Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND A TRAILING UPPER LOW
LIFTING NORTH FROM NEAR YOUNGSTOWN OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN
BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TODAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWEEP THE PLUME OF HEAVY RAINS OUT OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A FAST MOVING TROUGH
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST TO NEAR A KIPT TO KMUI LINE AT 06Z
AND WILL PUSH THE STEADIER HEAVIER RAINS OUT OF THE CWA DURING THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SCATTERED WET SNOW
SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK.

POTENT VORT LOBE LIFTING NWD JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN OHIO WILL BRING A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST MTNS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LAURELS...AND ALSO NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF KBFD.
THINK WARREN COUNTY WILL SEE ENOUGH OF A ONE...TWO PUNCH FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH...THEN A DEEP/WELL ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER
AIR ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE
UNTIL 03Z SAT. ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES IN THE
EAST...TO 5 OR 6 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELT TO THE WEST OF THE CITY
OF WARREN.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE TO COVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING ALONG THE SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. 10 LARGER
CREEK/RIVER FLOOD POINTS ARE CURRENTLY OVER FLOOD STAGE...AND THE
REST ARE STILL RISING WITH A TOTAL OF 19 CREEK/RIVER WARNINGS IN
EFFECT. EXPECT A FEW OF THE SMALLER POINTS TO BEGIN TO RECEDE
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST WILL EITHER CONTINUE TO RISE OR
ONLY CREST. THE LARGER POINTS WILL STILL BE RISING...THOUGH...AND
FLOODING ALMOST CERTAIN AT MANY OF THOSE GAUGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS IN MID-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE CWA...WITH JUST SOME PASSING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FURTHER TO THE
EAST. MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT MEASURE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE UP TO A FEW
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL...MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TEMPS STILL GET INTO THE U40S IN THE SE THANKS TO MORE SS AND
DOWNSLOPE WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WEEKEND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND REINFORCING
WAVE AND COLD AIR. BUT HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USHER
IN DRIER A WORK WEEK. MOST OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD BE ON THE DRY
SIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A REINFORCING SHORT-WAVE DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WITH MODEST INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN AREAS AND LAURELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY. THIS SNOW COULD GET AS
FAR EAST AS WILLIAMSPORT-STATE COLLEGE AND ALTOONA BUT SHORT-LIVED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OF NO CONSEQUENCE IF IT OCCURS. THE SREF IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE AND NO LONGER HINTS OF THIS SYSTEM GETTING TOO FAR
SOUTH INTO PA.

THE COMING WORK WEEK....HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT AND PUT AN END TO THE
SHOWERY REGIME. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST TUESDAY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEK...A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK COULD BRING SOME
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. CURRENT GEFS WOULD FAVOR CHANCE RAIN FRIDAY. BUT TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRES INVOF LAKE ONTARIO WITH TRAILING OCCLD FNT/WIND SHIFT
ALONG IPT-MDT LINE AT 06Z. MOD TO HVY RNFL WILL CONT E OF THIS
LINE THROUGH 12Z. COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYS WILL BRING SNOW AND IFR CONDS AT BFD/JST. IMPROVING CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE MTNS THRU THE PD. WSWLY WIND GUSTS
20-25KTS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND OCNL -SHSN OVER
THE NW MTNS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES FROM THE GRT LKS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR/IFR WEST WITH SCT -SHSN. VFR CENTRAL AND EAST.
MON-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
905 PM EST THU MAR 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     FLOOD            TREMONT                 40.63N  76.39W
03/10/2011                   SCHUYLKILL         PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER ACROSS PARTS OF ROUTE 209. STREAMS NEAR OR OVER
            BANKFULL COUNTYWIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100007

EVANEGO