUMBIA...CUMBERLAND...DAUPHIN...FRANKLIN... 
  HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...LANCASTER...LEBANON...MIFFLIN... 
  MONTOUR...NORTHERN CENTRE...NORTHERN CLINTON...NORTHERN 
  LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...PERRY...POTTER...SCHUYLKILL... 
  SNYDER...SOUTHERN CENTRE...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN 
  LYCOMING...SULLIVAN...TIOGA...UNION AND YORK. 

* UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE
  EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...WITH
  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THOSE HIGHER
  AMOUNTS WILL BE MOST POSSIBLE IN PLACES TO THE EAST OF
  HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT.

* FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WHICH
  MAY CROSS ROADS AND POTENTIALLY WASH THEM OUT. FIELDS WILL
  LIKELY FLOOD AND DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL LOW LYING
  AREAS...ROADS...AND UNDER PASSES WILL SEE FLOODING. RIVER
  FLOODING ON AN HISTORICAL SCALE WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF
  THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER MAIN STEM AND LOWER PORTION OF THE WEST
  BRANCH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS ONGOING FLOODING OR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS AND GROUND
CONDITIONS. 

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

DANGELO
450 
WGUS61 KCTP 082359
FFACTP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
759 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.BANDS OF SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.


PAZ026>028-036-056-063>065-091200-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.FF.A.0012.110909T0000Z-110909T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
759 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...ADAMS...CUMBERLAND... 
  FRANKLIN...HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...MIFFLIN...PERRY AND YORK. 

* THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING. 

* SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
  DRIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
  THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY COME BETWEEN 10 PM AND 5 AM.
  RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH IN JUST 60 TO 90 MINUTES COULD
  CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE
  PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA NOT ALREADY COVERED BY
  FLOOD WARNINGS.

* FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
  NEAR...AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER'S MAINSTEM.
  RIVER FLOODING ON AN HISTORICAL SCALE WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG
  MUCH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER MAIN STEM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&


$$

PAZ006-012-018-019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-066-090100-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-110909T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-LANCASTER-
759 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH WILL NOT BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...OR EXACERBATE THE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALREADY
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

$$

PAZ025-034-035-091200-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FF.A.0012.110909T0000Z-110909T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BLAIR-BEDFORD-FULTON-
759 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BEDFORD...BLAIR AND FULTON. 

* THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING. 

* SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST
  ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF THE
  RAIN WILL LIKELY COME BETWEEN 10 PM AND 5 AM. RAINFALL RATES OF
  UP TO ONE INCH IN JUST 60 TO 90 MINUTES COULD CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

LAMBERT/FITZGERALD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Sep 5, 8:44 PM EDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 5, 8:44 PM EDT, 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
844 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EVENING. THE
REMAINS OF LEE WILL MERGE WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE AND
CONTINUE THE WET WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST MESO ANAL SHOWS THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PRETTY MUCH
BISECTING THE FCST AREA FROM NE-SW. RADAR SHOWS A GENERAL AREA OF
DISORGANIZED RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST IN THE WARMER AIR. PWATS ARE NEAR 2" OVER SERN PA AND MORE
THAN 1.5" FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...AND FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED
THE DEEP MOISTURE RIGHT INTO THE REGION.

15Z HRRR SHOWS THE CONTINUATION OF THE COOL AIR RAINS AND NOW IS
BACKING OFF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS FURTHER EAST. THIS SEEMS
TO MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

REGARDLESS OF IF WE CAN DEVELOP ORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION...IT
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED RIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A LOOK UPSTREAM
SHOWS RAIN FUNNELING ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF STATES. AS THE GR
LAKES TROF CONTINUES TO DIG AND SLIDE EAST...SEEMS LIKELY IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAG UP MOISTURE ORIGINATING WITH THE OLD TS LEE INTO
THE FCST AREA.

WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT OVER EASTERN AREAS
CONTINUE AS THERE ARE HINTS OF SMALL STORMS DEVELOPING AND FFG IS
PRETTY LOW THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING TUESDAY AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
START HINTING AT THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EXCESSIVE RAIN EVENT. THE
DEEP GR LAKES TROF DRAGS THE REMNANTS OF LEE NORTHEASTWARD AND
FUNNELS THINGS RIGHT INTO PA OVER THE ENSUING COUPLE OF DAYS.
OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS GIVE CUMULATIVE QPF AMOUNTS OF 6-13 INCHES
OVER A WIDE AREA BETWEEN TUES AND THURS. COORD WITH HPC SHOWS 6+
INCH QPF BETWEEN TUES AM AND WED EVE.

GEFS SHOWS A SURGE OF ANOMALOUS PWAT...+1-3 STD DEV BEGINNING TO
MOVE IN LATER IN THE DAY TUES. BIGGEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO
BE LINING UP FOR LATER TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THURS.
GEFS SHOWS A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 48 HR RAINFALLS OF
AT LEAST 4 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU WED NIGHT AS A DEEP
ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW GETS REPLACED BY AN ANOMALOUS SSE FLOW.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKE WHAT ARE BEING OUTPUT IN THE GUIDANCE WOULD
LEAD TO SOME PRETTY SERIOUS FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 15F OR SO BELOW NORMAL AS THE MUCH
COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS...BATTLES WITH THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z NAM/GFS AND EC ALL INDICATE A VERY RAINY PERIOD ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS IN
PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...THE SREF CONTAINS U-WIND
ANOMALIES OF ABOUT -3 ST DEVIATIONS WHILE THE V-WIND ANOMALY IS A
HEFTY PLUS 3-4 AIMED RIGHT INTO CENTRAL PENN.

RAINFALL DURING THE 24-36 HOURS THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY COULD TOP 4
OR 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENN AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION PWAT AIR /OF APPROX
45-50MM/ IS TRANSPORTED NNWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
VIA THE PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS LLVL FLOW. DEEP UVVEL BENEATH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KT JET TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE
WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS TO CREATE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN-
MAKING MACHINE.

WILL BE WAITING AT LEAST FEW MORE MODEL CYCLES TO EXAMINE TRENDS
OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS BEFORE HOISTING ANY ADDITIONAL FLAGS
FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND BY 6-7F FROM TUESDAY'S CHILLY DAYTIME
READINGS.

ANOTHER CFRONT PUSHES THRU BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO BRING
SOME DRYING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE REMNANTS OF TS LEE WILL FILL IN/LIFT TO THE SE LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
REGION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NEWD AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR. CIGS THIS EVENING MOSTLY IN THE MVFR
RANGE. HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTH TO NE OVERNIGHT...THE
RESULTING OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL LIKELY DROP CIGS TO IFR.

THE REMNANTS OF T.S. LEE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...CAUSING THE RAINFALL TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PA ON TUESDAY...WHILE SOMEWHAT BETTER CONDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PROLONGED IFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ019-024>028-
033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 5, 4:35 AM EDT, 16 hours 32 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
435 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-045-060845-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
435 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE VIA STANDARD PROCEDURES.

PAZ028-036-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-060845-
JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
435 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE VIA STANDARD PROCEDURES.

PAZ037-041-060845-
TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
435 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE VIA STANDARD PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 5, 6:16 PM EDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
616 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

PAZ066-052245-
LANCASTER PA-
616 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...A SHOWER WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
LANCASTER COUNTY...

AT 612 PM EDT...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH WAS NEAR LITITZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS SHOWER WILL AFFECT BRICKERVILLE AND DENVER.

LAT...LON 4013 7625 4022 7636 4026 7631 4032 7615
      4023 7601

FORECASTER:

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 5, 11:42 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPAdams, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York3 hr
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPBlair, Huntingdon42 hr
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPBlair, Huntingdon32 hr
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPHuntingdon44 hr
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPCentre, Snyder, Union45 hr
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPCumberland, York67 hr
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPPerry45 hr
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPDauphin, Lebanon, Schuylkill4 days
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPDauphin, Lebanon4 days
Sep 6, 12:00 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPDauphin6 days
Sep 6, 12:06 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningCTPBedford, Blair, Cambria, Somerset34 hr
Sep 6, 5:16 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPCumberland62 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in Pennsylvania, 2011Every flood watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.