Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1128 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE HAS MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FALLING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
IRENE...FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT TO MODERATE DEFORMATION RAIN IN THE WAKE
OF WHAT/S NOW TROPICAL STORM IRENE...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
GENERALLY ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL FALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
LOCALIZED ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.

TAIL...WRN EDGE OF THE THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS NEAR A KFKL
AND KIDI LINE AND MOVING NE AT ABOUT 10-13 KTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS EARLIER ISSUED FOR ALL OF SULLIVAN CTY
AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF LYCOMING AND NRN COLUMBIA COUNTIES.
BGM NOTED EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING WITH ROADS CLOSED AND SEVERAL
BRIDGES WASHED OUT ACROSS ADJACENT WYOMING COUNTY TO THE EAST.

A FLOOD WARNING FOR YORK COUNTY WAS RECENTLY ISSUED AND COUNTY EMA
OFFICIALS NOTED A FEW ROAD CLOSURES FROM WATER OCCURRING MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CITY OF YORK.

ELSEWHERE...A FLOOD ADVISORY COVERS SEVERAL ERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF 3-5 INCHES FELL FROM IRENE.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z...SINCE
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE NEW
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE CURRENT PROBLEMS.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE WELL-MIXED LAYER TAPPING 45-50KT WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

DOWNED TREES AND NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE ERN THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWA WILL BE THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM THIS STORM IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SEVERAL DEG F BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH...TO UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS DIE OFF NICELY THIS EVENING AS WE DECOUPLE AND IRENE RUNS
OFF INTO THE MARITIMES. LITTLE WORRIES FOR TONIGHT...BUT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND AREAS IN THE SE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG. DRY
AND NICE WX IN STORE FOR MONDAY...BUT A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL ROLL OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY...AND WILL KEEP IT MORE- CLOUDY
THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. MAXES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMS...BUT GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THERE IS A DECIDEDLY LESS ACTIVE PATTERN IN
STORM FOR MUCH OF THE U.S. A FAIR AND DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE REPLACED BY A RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST WHICH COULD INTERACT AND BRING A
CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LATE NEXT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH....EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE US...COULD BRING AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING AND STRENGTH WILL VARY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TROPICAL STORM IRENE PASSING HAS MOVED INLAND JUST NORTH OF NEW
YORK CITY. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 19Z ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PENN...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS CONTINUING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF A KELM TO
KIPT AND KTHV LINE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA...AS SURFACE WINDS OF 15-30KTS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS AT 2000 FT.

AS IRENE PULLS AWAY...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE REGION BY 20Z. HOWEVER...STRONG/GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUFFET THE AREA INTO THE AFTN...AND THE MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF BKN-OVC MVFR
STRATO CU THERE.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU...CHC OF PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ057>059-065-066.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042-053-
057>059-065-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG
TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

PAZ042-053-290615-
SULLIVAN-COLUMBIA-
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049>052-056-
063-064-290615-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057>059-065-066-290615-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-YORK-LANCASTER-
208 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPOTTERS...IF YOU HAVE A RAIN GAUGE...PLEASE REPORT A RAINFALL
TOTAL THIS MORNING.

DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISBURG              40.28N  76.88W
08/28/2011                   DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE FELL ON PORCH WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. LARGE
            BRANCH CAME DOWN ON CAR ON ELMERTON AVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100384

KREKELER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1210 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DUSHORE                 41.53N  76.40W
08/28/2011                   SULLIVAN           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALL MAJOR ROADS CLOSED IN SULLIVAN COUNTY DUE TO
            FLOODING. BRIDGE ON RT 487 AND RT 220 WASHED OUT. 30
            PEOPLE EVACUATED IN DUSHORE BOROUGH. MULTIPLE WATER
            RESCUES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100386

KREKELER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1211 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISBURG              40.28N  76.88W
08/28/2011                   DAUPHIN            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE FELL ON PORCH WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. LARGE
            BRANCH CAME DOWN ON CAR ON ELMERTON AVE.

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DUSHORE                 41.53N  76.40W
08/28/2011                   SULLIVAN           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALL MAJOR ROADS CLOSED IN SULLIVAN COUNTY DUE TO
            FLOODING. BRIDGE ON RT 487 AND RT 220 WASHED OUT. 30
            PEOPLE EVACUATED IN DUSHORE BOROUGH. MULTIPLE WATER
            RESCUES.

1120 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LANCASTER               40.04N  76.30W
08/28/2011                   LANCASTER          PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. 4100 PEOPLE
            WITHOUT POWER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100384 CTP1100386 CTP1100385

KREKELER