Wind Advisory 19, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WIDE EXPANSE OF MVFR
STRATUS MOVING/DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHTLY DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DEPTH
WHICH HAD BEEN PROGGED BY THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS SINCE YDA. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS THROUGH 13Z ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH TX. THERE WL EVEN BE SOME PATCHY IFR CEILINGS...
MAINLY ALONG A VCT TO ALI CORRIDOR. A LIFTING/DISSIPATION OF
CEILINGS WL ENSUE AFTER 14Z. BY 17Z...MOST AREAS WL BE IN THE VFR
RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WL LKLY
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES EVEN STRONGER THAN ON SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT WL BE QUITE COMMON. MVFR STRATUS
WL LKLY DEVELOP EVEN QUICKER INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE
COASTAL BEND ENGULFED BY STRATUS BY 02Z TMW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011/

DISCUSSION...DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TNT FROM
EARLIER ISOLATED MEXICAN CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...LOW STRATUS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE NW GULF WL BE IMPACTING THE CWA TNT. THE
FORECASTING SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH
TNT. AS A RESULT...WL GO WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS VERY
WARM TNT.

MARINE...DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR THE BAYS BASED UPON THE
LATEST TRENDS. ALSO...THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW TNT AND SO WINDS WL LKLY HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
SCA CRITERIA ALL NIGHT OVER THE BAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...EXPECT THE
SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS. SEAS WL FLIRT WITH 7 FT ALL NIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...CANCELLED THE LAST HOUR OF THE RFW FOR THE BRUSH
COUNTRY FOR TNT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER RED FLAG DAY FOR
SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN TWO COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND CRITICALLY LOW AFTN HUMIDITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  79  93  76  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          76  92  76  94  75  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            80 108  82 105  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             76  96  76  97  76  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  89  81  88  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           76 102  77 100  76  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  94  77  93  75  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  80  88  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR.

&&

MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-291100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEBB COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM THIS
EVENING...WHERE HEAT INDEX READING OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES WILL
CONTINUE.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS THROUGH 7 PM...WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 6 TO 9
FEET ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE AREA
BEACHES TODAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS UNTIL 9 PM. THE COMBINATION OF WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT IS
PRODUCING A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES ON
SUNDAY.

ELEVATED AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO AROUND 110 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY MAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 6 TO 9
FEET ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY.

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR